The Iran War Ceasefire Might Not Last Long: After a month of the United States and Israel conducting airstrikes on Iranian military targets, the US and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, where both sides are hailing this as a “victory.”
President Trump announced the agreement just hours before the deadline of another ultimatum, where he warned that Iran could be “taken out” if it did not meet his newly updated deadline to reach a deal.
“The entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night,” he said, referring to the 8 p.m. EDT Tuesday deadline he set for Iran to meet US demands or face the destruction of key infrastructure (key bridges and power plants).
Iranian Ballistic Missile. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The ceasefire framework was proposed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who invited representatives from the US and Iran to Islamabad for peace talks.
Now, the two biggest questions are, will the ceasefire hold, and will the Strait of Hormuz fully open over the next two weeks?
Iran’s Ten-Point Peace Plan:
The Iranian plan requires that the United States agree to:
- The lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions on Iran.
- Continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.
- US military withdrawal from the Middle East and war reparations
- An end to attacks on Iran and its allies, including Hezbollah.
- The release of frozen Iranian assets.
- A UN Security Council resolution making any deal binding.
In the version released in Farsi, Iran also included the phrase “acceptance of enrichment” for its nuclear program.
But for reasons that are all too clear, that phrase was missing from the English versions shared by Iranian diplomats with journalists.
It isn’t surprising that the Farsi version just happened to leave that very important phrase out. It shows that the Iranians will not accept a cessation of their nuclear weapons program.
An Airman assigned to the 1st Special Operations Logistics Readiness Squadron prepares to refuel a U-28A during Forward Area Refueling Point training on Hurlburt Field, Fla., May 7, 2015. FARP first came about after the 1980 Iran hostage rescue attempt. After this event, the Air Force realized the need for a highly-efficient way to transfer fuel from one aircraft to another, in non-standard and hostile environments. (U.S. Air Force photo/Airman Kai L. White)
The Ceasefire Doesn’t Include Lebanon
The Israeli military has made it clear that the ceasefire doesn’t include Lebanon and continued attacks on Hezbollah positions.
Israel continued air and artillery strikes on Lebanon into the morning, pounding with artillery fire and carrying out two separate drone strikes on the town of Qana and al-Qaleileh on Hezbollah positions.
Meanwhile, Israel was attacked by cluster munitions from Iranian missiles on Tuesday night, hours after the ceasefire was announced.
Are The Straits Of Hormuz Open? The Answer Is Barely
Another sticking point is the Straits of Hormuz. On Tuesday night, President Trump stated that the US may be involved in securing the Strait of Hormuz in a “joint venture” with Iran. The US and Arab states stressed in their statements that the Strait of Hormuz must remain fully open and unrestricted.
That stands in contrast to the Iranian regime’s demand for a degree of control and the collection of fees.
While traffic is just beginning to move in the Strait, it is far from robust.
Shahed-136 Drone. Image Credit: YouTube Screenshot.
“Uncertainty remains over the details of how to coordinate passage with Iranian authorities, according to Richard Meade, Editor-in-Chief of maritime publication Lloyd’s List
“Shippers don’t have the details from Iran, and they believe the system that was in place at midnight has not changed despite the announcement of the ceasefire,” Meade said to CNN.
However, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine said he believes the Strait is open today, during a Pentagon press briefing.
Oil Prices Plunge, But Not Gas At The Pump
The ceasefire is conditional upon the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic choke-point that handles around 20 percent of the world’s oil supply.
The energy markets’ response to the ceasefire was immediate. The price of Brent fell by 13 percent, settling at $94.80 per barrel, while US WTI crude declined by more than 15 percent to $95.75.
But oil companies in the US keep increasing the price of gasoline at the pump. Despite the big drop in oil prices, the average price of gasoline in the US rose another two cents today to $4.16 per gallon.
Gas Prices Outside of Walt Disney World. Taken by Harry J. Kazianis for 19FortyFive.com on 4/5/2026.
That isn’t surprising at all.
Does Iran Want A Deal, Or Continuing To Stall For Time?
The president continues to insist that the Iranians are itching to make a deal, and Secretary of War Hegseth said the president’s warning brought Iran to the negotiating table and ultimately led to a two-week ceasefire.
“(Trump) ultimately said, ‘We can take it all from you. Your ability to export energy will be taken away and the United States military has the ability to strike those things with impunity.’ That type of threat is what brought them to the place where they effectively said, ‘Hey, OK, we want to cut this deal,’” Hegseth added at the Wednesday morning Pentagon press briefing.
However, President Trump is among the minority in believing that, as Iran has once again taken the tactic of stalling for time, while agreeing to nothing.
The world’s largest aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford, as seen from Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer USS Bainbridge (DDG 96) before a replenishment-at-sea with Henry J. Kaiser-class fleet replenishment oiler USNS Kanawha (T-AO 196) while underway during Operation Epic Fury, Mar. 8, 2026. (U.S. Navy Photo)
Analysts point to a familiar “playbook” where Iran agrees to talk to forestall military action while continuing to advance its nuclear capabilities, such as maintaining 60 percent uranium enrichment.
Will the ceasefire hold? No, Iran has already launched missiles at Israel and the Gulf states. They will not agree to giving up their nuclear program, and they’ll use these two weeks to try to reform their shattered command and control networks that have been decimated in the air attacks.
The ten-point plan will not be agreed to; it is unrealistic, but it buys them time.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
