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Donald Trump Won the Iran War

The maximalists wanted regime change, the minimalists wanted nothing, and the doubters see only waffling. Carafano’s answer: the victor gets to define victory — and everywhere you look, the region is moving Trump’s way.

President of the United States Donald Trump speaking with supporters at a "Make America Great Again" campaign rally at Phoenix Goodyear Airport in Goodyear, Arizona. By Gage Skidmore.
President of the United States Donald Trump speaking with supporters at a "Make America Great Again" campaign rally at Phoenix Goodyear Airport in Goodyear, Arizona.

Iran War Turns into Trump Middle East Triumph: We are about to see the biggest reshaping of the Middle East since Moses led the Jews out of Egypt. 

Like the pharaoh, who missed every warning sign up to the parting of the Red Sea, the critics and questioners of Trump’s tug-of-war with what’s left of the Iran regime seem obtuse to the prophetic truth that the region will never be the same again—in a good way.

President-elect of the United States Donald Trump speaking with attendees at the 2024 AmericaFest at the Phoenix Convention Center in Phoenix, Arizona.

President-elect of the United States Donald Trump speaking with attendees at the 2024 AmericaFest at the Phoenix Convention Center in Phoenix, Arizona.

Winning is the Only Thing 

Condemnation of the Trumpian way of war comes from corners that have a vested interest in seeing Trump’s triumph as a loss. 

Maximalists. They would only be happy if Trump fought the war they wanted, arguing that nothing less than overthrowing the regime would do. Anything else is a defeat and a humiliation. That’s a perversion of the president’s more limited goals to eliminate the regime’s capacity to bully and destabilize the region—objectives largely accomplished

Minimalists. They would only be satisfied if America did nothing, contending, “Trump has dragged the United States into a needless war with Iran—and one with no clear end,” ignoring that the regime building a nuclear arsenal; constantly threatening its neighbors; plotting the assassination of U.S. officials; and engineering the horrific October 7 attacks on Israel were clear and present dangers, and that Trump demolished these threats in a way that no other American president ever came close to even denting. 

MORE – Donald Trump Lost the Iran War 

Procrastinators. They are impatient and confused by what they see as Trump’s waffling, vacillating between negotiating and punishing the regime, overlooking the deep conviction behind his strategy, a sincere humanitarian streak which abhors needless loss of life—ours and theirs. Since he has largely accomplished our war aims, Trump can take a more measured approach to get to the end-state he wants without unnecessary loss of life and needless destruction. Instead, he is “de-risking—every time the Iranians fail to meet their obligations or retaliate, he takes more capabilities and assets of Iran off the table.” Rest assured, worriers, that while the war may only be over when the enemy quits—the truth is that the enemy has already lost, and now the only prospect they face is that the more they fight, the more they lose. 

President Donald Trump speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference at the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center in Oxon Hill, Maryland, on Saturday, February 22, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley

President Donald Trump speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference at the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center in Oxon Hill, Maryland, on Saturday, February 22, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley

Obstructionists. They are what’s left leading Iran, insisting that as long as they are still standing and resisting, they win, conveniently passing over the point that Trump has humbled and humiliated the regime, virtually decimating their armed forces and crippling Iran’s economy

All the above opinions can largely be discounted. Not only are they wrong, but none have the power or capacity to deter Trump from his course. Nor should he take the counsel of their fears. 

There is zero evidence to doubt Trump’s resolve—and plenty of facts to argue he should steel his determination and follow through.  

Theory of Victory

The victor gets to define victory.

Every war leader, in every war, has their detractors. Commanders-in-chief need a better metric to judge their efforts than taking the counsel of discontented doubters. 

A good fight has a “theory of victory,” a logical, feasible, suitable, and acceptable means to justify calling a win in war. That guidepost is the best measure of success.

For Trump, a win is to squash Iran’s capacity to destabilize the region, creating space for regional collective security, reconstruction, and economic resilience, providing a long-term deterrent against a resurgent regime. From the Abraham Accords to the work of the Board of Peace, and major economic initiatives like IMEC and Tripp, the expectation is that the real measure of Iranian defeat is if these initiatives flourish. That’s the theory of victory.

