Key Points and Summary – The F-22 Raptor was built to dominate Soviet fighters and advanced radar, yet production ended at fewer than 200 jets after the Cold War and the Obey Amendment killed all export prospects.
-Defense expert Caleb Larson traces how a platform designed to replace the F-15 became a budget victim in a world suddenly short on peer threats.
-That self-inflicted scarcity helped drive the Next Generation Air Dominance program and Trump’s new sixth-generation F-47, now touted as the future of U.S. air superiority.
-The big unknown: will Washington repeat the F-22’s export ban, or turn the F-47 into a global fighter franchise?
From 750 F-22 Raptors to F-47 NGAD: How Washington Threw Away Air Superiority
It is a question that has been repeatedly analyzed, poked at, and examined in depth: the United States’ decision to end production of the F-22 Raptor.
Initially, the United States Air Force planned to acquire 750 of the stealthy air superiority fighters.
Ultimately, however, the U.S. Air Force settled for less than 200.
The Raptor is arguably one of the world’s stealthiest fifth-generation fighters, and its origin story begins with the Advanced Tactical Fighter competition, conducted by the United States Air Force.
That program, known by its acronym, ATF, was tasked with finding a replacement platform for the F-15 Eagle.
One of the highly successful Teen Series aircraft, the F-15 benefited from a notably large payload capacity, high top speed, and a respectable combat range, which could be significantly expanded through the integration of additional fuel stores and aerial refueling.
But capable though the F-15 was, it lacked any sort of stealth capabilities, leaving the aircraft potentially vulnerable in highly contested environments with robust air defenses.
Concurrently with the proliferation of increasingly sophisticated air defenses, the United States’ chief geopolitical rival, the Soviet Union, also saw a new crop of competent aircraft enter service.
In particular, the Su-27 and MiG-29 were major sources of concern for the United States Air Force. Both of these Soviet fourth-generation aircraft are highly maneuverable.
Advanced derivatives of other aircraft, like the blisteringly fast MiG-25 interceptor jet, were further sources of concern for the United States Air Force.
Another worrying fact for the United States was the Soviet Air Force’s increasingly sophisticated airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) platforms, particularly the Beriev A-50.
In essence, a flying radar platform, assets like the Beriev A-50 worked in conjunction with ground-based radar systems to expose fighter and bomber formations. They gave the era’s crop of non-stealthy aircraft precious little space to hide from prying radar eyes.
The F-22 Raptor was built specifically to counter Soviet radar capabilities — and would, in all likelihood, have done so better than any contemporary fighter — had it not been for the somewhat unexpected collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent end of Cold War hostilities.
Following the collapse, the United States Air Force and the entire American military establishment were in an unprecedented position.
Without any credible peer threats from nation-states following the end of the Cold War, the Pentagon sought to save money where possible, and an exquisite fighter jet without a clear adversary was ripe for the chopping block.
The Raptor’s future was further curbed by the Obey Amendment, a small piece of legislation that effectively put the kibosh on the F-22’s future. Penned by United States Representative David R. Obey (and hence the legislation’s name), the amendment prohibits the sale of F-22 Raptors abroad — even to close friends and allies of the United States.
Out with the Old, in with the New
In any event, the days of the F-22 Raptor are further numbered: the United States Air Force has selected its air superiority fighter of the future, and the airplane that will replace the Raptor: the F-47 sixth-generation fighter.
President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the selection of the F-47 to great fanfare from the White House earlier this year. Speaking from the Oval Office, the President sounded a jubilant note. “I’m thrilled to announce that, at my direction, the United States Air Force is moving forward with the world’s first sixth-generation fighter jet,” he said, adding that “nothing in the world comes even close” to rivaling the F-47’s capabilities.
While that jet, the F-47, is nominally named after the P-47 of Second World War fame, the number is also a nod to the President himself, who is currently the United States’ 47th president.
In a twist of irony, the self-imposed restrictions placed on the F-22 Raptor program by American lawmakers may, in the end, have helped the Next Generation Air Dominance program, which sourced the Raptor’s replacement.
Had the United States Air Force not limited the Raptor production run, would there have been today’s acute need for particularly advanced air superiority fighters? Perhaps.
But part of the impetus for the NGAD competition was the rather diminutive F-22 fleet.
Had the United States Air Force acquired the originally-envisioned 750-strong Raptor fleet, America’s flying branch would have an overwhelming air superiority force — but fewer resources for other projects and platforms.
This raises an important question: will the United States export the F-47 abroad to friends and allies?
That certainly remains to be seen, President Trump’s hints at that possibility notwithstanding.
But given the President’s seemingly singular fixation on transactionalism and insistence on tying financial gain for the U.S. to military projects, it would seem that proponents of F-47 export have found fertile ground.
The F-35 program illustrates the benefits of exporting key military technologies. Now that fighter program is truly global in scope, with F-35 components built by partners around the world. Will the F-47 program follow a similar track?
Or, like the F-22 Raptor program, be an America-only project?
About the Author: Caleb Larson
Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.
