Key Points and Summary – President Trump announced a record $11.5 billion arms package for Taiwan, covering eight tranches: 82 HIMARS launchers, 420 ATACMS missiles, 60 self-propelled howitzers, $1B in drones, $700M in Javelin and TOW missiles, software/spares, and Harpoon refurbishment kits.
-Washington says the sale strengthens Taiwan’s credible defense; Taipei welcomed it as it boosts defense spending and a planned “T-Dome” air shield.
210123-N-VH871-1123 NAVAL AIR STATION SIGONELLA, Italy (Jan. 23, 2021) Aviation Ordnanceman 3rd Class Adam Vasquez, assigned to the “Grey Knights” of Patrol Squadron (VP) 46, installs an AGM-84D ‘Harpoon’ missile onto a P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, Jan. 23, 2021. VP-46 is currently forward-deployed to the U.S. Sixth Fleet area of operations and is assigned to Commander, Task Force 67, responsible for tactical control of deployed maritime patrol and reconnaissance squadrons throughout Europe and Africa. U.S. Sixth Fleet, headquartered in Naples, Italy, conducts a full spectrum of joint and naval operations, often in concert with allied and interagency partners, in order to advance U.S. national security interests and stability in Europe and Africa. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Austin Ingram/ Released)
Harpoon Block II. Image Credit: Boeing.
-Beijing condemned the move and warned of confrontation. Critics argue timing is risky amid a U.S.-China trade war, could undercut leverage before an April 2026 Xi summit, and may freeze arms-control talks.
-For Taiwan, these weapons echo Ukraine’s most effective tools.
Taiwan’s $11.5B Weapons Deal Is Summed Up in 1 Thing: Deterrence
President Donald Trump announced the biggest arms sale to Taiwan in history on December 17. The United States, if approved by Congress, will move more than $11 billion of weapons systems to Taipei. The Joe Biden administration authorized $8.4 billion in arms sales to Taiwan during his term.
Some of the Best Arms Systems in the US Military
The overall deal comprises eight different arms sales tranches. There are 82 high-mobility artillery rocket systems, or HIMARS, that have been so effective for the Ukrainians in the war against Russia. Also, Taiwan will receive 420 Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, another popular piece of military hardware for Volodymyr Zelensky’s forces.
Sixty self-propelled howitzers are also included, plus $1 billion worth of unmanned aerial systems and loitering drones. Moreover, there are Javelin and TOW anti-tank missiles valued at $700 million. Defense-related software and spare helicopter parts are part of the package, as are refurbishment kits for Harpoon anti-ship missiles. This totals $11.5 billion.
Modern Weapons Will Be a Difference Maker for Taiwan
The State Department said the sales are a significant part of “US national, economic, and security interests by supporting the recipient’s continuing efforts to modernize its armed forces and to maintain a credible defensive capability,” the Associated Press noted.
China Is Apoplectic
China, unsurprisingly, was furious. The Chinese Foreign Ministry declared that the arms deal would hurt diplomatic relations with the United States.
“The Taiwan independence’ forces on the island seek independence through force and resist reunification through force, squandering the hard-earned money of the people to purchase weapons at the cost of turning Taiwan into a powder keg,” said Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun.
Javelin missile firing.
Javelin Attack. Image Credit: Twitter Screenshot.
Guo said that Taiwan independence will not happen and that the weapons agreements will end up “backfiring.” He added that this deal could lead to military confrontation and war.
Taiwan Could Not Be Happier
Taiwan is predictably excited about the largesse from the United States. The Taiwanese believe they will become more self-sufficient and be able to deter Chinese attacks.
Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung was also appreciative of the Americans for their “long-term support for regional security and Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities.”
Taipei aims to spend 3.3 percent of its GDP on its military next year and 5 percent by 2030. Trump has asked Taiwan to invest 10 percent of its economic output in defense.
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te last month announced that his country would pursue a primary air defense and anti-missile project called the “Taiwan Dome,” also known as the “T-Dome.”
There Are Downsides to the Deal
While this arms package is great news for Taiwan and the systems it includes are among the best in the U.S. arsenal, it comes at an unhelpful time. The U.S.-China relationship is hanging by a thread due to the ongoing trade war. I have declared in a book draft and in a video podcast recorded yesterday that Trump should refrain from arms transfers to Taiwan until the planned summit between the American president and Chinese Supreme Leader Xi Jinping takes place in April 2026 in Beijing.
Losing Leverage With Xi Jinping
Trump could have used a potential arms deal with Taiwan as leverage against Xi in the talks. The diplomatic strategy could have been forcing China to bend on the trade disagreements or face a large arms sale to Taiwan. Now, the record level of weapons systems could derail the talks, and Xi could cancel the summit as a result. He may even recall Chinese diplomats from Washington, DC.
Trump has been a proponent of boosting the defense industrial base, and this has been a goal of his throughout his second term. These arms systems will provide a shot in the arm to U.S. economic development and job growth in the defense sector.
Javelin anti-tank missile. Image Credit: YouTube Screenshot.
Taiwan Defense Strategy Sends Mixed Signals
Meanwhile, the recent White House National Security Strategy is vague on the Taiwan question. Trump wants the situation between the United States and Taiwan to remain as it has for years, with no change to the status quo, according to the document.
Arms Control Talks May Have No Future
The arms sales will also affect arms control negotiations with China. The People’s Republic has an estimated 600 nuclear warheads in its stockpile and wants to have 1,000 by 2030. The Chinese have walked away from arms limitation talks in the past because of U.S. support for Taiwan.
Now, arms control is unlikely to be a topic at the April summit if it happens. China is also upset about the Golden Dome missile shield that Trump has called for, and will be incensed that Taiwan is also pursuing its own protective air defense bubble.
If I were advising Trump, I would have told him to delay the deal for better leverage in the trade talks. It is not clear which members of the administration pushed for the arms package at this particular time.
Secretary of Defense Marco Rubio and acting National Security Advisor are China hawks, as is Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. The SECDEF’s leading strategist, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, is likely to favor the arms transfer because he believes the United States should place greater emphasis on countering China.
There is one exemplary aspect of the arms deal. It is robust and has arms systems that have successfully fought the Russians in Ukraine. The Ukrainians love HIMARS and ATACMs, and they have a special affinity for Javelin anti-tank missiles. Taiwan could learn to use these systems very effectively during a Chinese attack.
Moving Heaven and Earth to Help Taiwan
This is an earth-shattering announcement by the Trump administration, given its monetary value and capabilities. China is furious, and that could affect the prospects for a successful trade and tariff outcome. Do not expect Xi Jinping to arrive at the April summit in a good mood and without the leverage of arms sales to Taiwan; breaking new ground diplomatically will be difficult. The winner in all of this is Taipei, and if the Taiwanese can successfully wield these weapons, it could make a difference in potential combat with China.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood
Author of now over 3,000 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