The real test of “is Trump winning” is if there are signs that the long-term peace structure the president is seeking to replace the overshadowing threat of Iran is emerging. Everywhere you look in the region—the answer is yes.

Energy Resilience. Only a year ago, the Iranian regime could threaten to shut down up to a third or more of the world’s oil exports. Even today, while fighting in the Strait of Hormuz still lingers, that is no longer true. Regional exports are rebounding, by some estimates up to two-thirds of pre-war levels. The UAE, for example, is already exporting at 85% of pre-war levels.

Nor is oil rocketing toward $ 200 a barrel like the IRGC hoped. In fact, prices are bobbing below wartime highs. Part of this is because the region is rapidly developing redundant and resilient means to move product through new cooperative initiatives, including potentially a Saudi-Israeli pipeline. The prospects that Iran can hold the flow of the world’s energy hostage are now nil. 

Reconstruction. Recently, the Board of Peace announced, over the objections of Iran, an unprecedented agreement to disarm Hamas, a precursor to the reconstruction of Gaza. The board also announced a pilot reconstruction project in Gaza to begin in November. Further, the U.S. is leading a trilateral framework with Israel and Lebanon and aggressively working to normalize relations with Syria.

These efforts will further help jump-start regional reconstruction projects. All these initiatives reflect a real movement to replace lands overlorded by Iranian surrogates with regions blessed with security, stability, economic growth, and good governance.  

Economic integration. The U.S. and Iraq recently announced over $60 billion in future economic deals. Washington also trumpeted an additional multi-million dollar investment in TRIPP in Armenia.

Further, the Iran War has helped even more urgently make the case for the importance of IMEC. On every flank, Iran is seeing their neighbors more tightly integrating with each other and partnering with the U.S. and other global good guys from Europe to India, Japan, and South Korea.

Security Cooperation. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia recently took action against Iran-backed militias in Iraq. Saudi Arabia just announced the establishment of a multinational coalition to provide maritime security in the Red Sea. Israeli recently expanded defense cooperation with the UAE.

All these initiatives point to the growing willingness of regional powers to expand collective security and build a conventional deterrence framework against the current Iranian regime. 

Trump Won the Iran War

So, here is the reality check—the inconvenient truth the doubters don’t want to talk about.

If Trump were losing his war, none of these initiatives would be happening. Instead, what is being witnessed is increased American influence, increased partnerships, and more momentum for the framework Trump envisions to bring long-term peace and stability to the region. These are not signs of defeat, but regional transformation on an unprecedented scale. 

The spin doctors can spin whatever the damn well please, but the historians are going to write that Trump is the most consequential force in reshaping the Middle East in modern memory. 

In the long run, that is only going to make the task of making and keeping America great again easier, partnering with a part of the world that will bring more benefits to us than problems to solve. 

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About the Author: Dr. James Jay Carafano 

James Jay Carafano is a national security expert and a 25-year Army veteran. His most recent books are Cold Combat: Mountain Warfare in Italy and the Battle of San Pietro, 1943, and Digital Dominance: Winning in a Socially Networked World. He is a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor.

Written By

A 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, James Jay Carafano is Senior Counselor to the President and E.W. Richardson Fellow at The Heritage Foundation. A leading expert in national security and foreign policy challenges, Carafano previously served as the Vice President of Heritage’s Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy. Carafano is an accomplished historian and teacher as well as a prolific writer and researcher. His most recent publication is “Brutal War” (Lynne Reinner, 2021), a study of combat in the Southwest Pacific. He also authored “Wiki at War: Conflict in a Socially Networked World” (Texas A&M University Press, 2012), a survey of the revolutionary impact of the Internet age on national security. He was selected from thousands to speak on cyber warfare at the 2014 South by Southwest (SXSW) Interactive Conference in Austin, Texas, the nation’s premier tech and social media conference.

42 Comments

42 Comments

  1. JFK

    August 6, 2026 at 1:13 pm

    Buahhahhahahhhaha Carafano you are crazy RETARD
    BUAHHAHHAHAHHAH

  2. yeye

    August 6, 2026 at 2:05 pm

    The iran war could well be the great nam’s adventure for donaldo trump.

