China published a study claiming the J-20 defeats the F-22 Raptor 95% of the time. What the headlines didn’t mention: the same study showed a single J-20 without drones loses over 90% of the time.
The Large Drone Debate That Won’t Die Between The J-20 Mighty Dragon And F-22 Raptor Stealth Fighter:
As tensions with China continue to rise in the Indo-Pacific, Chinese aircraft are increasingly engaging in belligerent actions. The Chinese are pushing on all fronts in the Pacific, trying to intimidate their neighbors.
China wants Taiwan, the small island nation, which was the last vestige of freedom, where the Nationalists fled after Chairman Mao and the Communists took over the country in October 1949, following World War II. China wants a bloodless takeover, especially to control the lucrative semiconductor industry.
U.S. Air Force Maj. Josh Gunderson, F-22 Raptor Demonstration Team commander and pilot, flies a practice demo at Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Va., Dec. 6, 2019. Representing Air Combat Command, the F-22 Demo Team travels to air shows all across the world showcase the performance and capabilities of the world’s premier 5th-generation fighter. (U.S. Air Force photo by 2nd Lt. Sam Eckholm)
Taiwan produces more than 60 percent of the world’s semiconductors and over 90 percent of the world’s most sophisticated chips.
Here We Go Again…The J-20’s Supposed Dominance Over The F-22
A couple of years ago, the South China Morning Post published a highly misleading article claiming that the Chinese J-20 stealth fighter would win 95 percent of the time against the American F-22.
And the story keeps popping up in conversations, despite the fact that if anyone were to read the entire article, it would show the exact opposite.
Here is an excerpt from the piece:
“To be cautious, the Chinese jet’s technical specs, including radar prowess and stealth capabilities, were deliberately set lower than its American counterpart.” (Emphasis mine. Why do you think they did that?)
“The outcome? In every scenario, the Chinese fighter emerged on top with a win rate exceeding 95 percent. This performance was attributed to the J-20’s ability to team up with two to three unmanned drones.
These aerial companions could scout out the enemy, draw fire from the F-22, and launch multidirectional attacks, while the human-piloted J-20 struck the decisive blow.
“‘The landscape of modern air combat has undergone a paradigm shift, thanks to rapid advancements in information and drone technology,’ wrote a research team led by Zhang Dong, an associate professor with the school of astronautics at Northwestern Polytechnical University.”
Read The Fine Print Before Breaking A Leg, Jumping To Conclusions
Headlines from China recently featured statements from Chinese computer programmers who posted that the J-20 would win engagements 95 percent of the time against the F-22.
Chinese J-20 Stealth Fighter. Image Credit: Chinese Internet.
Image of Chinese J-20 stealth fighter which could be soon armed with laser weapons.
However, that is if the J-20s had two “loyal wingmen.” The US is also developing the same program.
The Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program is a US Air Force initiative to develop a new type of uncrewed, jet-powered aircraft that will operate alongside and collaborate with crewed fighter jets. These are already flying and being tested.
However, in the same computer simulations conducted by Chinese programmers, it was reported that the simulations also revealed a single J-20 equipped with eight medium-range air-to-air missiles had a less than 10 percent chance of defeating an F-22 equipped with six AIM-120C missiles, according to the simulations.
Conflict On The Horizon In The Indo-Pacific?
All signs point to a possible conflict with the US, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, and Japan in the not-so-distant future. And China is modernizing its military. Its Air Force and Navy are growing by leaps and bounds.
The Chengdu J-20 Mighty Dragon was built in no small part thanks to stolen documents that Chinese espionage hacked from the US about the F-22, F-35, as well as the Russian MiG-1.44.
MiG 1.44 Russian Fighter. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
MiG 1.44 Russian Air Force. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The US F-22 Raptor has been the standard at which all fighter aircraft has been measured against for more than 20 years.
Yet it still sits at the top of the mountain in terms of dogfighting ability, stealth, supercruise ability, maneuverability, and integrated avionics.
So, who actually wins? Let’s look at each aircraft.
J-20 Mighty Dragon Is A Mighty Adversary
The Chinese J-20 fighter was designed and built by the Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, the J-20 “Mighty Dragon” is a fifth-generation fighter that has the NATO designation of FAGIN.
The J-20 is a large aircraft with a wingspan of 44 feet, a length of 67 feet, and a maximum take-off weight (MTOW) of 81,660 pounds.
