Key Points – GCAP vs. F-35?: Amidst severely strained relations with the US under President Trump, newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is reviewing the F-35 fighter deal, potentially seeking alternatives to reduce US defense dependency.
-Beyond considering European 4.5-generation jets, a significant option emerging is Canada potentially joining the UK-Italy-Japan Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP).
-This would provide Canada with a sixth-generation fighter by 2035, featuring advanced capabilities like drone control and AI, and would allow Ottawa to bypass future US platforms like the F-47, marking a major shift in its aerospace procurement strategy.
Canada Is Upset with the U.S. on F-35 – It’s Time to Work on a Different Fighter Jet Like GCAP?
It appears that Mark Carney has received enough support to win the election and remain Canada’s prime minister after voting was held on April 28.
The Liberal prime minister is also rethinking the defense relationship between his country and the United States. Carney is reviewing a deal with the Americans to purchase 88 F-35 stealth fighters and may consider an alternative fighter jet altogether, potentially canceling the F-35 purchase agreement.
Bye, F-35: Perhaps the JAS-39 Gripen or Eurofighter Typhoon Can Fit the Bill
Canada is examining whether it could choose Sweden’s JAS-39 Gripen or the Eurofighter Typhoon instead.
Another decision to ponder is whether to pursue a sixth-generation fighter. This could be accomplished by joining the existing consortium for the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) – a fighter manufacturing triumvirate made up of the United Kingdom, Japan, and Italy.
This would likely mean that Canada would opt out of purchasing the American F-47 NGAD sixth-generation fighter should it ever become available on the export market.
Trouble in Paradise
Carney has questioned the defense partnership between Canada and the United States. The prime minister said earlier this year that Canada’s relationship with the United States, “based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation, is over.”
GCAP Ultra-stealth Jet Brings Much to the Table
The GCAP next-generation fighter will likely have manned-unmanned teaming systems that can control a “Loyal Wingman” flight of drones. It is expected to have an artificial intelligence virtual co-pilot. The GCAP may have directed energy ability and the wherewithal to launch hypersonic weapons.
“The delta-wing design with a 50-degree sweep and an estimated 16.5-meter wingspan is reportedly about one-third larger than the Eurofighter Typhoon. The aircraft is expected to have a greater combat radius than current fighters using internal fuel alone, meeting long-range operational needs, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. A flight demonstrator is scheduled for 2027,” according to ArmyRecogntion.com. The GCAP ultra-stealth fighter is expected to be in full service by 2035.
American Tariffs and Insults Are Turning the Canadians Off
Carney is playing hard to get with the Americans since President Donald Trump slapped a 25 percent tariff on Canadian goods imported into the United States. Trump has also spoke of Canada as the “51st state” and repeatedly talked about merging the two countries. This made the election that Carney won about Canadian patriotism, nationalism, and which candidate could fight the American president better.
The United States has also pushed the narrative that NATO members should spend as much as 5 percent of their GDP on defense. This makes Carney wonder if the Americans would come to the Canadian rescue if trouble ensued. Canada may not want to work militarily with the United States as closely as it has in the past. Ottawa would thus be attracted to joining the GCAP program for their sixth-generation fighter option. Canada would like to diversify its procurement supply and manufacturing chain away from the United States.
MPs Wonder If the GCAP Consortium Would Accept Canada
David Chadwick, a British Liberal Democrat Member of Parliament, supplied parliamentary questions in March to the British Minister of Defense. Would Britain consider adding Canada to the GCAP consortium? Chadwick wondered if this would be a good way to promote new defense ties to allies around the world.
British Minister of State for Defense Procurement and Industry Maria Eagle said that the project “remained open to cooperation with additional countries, provided that such collaboration does not delay the program schedule and contributes to the development of future military capabilities.”
This was not a ringing endorsement of Canada joining, but it was not a “no” answer. Canada is not known for having a huge defense industrial base, but it is equipped with an adequate supply of engineers and designers who could be transferred to the GCAP program to help develop the fighter. Canada already has good military relations with the United Kingdom.
More importantly, it is a member of the “Five Eyes” intelligence sharing relationship with the United States, Britain, Australia, and New Zealand. This would allow the Canadians to have security clearances that would allow better collaboration with the United Kingdom.
The British and Canadians are natural partners for the GCAP. They have a long history of working together. Italy and Japan are allies. All countries involved could say the alliance with Canada is healthier than the one with the United States.
Trump’s hostile rhetoric is taking a toll and sending the Canadians to look elsewhere for military support. The GCAP is a real option that the Great White North can consider in the Carney-era. The defense relationship with the Americans may be on a death watch. This is too bad, as Ottawa looks elsewhere to fill the void. Even if Canada follows through with the full F-35 purchase, the success of this sale will be blunted by Canada’s joining of the GCAP partnership. They would then not need the F-47 if it were ever exported to foreign partners.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