    That’s because the midterms are coming fast, in a mere few months’ time.

    2027 could see trump facing impeachmemt hearings.

  3. FF

    August 6, 2026 at 10:09 pm

    Such propaganda BS. Iran is exercising more control over the Strait of Hormuz than it ever had before due to this unnecessary “excursion” that was suppose to take only a few weeks.

  4. Anthony

    August 6, 2026 at 10:10 pm

    This is probably the most delusional point of view I have ever seen in my life. We have lost this war in every single aspect imaginable. You will see the effects of this very soon – Energy crisis, $10/gallon gas prices, massive inflation, etc..

    I think you need to re-evaluate your life….

  5. bill ferrer

    August 6, 2026 at 10:34 pm

    Wait? What? Is this a real article? Saudi Arabia IS BEING ATTACKED BY IRAN proxies, Strait of Hormuz possibly under control of Iran, U.S. Bases damaged or destroyed, Stockpiles are low, which could be the reason for U.S. hesitancy to conduct major strike, Iranian regime emboldened but hey, let’s make a deal… Only spin is we decimated Iran… sunk their ships though ignored mosquito fleet of Iran, decimated their missile capability, though they still threaten entire region and unblocked missile city entrances, getting intel and logistic support from China and Russia, don’t forget Caspian Sea Route… etc…. and we WON THE WAR???? smh

  6. Barack

    August 6, 2026 at 11:13 pm

    If Donnie won the war, WTF isn’t the strait opened ???

  7. Mark

    August 7, 2026 at 1:54 am

    This author must have brain damage. Or he is just mentally challenged. I voted for Trump 3 times, and now I cannot wait for his ass to be gone. He got is into another forever war. He has not arrested anybody for high treason, crimes against humanity, or massive election fraud when they overthrew the United States government in 2020. Trump has no spine, no sack, and no backbone… and I am fricking done with him. He did not win the Iran war. The IRGC owns Trump

  8. Fred Burger

    August 7, 2026 at 2:38 am

    It’s been a long 2 week war. If you think Iran is done think back to the 2nd wk. It ain’t done until Iran is done. MAGA is on hold until this is truly finished.

  9. Ali

    August 7, 2026 at 3:32 am

    Yes agree, I’m iranian and we love trump

  10. Mamen

    August 7, 2026 at 4:29 am

    It seems he took money from the campaign to flatter himself and reverse an obvious fact. So vile and despicable. Trump leads the world into a world war for no reason, makes people miserable all over the world to increase his family’s wealth.

  11. Rabbi Epstein

    August 7, 2026 at 6:01 am

    Didn’t he bomb a school in Minab ? 160 children killed (little girls) – you really celebrate this ?
    May God have mercy on you – he will not have mercy on Trump and his ENTIRE REGIME

  12. Schou

    August 7, 2026 at 7:46 am

    More MAGA dreams, this should be removed from the website for being pure absurd propaganda.

  13. ICampBetterThanYou

    August 7, 2026 at 7:55 am

    Shut up, you idiot.

  14. Dave

    August 7, 2026 at 8:14 am

    Great article. “You cannot put new wine in an old wineskin” And no administration before Trump has had the courage to crush the head of the snake. And simply appeasing and ignoring the villains has brought only ruin to every other effort. Once the Iranian people find the will to fight for thier own destiny; that day will leave all the agnostics believers.

  15. Dave Coleman

    August 7, 2026 at 8:41 am

    The situation reminds me of the Monty Python sketch where the knight has both his arms cut off but still says, “come back and fight you cowards, I’m not defeated!!” Iran is the armless knight and the commentators here seem to be declaring him the winner! Yikes. The author is right on the mark, but like all sufferers of TDS, facts mean nothing to the deranged commenters.

  16. Eumaeus

    August 7, 2026 at 8:48 am

    Guy reminds me of Baghdad Bob, and that every stupid war needs dumb people to pretend things are going great.

