Summary and Key Points: On February 18, 2026, President Trump publicly warned British PM Keir Starmer that entering a 100-year lease for Diego Garcia with Mauritius is a “big mistake.”
-Contradicting previous State Department backing, Trump argued that the base’s sovereignty is non-negotiable, particularly as tensions with Iran reach a breaking point.
B-2 Spirit stealth bombers assigned to Whiteman Air Force Base taxi and take-off during exercise Spirit Vigilance on Whiteman Air Force Base on November 7th, 2022. Routine exercises like Spirit Vigilance assure our allies and partners that Whiteman Air Force Base is ready to execute nuclear operations and global strike anytime, anywhere. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Bryson Britt)
-With the Starmer government already reeling from the Peter Mandelson/Epstein scandal, Trump’s escalation highlights the base’s role as a vital launchpad for long-range bombers.
-Critics argue that ceding sovereignty to a Beijing-aligned Mauritius creates a strategic vulnerability that the “Donroe Doctrine” will not tolerate.
Why Donald Trump Is Worried About Diego Garcia
President Donald Trump spoke with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on February 18, ahead of potential U.S. military action against Iran. Trump warned Starmer to rescind the United Kingdom’s forfeiture of sovereignty of Diego Garcia.
“I have been telling Prime Minister Keir Starmer, of the United Kingdom, that Leases are no good when it comes to Countries, and that he is making a big mistake by entering a 100 Year Lease with whoever it is that is ‘claiming’ Right, Title, and Interest to Diego Garcia, strategically located in the Indian Ocean,” Trump wrote on TruthSocial.
As decolonization loomed across the British Empire, the United Kingdom administratively separated the Chagos Islands from Mauritius, the Indian Ocean island from which British authorities administered the sparsely populated islands 1,250 miles away. London rebranded the archipelago as the British Indian Ocean Territory and evicted the approximately 2,000 Chagossians who called the islands home.
Diego Garcia, the crown of the Chagos Island chain, became home to a naval facility and airfield that quickly became an important Cold War hub for long-range bombers. Today, the U.S. base is home to approximately 1,500 military staff and an equal number of contractors and support staff.
A B-2 Spirit stealth bomber departs from Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, April 16, 2025. The B-2 is capable of penetrating heavily defended air spaces and delivering conventional and nuclear munitions anywhere on the globe. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Joshua Hastings)
B-2A, serial #88-0331, ‘Spirit of South Carolina’ of the 509th Bomb Wing, Air Force Global Strike Command, on the parking ramp at Tinker Air Force Base, Oklahoma, during a visit April 11, 2017. The B-2A ‘stealth bomber’ visited the base to allow hundreds of personnel who work in direct support of the aircraft program through continuous software upgrades to see it in person and better understand the aircrafts’ role in the nation’s defense. (U.S. Air Force photo/Greg L. Davis)
In September 2024, just two months after he assumed the premiership, Starmer agreed to hand sovereignty over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. The United Kingdom would retain control of the Diego Garcia base as part of a long-term lease. It is this lease which Trump now condemns.
It is unclear why Starmer rushed into a negotiation with Mauritius. True, the Mauritian government—likely with the encouragement of Beijing, with whom it has grown closer—took the Chagos question to the International Court of Justice. In 2019, the Court issued an advisory finding that the United Kingdom’s 1965 detachment of Chagos from Mauritius was unlawful.
It was a dubious ruling, though, and few took it seriously. The precedent voiced by the Court would, by extension, render illegal many other colonial administrative changes, including the separation of the Seychelles from Mauritius—the two became separate independent countries.
Starmer’s acceptance would also render illegal the continued British possession of sovereign base areas that comprise three percent of Cypriot territory, because London changed their administrative status when it granted Cyprus independence. The judgment’s precedent also might mean Singapore could demand Australia turn over Christmas Island, home to an important Australian military base.
Starmer’s Diego Garcia Mistake
By renouncing sovereignty over the Chagos, Starmer may have sought to signal his progressive virtue, but he displayed his ignorance. The Mauritian claim to the Chagos was always fanciful. The Dutch first populated Mauritius in 1638. They abandoned the island, but it got a second life with French settlement in 1721.
Its population is a mix of immigrants from India, Africa, the Middle East, Europe, and East Asia. It may be a proverbial melting pot, but its claim to sovereignty over islands with which the only history it shares is former British sovereignty is ridiculous. It is akin to suggesting Mauritius should govern Tanzania.
Put another way, the distance between Mauritius and the Chagos is about equal to the distance between New York and Dallas, but with nothing but ocean between. While the fate of 2,000 Chagossians might tug heartstrings, the idea that 2,000 island natives should have independence is akin to saying Nome, Alaska, should.
Starmer’s impulsive embrace of the International Court of Justice opinion on the Chagos surprised the British strategic and diplomatic establishment. Even those politicians who publicly supported Starmer out of party loyalty privately criticize the decision. The same holds true for British diplomats and defense officials who were much better versed than the former barrister and prosecutor about the interests and issues at stake.
Here, Trump’s comments can be useful. Starmer’s political future is in doubt because of fallout from the Jeffrey Epstein scandal. While Starmer himself does not appear in the released files, he faces eroding confidence among his own party for appointing Peter Mandelson to be the British ambassador to the United States despite knowing the former Labour minister had links to Epstein. While Starmer might continue to dig in his heels over the Chagos and Diego Garcia, it may not matter: Trump’s public escalation of the issue could reignite debate and either contribute to the pile-on that can push Starmer from power, or shape the position of his successor.
The Bottom Line
The looming military conflict with Iran highlights the strategic importance of Diego Garcia. It infuses reality into a debate that Starmer treats like a grad-student topic. What was abstract is now very real. Starmer and his hardline supporters might argue the deal is done, but Trump is correct to argue that far greater issues are at stake then adherence to a bad deal that stemmed from a bad ruling.
Taiwan may be China’s emotional goal, but Diego Garcia would be just as strategic an acquisition for Beijing. If Trump’s post causes London to reconsider its deal, and closes the door on Chinese designs to work through Mauritius to grab the base, then Trump will bolster his legacy as the president who kept China at bay.
About the Author: Dr. Michael Rubin
Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. The opinions and views expressed are his own. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre- and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea on the Horn of Africa and the Middle East, covering conflicts, culture, and terrorism to deployed US Navy and Marine units. The views expressed are the author’s own.
