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Does Mike Pence Have A Chance Against Donald Trump In 2024?

Mike Pence
Governor Mike Pence of Indiana speaking to supporters at an immigration policy speech hosted by Donald Trump at the Phoenix Convention Center in Phoenix, Arizona.

Former Vice President Mike Pence was once considered the natural successor to President Donald Trump for a 2024 run, but after Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential victory, the dynamics of the 2024 race have changed significantly.

Former President Donald Trump has indicated several times that he intends to run again in 2024 and is hosting “Save America” rallies across the country. He has also very publicly disagreed with the former president on allegations of fraud and misconduct in the last election.

Despite this, it looks as though former Vice President Mike Pence is making moves and considering his own run for the presidency in 2024 – presumably conscious of the fact that he will be running against Trump.

Pence Is Making Moves

Former Vice President Pence, who was the Governor of Indiana at the time he was chosen by candidate Donald Trump to be his running mate, appears to be preparing a run of his own.

Mike Murphy, a Republican campaign strategist from Indiana, said that Mike Pence is “doing everything he needs to set himself up to run” and that if Trump is not the eventual nominee in 2024, Pence is “clearly the frontrunner.”

“I think people are realizing that he was an unlikely hero on January 6. In the end, even for people who disagree with him for many other policy positions he’s taken, whether it was as a governor or as a vice-president, he did the right thing when the pressure was on January 6,” Murphy said.

Pence has visited New Hampshire, he has spoken at conservative, pro-life events in South Carolina. He even gave a speech at an event hosted by Heritage Action in which he slammed President Joe Biden for overseeing rising inflation and implementing a catastrophic environmental spending plan.

Some Say He Can’t Do It

Tara Setmayer, a former Republican communications director who now works at The Lincoln Project, said in an op-ed for NBC News this month that Vice President Pence has no chance of winning the Republican nomination or becoming the next president of the United States.

Setmayer, who served as the communications director for former Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, said that Pence’s criticism of the former president is a “cardinal sin” that means he’ll never win the nomination.

“Let’s be honest, my cat, Tiki, has a better chance of becoming president than Pence,” she said.

Mike Pence – Here’s What the Polls Say

Pence certainly has an uphill battle securing the Republican nomination for 2024, and it remains to be seen whether his campaign will involve direct or severe criticism of former President Donald Trump.

In the meantime, we have the polls – and they don’t give us a clear idea either.

One poll from Quinnipiac University released on February 16 suggests that 52% of Republicans side more with former Vice President pence than they do Trump on whether or not Pence had the authority to reject Electoral College votes in the wake of the 2020 election. Just 36% said otherwise.

That poll indicates a majority of Republican voters are willing to forgive Pence for refusing to reject those votes on January 6, 2021.

Other polls, however, show Trump with a clear lead over Pence. In fact, not a single poll so far has shown Pence even remotely competitive in a race against former President Trump.

Could Mike Pence win the nomination in 2024? That depends on a lot of factors.

Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and report on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.

Written By

Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.

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