  17. Dennis Earl Jacobson

    August 7, 2026 at 9:04 am

    The Iranians are harassing ships in the straight not controlling it. Harassing has different levels. Current harassment efforts are minor compared to controlling the whole straight. Iran’s economy is in the shitter and it ain’t going to get better because they have no income from their oil. The military loses about 250 soldiers each year to non combat accidents. To date 18 servicemen and women have been tragically lost. These are historically low numbers for the amount of combat that has taken place. We’ve won the Iran battle, the war will taken another generation of the Board of Peace and the efforts of the Abraham Accord. No matter how you define winning, the Middle East has changed for the better with Iran neutered.

  18. EDL

    August 7, 2026 at 9:21 am

    On February 28th, Trump and Netanyahu issued the following four objectives for their unprovoked attack against Iran:

    1) Regime change in Tehran;

    2) Total elimination of Iran’s nuclear program;

    3) Total elimination of Iran’s ballistic missile capability; and

    4) An end to Iranian support for proxy forces, to include Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen.

    We are now over five months into this war and Iran has confounded the ability of the US and Israel to achieve ANY of these four objectives. In the world I live in, if the nation playing defense has kept the aggressors from realizing any of their objectives, that constitutes a clear win.

  19. The Best Article, Just the Best

    August 7, 2026 at 9:29 am

    This is a great article and I really am thankful it’s out there because this is the first I saw this information.

    Good show Carafano *nudge wino*

    Now that we won because “Iran is contained” (whew, for a second there I expected them on the Potomac) we can GTF out of the region forever and smile to our greatest ally with the relaxed manner of a servant who knows he has performed well.

    And then when our greatest ally opens his mouth to speak we stick out our index finger to his lips to silence him, “no no, no need to thank me. It was my pleasure you see.”

    And before he can reach for that dossier we just say “well, since we’re all taking yes for an answer I guess I’ll just be on my way back to North America. You know my number, if I don’t pick up you can always leave a message! I usually return them!”

    We’re all good. Because everyone worth “containing” has been thoroughly “contained”, in fact, there’s so much containment going on I heard it’s even hard for oil tankers to get out. Well, you know, that’s containment for you, heck of a thing really. Price of freedom and all that, you know.

    We’ll be in north America, stop in if you’re ever in the neighborhood and we can talk about all this great already completed containment again!

  20. Brenda

    August 7, 2026 at 9:29 am

    You could give these people with TDS fresh milk from the cow and cookies hot out of the oven and they would call it bread and water.

  21. Teagan Moore

    August 7, 2026 at 9:34 am

    A lot of armchair commentators against this author. They are basically saying he is a deranged mouthpiece of the administration for what he wrote in this article. Have any of these people thoughtfully perused the books this man has written before launching their opinions? He is a very serious person with noteworthy credentials.

  22. Thomas Jamieson

    August 7, 2026 at 9:38 am

    Could you be anymore retarded?

  23. Joseph H.W. Blowe

    August 7, 2026 at 9:56 am

    Utterly delusional!

    “The winner gets to define victory”? What? That’s circular. So every participant in a war can just declare that it won, and that’s that. Right.

    “For Trump, a win is to squash Iran’s capacity to destabilize the region, creating space for regional collective security, reconstruction, and economic resilience, providing a long-term deterrent against a resurgent regime.”

    NONE of this has been achieved; in fact the opposite has been achieved on every point.

    “Regional collective security” has been shredded, as our ability to defend our allies in the region has been discredited entirely.

    What “reconstruction” or “economic resilience”? There is no reconstruction, and the economy of the region is in a crisis which will only get worse. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed!!

    There is NO “deterrent against a resurgent regime”. Our potential deterrence has been completely discredited. We’ve blown our stocks of precision weapons and AD interceptors and have nothing to show for it — our own missile stocks have been depleted more than we have destroyed or depleted Iran’s.

    This is a strategic defeat of epic proportions; obvious from the MOU signed with Iran last month, which was a surrender document, accepting all of Iran’s terms, and rubbing Trump’s nose in it with the word “reaffirm”, concerning Iran’s pledge to not pursue nuclear weapons, emphasizing that nothing new was being given.

