Summary and Key Points: Defense expert Reuben F. Johnson evaluates a classified Washington Post report detailing the National Intelligence Council’s pre-war assessment of Iran.
-Completed just before the February 28 strikes, the NIC warns that even a large-scale military campaign is “unlikely” to oust the IRGC and clerical leadership due to entrenched succession protocols.
-This report analyzes President Trump’s desire to “clean out” the system and his preference for an internal Iranian leader over the exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi.
-Johnson explores the 2026 reality of Operation Epic Fury, where, despite leadership losses, the regime’s internal security infrastructure remains substantially intact.
The NIC Assessment: Why U.S. Intelligence Thinks the Iranian Regime Will Survive Operation Epic Fury
The U.S.-Israeli combined air campaign against the Iranian regime is insufficient to cause the collapse of the Islamic Republic, according to a recent assessment by the U.S. intelligence community. The combination of Iran’s clerical leadership and its considerable financial resources—plus the military might of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—might prove to be impossible to dislodge.
A report this weekend in the Washington Post references a classified assessment compiled by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) addressing the war. Among the document’s findings is that even a larger-scale attack beyond the current air campaign would likely fail to remove the mullahs and their “guardians of the revolution,” the IRGC.
The report’s details were provided to the Post by three officials who were supposedly familiar with its contents. The implications are stark for the Trump administration, which openly declared its plan is to see the current Iranian government’s structure replaced.
“We want to go in and clean out everything,” Trump told NBC News in a brief telephone interview. “We don’t want someone who would rebuild [the Islamic system] over a 10-year period.
“We want them to have a good leader. We have some people who I think would do a good job,” the U.S. president continued, although he declined to name any specific individuals. Some of the names he has in mind, however, are said to already be in Iran and may be connected to the current regime in one respect or another.
F-35I Adir serving in Israel’s Air Force. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
F-35I Adir. Image Credit: IDF Air Force.
Trump told NBC he is taking steps to ensure that the people on his list of potential figures in a new government will make it through the war alive. “We are watching them, yeah,” he said.
Trump’s statements were an extension of those he made in an interview with NBC News on February 28, the day the air campaign began.
When he was asked who should lead Iran next, Trump replied, “I don’t know, but at some point they’ll be calling me to ask who I’d like.” He added he was “only being a little sarcastic when I say that.”
Trump’s statements would seem to indicate he prefers a new leader for the Iranian people to be a personality who is currently inside the country. This would seem to rule out any meaningful support from the administration for the long-in-exile Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi.
Trump has previously expressed doubts about Pahlavi’s viability as a new leader for Iran, despite seemingly strong support for his leadership.
The massive crowds who have taken to the streets in almost every Iranian city since December 2025 have chanted his name for weeks now while waving the old Imperial, pre-Islamic Revolution national flag.
A Fragmented Opposition
The NIC report was completed the week before the United States and Israel began the war. It outlined different succession scenarios, each dependent on the level and objectives of any attack on the current Iranian ruling order.
LANGLEY AIR FORCE BASE, Va. – F-22 Raptors from the 1st Fighter Wing sit in position on the runway fduring the Elephant Walk at Langley Air Force Base, Virginia, Jan. 31, 2025. The surge was designed to showcase the wing’s operational readiness and its ability to rapidly mobilize airpower. The 1st FW operates F-22 Raptors and T-38 Talons, maintaining combat capabilities that enable the U.S. Air Force to execute missions across the globe. With a focus on air superiority, the 1st FW plays a critical role in defending the nation’s interests. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech Sgt. Matthew Coleman-Foster)
A U.S. Air National Guard F-22 Raptor from the 199th Fighter Squadron, Hawaii Air National Guard, takes off during exercise Sentry Aloha 26-1 at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii, Jan. 26, 2026. The training demonstrates the 154th Wing’s capability to lead large-force employment exercises, reinforcing the Guard’s position as a vital component of the nation’s operational force. (U.S. Air National Guard photo by Senior Master Sgt. Mysti Bicoy)
An F-22A Raptor sits in a hangar during a load competition on Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska, Jan. 23, 2026. Load competitions test Airmen’s ability to safely and efficiently build munitions, strengthening readiness for real-world taskings. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Theodore Gowdy)
The military options assessed included surgical strikes designed to decapitate Iran’s leaders, or a wide-scale military campaign to wipe out the leadership and collapse all the regime’s institutions, said the officials who had seen the document’s findings.
In either of the scenarios, the intelligence assessment concluded Iran’s clerics and the IRGC would respond to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by carrying out a pre-determined plan of actions and “damage control” aimed at maintaining continuity of their power, the same sources reported.
.They also assessed the probability of what they regard as a fragmented opposition in Iran taking control as “unlikely.”
When asked about Pahlavi, Trump was not enthusiastic and had said he was unsure “how he’d play within his own country.”
“I don’t know whether or not his country would accept his leadership,” he said, and “certainly if they would, that would be fine with me.”
But Trump also said he thinks someone who is already in Iran “would be more appropriate.” But as before, he did not identify any other proposed candidate.
“Most of the people we had in mind are dead,” he said.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.