A U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor soars above the United Arab Emirates March 16, 2022. The F-22 Raptors were rapidly deployed on order from the U.S. Secretary of Defense in coordination with the Abu Dhabi Crown Prince and have joined a range of joint, coalition, and allied and partner combat airpower capabilities already based across the region. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Christopher Ruano)
U.S. Air Force Maj. Josh Gunderson, F-22 Demo Team commander, performs maximum power takeoff during a demonstration for the 67th National Security Forum at Maxwell-Gunter Air Force Base, Montgomery, Alabama, May 13, 2021. The F-22 Raptor’s two Pratt and Whitney F119 Turbofan engines bring a combined 70,000 pounds of thrust, allowing the aircraft to takeoff straight into the vertical. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Don Hudson)
While early models of the J-20 utilized twin Russian AL-31FM2 engines, based on the engines that powered the Russian Sukhoi Su-27, later models switched to Chinese WS-10B powerplants as part of a broader transition of China’s fighter fleet to domestically produced engines.
The J-20 has also been seen testing a new and more powerful WS-15 engine. With WS-10 engines, the J-20 has a maximum speed of Mach 2.
The jet is capable of carrying various weapons systems, including the very long-range PL-15 missile, PL-21 long-range missile, and the LS-6 precision-guided bomb.
First seen in November 2024, the J-20S is a two-seat variant under development. It is a long-range, multi-role, stealthy fighter jet that can also team up with unmanned drones and aircraft. The “loyal wingman” concept that the US is also testing. Currently, China has between 270 and 300 J-20 aircraft.
The Standard: The F-22 Raptor:
The F-22 Raptor remains the world’s best pure fighter aircraft, but its service window is closing. The Air Force plans to replace the Raptor in 2030 with the F-35 and the Pentagon’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter, the F-47.
F-47 NGAD Fighter Possible Image. Image Credit: Screenshot.
“We’ve already built and flown a full-scale [sixth generation] flight demonstrator in the real world, and we broke records in doing it,” Will Roper, Director of the Pentagon’s Strategic Capabilities Office, told Defense News in 2020. “We are ready to go and build the next-generation aircraft in a way that has never happened before.”
However, the U.S. Air Force’s decision to prematurely halt F-22 Raptor production at just 186 aircraft was a “strategic blunder” that has created a dangerous “air superiority gap.”
What makes the F-22 great in a dogfight is the aircraft’s thrust vectoring capabilities.
Its two engines have specially designed nozzles at their ends that can move on a vertical plane to vector the aircraft’s 70,000 pounds of thrust in one direction even if the aircraft is heading in another, thus allowing the F-22 to do some impressive acrobatics, as well as leverage a highly high angle of attack during a within-visual-range engagement.
U.S. Air Force Maj. Joshua “Cabo” Gunderson, F-22 Raptor Demonstration Team commander and pilot, preforms the weapons bay door pass during rehearsal for the 2022 FIDAE Air & Trade Show, April 3, 2022 in Santiago, Chile. The F-22 Raptor is a multi-role air dominance stealth fighter that can carry of combination of air-to-air missiles and GPS guided bombs. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Don Hudson)
The USAF currently has approximately 150 combat-ready F-22s in its inventory.
Comparisons Between the J-20 and the F-22
While the J-20 can carry an enormous payload, most of it must be carried on its external pylons, which will reduce its stealth capability. Due to the size of its long-range missiles, it can carry only four internally. The F-22 can carry six AIM-120 AMRAAMs and two AIM-9X Sidewinders in its internal weapons bay.
And stealth is already a factor that the J-20 is behind the Raptor. The J-20’s radar cross-section is about 35 meters, or about 100 times more than the Raptor, not counting the additional weapons on pylons.
The J-20 lacks a cannon, which could mean that designers didn’t intend it to be a dogfighter. The Chinese may view the J-20 in a more interceptor-like role, using its long-range missiles to penetrate opposing air defenses by engaging and destroying enemy fighter patrols, early-warning aircraft, and refueling tankers.
The speed of the Raptor is about 1,500 mph. Reports of the J-20’s new WS-15 engine now put it roughly on par. The J-20 has a considerable advantage in range, with a combat range of about 1,100 miles, while the Raptor has a range of about 650.
J-20. Image: Creative Commons.
However, the Air Force and Lockheed Martin have developed a conformal external fuel tank for the F-22 and F-35 that won’t affect its stealth, similar to what Israel did with their F-35I Adir fighters.
The Low Drag Tank and Pylon (LDTP) program is a Lockheed Martin effort to develop stealth-compatible external fuel tanks for the F-22 Raptor, significantly extending its combat range for Pacific operations without sacrificing low-observability. These tanks feature a low-drag, sleek design and can be jettisoned to leave a clean, stealthy aircraft profile or left in place.
“These can go into combat,” says Katie Ciccarino, vice-president of Lockheed’s F-22 program.
“They are droppable if they need to be,” she added. “But the idea would be not to drop them, and to retain them throughout whatever the pilot is doing and then coming home and being able to use them again.”
Both the current and new external tanks provide F-22s with an extra 850 nautical miles (1,570km) of range, according to Lockheed.
There is the answer.
About the Author: Steve Balestieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