  24. Roger

    August 7, 2026 at 10:24 am

    Delude much? This was a complete strategic and tactical victory by Iran. This is what happens when a man whose total knowledge of the military is how to dodge the draft plans a campaign. And whose main advisor Pete Kegsbreath is a total buffoon.

  25. Andrew

    August 7, 2026 at 10:32 am

    Good article. Your critics on here reveal their inability to understand and analyze a geopolitical situation. If they are all so right and you are wrong then why is oil trading at $77.43 as of right now? They can’t/won’t explain that without some convoluted garbage.

  26. Bennett

    August 7, 2026 at 10:34 am

    Is this a farce? Man, if you’re being serious, I’m embarrassed for you.

  27. James

    August 7, 2026 at 10:35 am

    Trump lost the Iran War in the first two weeks.

    It is the worst US defeat since the War of 1812, far worse than the defeats in Korea and Vietnam.

  28. Doc Moore

    August 7, 2026 at 10:37 am

    In your words: “There is zero evidence to doubt Trump’s resolve—and plenty of facts to argue he should steel his determination and follow through.” That much of your diatribe cannot be argued, but it can be interpreted: What kind of evidence would it take to justify doubt of Trump’s resolve? Silent inaction is not enough. How does anyone produce evidence about what Trump is thinking???

    And now that Iran and Oman are ready and able to prevent our ships from passing, and are voicing greater threats, very CLEARLY TRUMP NEEDS to follow though. Absolutely right. And until he follows through and Iran is unable to pose a threat to anyone again, ever…THERE IS NO VICTORY…With Victory defined and complete disablement of the enemy as every general since Alexander the Great has loudly agreed.

    Has he won the war? Of course not. NOT YET and in NO MANNER OF TWISTED THOUGHT.

    CAN HE WIN? Of course. As you implied, he just needs to push the button.

  29. Unknown

    August 7, 2026 at 10:58 am

    The only achievement of Trump out of this war is insisting Iran to enter negotiation for opening the starit of Hormuz that was already wide open itself before the war began!

    If this means winning, you are the winner idiot!

  30. James

    August 7, 2026 at 11:56 am

    Moses never led the Jews out of Egypt.

    It has been confirmed that the slaves in Ancient Egypt were ordinary Egyptians.

    The Bible is complete fiction.

  31. Polish S/F

    August 7, 2026 at 12:20 pm

    For long time I haven’t seen anyone in such a state of profound denial of reality in a long time—like the author of this “priceless” analysis.

  32. Eddy Ebolan

    August 7, 2026 at 12:27 pm

    Was this article mistakenly lifted from the Babylon Bee?

  33. Glen S

    August 7, 2026 at 1:25 pm

    Wow! I couldn’t believe that this writer claims Trump is causing the biggest changes to the Middle East since Moses! What a terrible lack of historical knowledge he has. He seems to either not know about or have forgotten about the impacts of several Egyptian pharaohs, the Hittites, Babylonians, the Assyrians; the Persians, the Greeks, the Romans, the various Muslim empires, the Crusaders, the British colonizations and the total restructuring that occurred after WWII….all of which were infinitely more consequential that Trump on the geopolitical landscape.

    Is or did Trump have an impact? Absolutely. Wars always have some sort of impact on the warring parties.

    Is of did Trump win? Absolutely not. If he had, Iran would not still be a country that is fighting us, would most definitely not be the primary country in control of the Straight of Hormuz and would not now be calling the shots that are causing the Red Sea to periodically shut down.

    Dream on, buddy, but your perspective on this is terribly out of touch with reality.

  34. Singleshot

    August 7, 2026 at 1:38 pm

    No. The Hormuz Strait is closed. Iran still has its enriched uranium and its working on a nuclear bomb that can reach Europe. And Iran is still funding its fanatical, genocidal Muslim proxies all over the Middle East. The fix, though, is simple: Turn leadership for the war over to Israel, and support them with anything they want from us.

  35. King Low

    August 7, 2026 at 1:42 pm

    James Jay, u must be on the spectrum with this nonsense lmao war still ongoing, dumpster just talking to himself about what’s happening now and u get on ur knees for him?? Disgusting work lol, at least u get a paycheck for trash

  36. John P.

    August 7, 2026 at 1:58 pm

    Not one mention of Iran’s nuclear program, but it’s ok, we’re still ‘winning.’ Really?

  37. Ray Giles

    August 7, 2026 at 2:54 pm

    Trump’s Top Ten Unkept War Promises

    1. No “forever” wars

    Donald Trump ran for president in 2024 on the promise to avoid new wars—his phrases included “no new wars,” “not starting any wars,” and “end America’s endless wars.”

    Follow-up note: Trump bombed Iran on June 22, 2025 and again beginning Feb. 28, 2026. The U.S. bombing of Iran has continued off-and-on ever since. Hundreds are dead and injured.

    2. Promised to reduce gas prices

    On Oct. 10, 2024 while campaigning in Detroit, Trump promised to reduce gas prices by 50%.

    Follow-up note: On July 27, a year-and-a-half after Trump took office, the average price of a gallon of gas in the United States was $3.95, up from $3.21 during the presidential campaign.

    3. Democrat opponent VP Harris would get U.S. into World War III

    In October, 2024, candidate Trump “guaranteed” his opponent, Vice President Harris, would get the U.S. into World War III if elected.

    Follow-up note: According to various media, as of Aug. 3 the following countries are involved in the Trump-led Iran war: United States, United Kingdom, Israel, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Yemen, Sudi Arabia, Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Russia (which is providing Iran satellite info on where to attack Middle East bases hosting U.S. troops), Egypt, Ukraine (which attacked an Iranian ship carrying war materials to Russia) and China (which is providing hand-held missile launchers to Iran).

    4. Trump promised the war with Iran would last only four to five weeks

    On March 1 and again on March 2 President Trump said the attacks on Iran would last “four to five weeks.”

    Follow-up note: The war has lasted 25 weeks.

    5. The U.S. has “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program

    President Trump has used the term “obliterated” (or close variations like completely destroyed or wiped out) to describe the status of Iran’s nuclear program dozens of times since the initial U.S. strikes in June, 2025.

    Follow-up note: But on July 16 and July 21, 2026 President Trump threatened to bomb the still-operating nuclear site, Pickaxe Mountain. And on Aug. 5 IRGC commander-in-chief Ahmad Vahidi said Tehran would continue working on nuclear weapons as long as the United States and Israel possess them.

    6. President Trump promised regime change in Iran

    Trump promised regime change in Iran on multiple occasions, most notably on Feb. 28, the day he started the war. “To the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.” In March he said the bombing campaign against Iran has effectively dismantled the prior leadership structure.

    Follow-up note: But on June 17 Trump signed a Memorandum of Understanding with that same regime he bombed promising them $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development and on Aug. 5 said the U.S. was again negotiating with the same regime, now led by the son of the deceased Supreme Leader.

    7. Trump promised to destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles

    On Feb. 28, President Trump told the nation, “The United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests. We’re going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground.”

    Follow-up note: But then President Trump reversed course and declared on June 17 that Iranian development of ballistic missiles didn’t matter. “What am I gonna do?” Trump asked rhetorically at a press conference at the G7 summit. “We’re going to let Saudi Arabia have missiles, but they can’t have them?” On July 18, Iran used its missiles to kill three U.S. soldiers in Jordan.

    8. President Trump promised to stop Iran from supporting “proxies”

    Just days after the start of the war President Trump told the nation, “We’re ensuring that the Iranian regime cannot continue to arm, fund, and direct terrorist armies outside of their borders.”

    Follow-up note: The Iranian-backed Houthis on July 20 declared Saudi Arabia’s oil shipping lane in the Red Sea closed, thus expanding the war to new parts of the Middle East. Hezbolla in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine are still armed and dangerous. And active.

    9. President Trump promised to restore free traffic in the Strait of Hormuz

    Before Trump and Israel started bombing Iran on Feb. 28, the Strait of Hormuz was open and free for all cargo ships and oil tankers.

    Follow-up note: As of Aug.16, both Iran and the U.S. have closed the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s ally, the Houthis of Yemen, have closed down the Bab al-Mandeb Strait

    10. Trump has said repeatedly the U.S. has reached a peace deal with Iran

    President Trump has stated that a peace deal or an end to the conflict was imminent or achieved almost 40 times since the start of the war.

    Follow-up note: On April 7, Trump claimed Iran had “agreed to everything.” On June 11, the president claimed “we ended the war with Iran today.” On Aug. 2 President Trump said allies had reached an “imminent” peace deal with Iran. And on Aug. 3 Trump said “we’re talking about opening the Strait of Hormuz tomorrow.”

    PS – Asked about negotiations with Iran, President Trump responded, “I’m losing faith in them because they do lie.”

  38. kodac

    August 7, 2026 at 4:32 pm

    I am well past Medicare age and have heard Iran’s “death to America” for most of my adult life. They are evil and serious. The amount of disruption associated with accomplishing their removal from power has been light. The world oil traffic is being rerouted for the better. It took great judgement and courage to do this. Trump is a chosen vessel.

  39. Yeah Right

    August 7, 2026 at 9:54 pm

    I can point to the very instance where this article becomes bull.

    Here: “A good fight has a “theory of victory,” a logical, feasible, suitable, and acceptable means to justify calling a win in war. That guidepost is the best measure of success.”

    That is a circular logic, precisely because it is an invitation to the losing side to simply move the goalposts and then declare “victory!!!”

    The Trump Administration set out four very clear goals on the first days of this unprovoked war, and has achieved precisely none of those four objectives.

    So what Trump has done is to cease talking about those goals and then fixated upon an entirely different objective: Open the Strait of Hormuz.

    OK. A goal that was achievable by not starting this war in the first place. So hardly a “theory of victory”, is it?

    And all the other “initiations” that this author puts forward for his “theory of victory” – Energy Resilience, Reconstruction, Economic Integration – don’t actually exist as anything other than policy pronouncements.

    And – let’s be honest here – an agreement signed by Donald Trump isn’t an agreement, precisely because he has shown his willingness to repudiate his own signature on a whim.

    So I’m going to suggest that all those initiatives will not actually materialize. Not a one.

    This author is deluding himself if he believes what he has written. But more likely he doesn’t believe any of this – he is simply attempting to delude his readers.

  40. Alejandro Bustamante F.

    August 7, 2026 at 11:21 pm

    Carafano is expecting a Trump’s baby.

  41. Don't Miss the Forest

    August 8, 2026 at 1:12 am

    Some very well documented strikes here in the comments against the utter gaslighting.

    However, for all the commenters’ correctness they are missing the core story of this war.

    The US entered the war with the stated intent to enable popular opposition to the Ayatollahs and on day 1 struck and obliterated an approved target on the joint targeting list-which turned out to be more than a hundred little children at their school.

    A cursory investigation proved the target had gone through all the rigor required to be placed on the list, been identified as a war crime by someone at CENTCOM, and incredibly left on the list anyway. No one has been punished.

    For all the obvious fiasco of this war, this particular aspect of the war is not fiasco. This was far more likely sabotage.

    People who understand the seriousness and effort that goes into the Joint Targeting List will easily recognize that this could not have been some casual error and anyone claiming that to be themselves gaslighting.

    Somebody designed this strike to prolongue the war and stiffen Iranian national resolve to the point only an enormously expensive multi year campaign of slaughter could ever overcome.

    The fact that Trump is being forced by Congress now to skip that multi year campaign of slaughter is unquestionably a victory for the American people against the sick people that walk within our government and war-industrial complex.

    Iran’s victory is as much the American people flipping the bird to this obvious attempt to deliberately force the US into a devastating, long, expensive, and bloody war.

  42. Paul

    August 8, 2026 at 2:12 am

    LOL

    The article should be called “The Identity Politics of Victory”. If you believe you are the victor, then you are, regardless of the facts.

    “The victor gets to define victory”

    In the immortal words of Omar Khayyam “Well, well. What matters it? Believe that too.”

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