Europe’s Post-Ukraine War Prospects are Good – The Ukraine war is a terrible tragedy. Ukraine is suffering terrible humanitarian and material costs. Russian war crimes rival those of harsh paramilitaries like the Mano Blanca during the Cold War. Russia is being isolated from the world. The economic impact of the war will be felt globally. But there is a bright spot: the war is going about as well as can be hoped for a middle power like Ukraine, and when it ends, Europe will safer and more secure.
This is not to say that the West should let up. It should not. We should continue to support the Ukrainians against Putin’s brutality. But the war is going terribly for Russian President Vladimir Putin. That is good for the cause of democracy and liberalism and European security after the war finally ends.
Ukraine is Winning, and that is Good
Our knowledge of battlefield events in Ukraine is more limited now than in the early days of the war. At the start, Ukraine pushed out a great deal of information to sway world opinion. Russia’s offensive was also sloppy and undisciplined, unintentionally providing a lot of (negative) information. This tightened up in recent weeks. Russian messaging has improved, and the war has narrowed to one front – Donbas.
But there is little doubt that Ukraine is winning. Russia lost the battle of Kyiv and withdrew almost entirely from northern Ukraine last month. This means that even if Russian makes limited territorial gains in the east or south, it will have paid a massive cost not worth those gains. Ukraine will survive as an independent state.
But even Russia’s more limited efforts in the east are flailing. The Russian offensive in Donbas appears to be bogging down. Ukraine also seems to be going on the offensive, particularly around Kharkiv. There is a growing sense among strategic observers that Ukraine might win the war outright.
This surprising course of events – no one thought Ukraine would win in February – bodes well for the future. A victorious Ukraine – mobilized, patriotic, committed to its independence and democracy – would be a powerful bulwark of European security, and European values, against future Russian revanchism. Putin knows this, so he is likely to double-down on the invasion by fully mobilizing on May 9, even though this is a mistake.
Putin Can No Longer Credibly Bully His Neighbors as Before
Even if the war does not end in a total Ukrainian victory, Putin’s war machine has been revealed to be surprisingly incompetent. Putin will not be able to credibly bully or threaten countries around him as he has before. His threats carry far less weight now that the world has seen he cannot overcome a weak middle power on his own doorstep.
This too, is likely why Putin will fight on. Russia’s status as a great power – a weighty player in international relations deserving of US, European, and Chinese respect – is now at stake. This is likely why Putin’s government keeps making oblique nuclear threats too. They remind the rest of us of Russian power at a time when it is daily embarrassed on global television.
So even if Putin can claw out some minor victory in Donbas, Europe will be safer in the future because it knows that Putin’s threats are more hollow than we thought. Putin is a risk-taker. He has played a weak hand remarkably well for decades. Small interventions in Georgia, Crimea, and Syria fed an image of Putin as a master strategist. And a decade of stories about Russia’s defense modernization suggested that even if Russia’s economy is stagnant, its conventional military was capable. We now know that this is not so.
Conciliating a Weakened Russia
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin was correct when he said that the West would now like to see a ‘weakened Russia.’ He should not have actually said this in public, but Putin has pursued an aggressive posture toward the West for years. Most obviously, he has simply refused to accept the independence of Eastern European states and their freedom to make their own alliance choices. Were Poland or the Baltics not in NATO, he would likely be bullying them.
Image: Creative Commons.
This war has ended all that uncertainty. NATO is unified. Eastern Europe is more committed to the alliance than ever. Germany is building a modern military. Europe is de-linking from Russian energy. Putin’s pyrrhic victory at best/strategic defeat at worst, plus the crippling sanctions on Russia, will reduce his ability to stir up trouble and stiffen spines to face down his bullying. All of this is good and portends a brighter future for Europe.
We should try to bring Russia back into the family of nations after the war. We should not permanently isolate it. But Putin can no longer bully Europe as he did for two decades, and that is progress.
Dr. Robert E. Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly; website) is a professor of international relations in the Department of Political Science at Pusan National University. Dr. Kelly is now a 1945 Contributing Editor as well.
Fluffy Dog
May 8, 2022 at 9:04 am
“Putin will not be able to credibly bully or threaten countries around him as he has before.” – that’s wrong. He will, for as long as no state he perceives as stronger would tell him to back off.
“Russia’s status as a great power – a weighty player in international relations deserving of US, European, and Chinese respect – is now at stake.” – that’s wrong. Russian, and Putin’s, perception of Great Power is an ability to bully others using physical fear. Western perception of Great Power is the economic well-being of the people AND military capabilities, i.e., economic influence backed by the hard power. Russian status as a Great Power by Western standards is already gone.
“We should try to bring Russia back into the family of nations after the war.” Good luck with that. 80% of the population backs Putin and traditional attitudes. It will take the same effort as in post-WWII Japan and Germany to change that. Two generations, guided from the outside.
tired
May 10, 2022 at 3:37 am
re: “We should try to bring Russia back into the family of nations after the war. We should not permanently isolate it.”
Too late. We had our chance to do this 20 years ago. Putin’s generation led the biggest, bloodless color revolution in global history. They took down the ruling soviet class and rebuilt their country. Early in the Bush administration, they even kicked the tires on joining NATO.
They were soundly rebuffed. NATO broke all of its promises about non-expansion and expanded all through Eastern Europe. The west continued treating the new Russia just like the old USSR, and never gave them the chance to join the world stage.
So was anyone surprised when Putin said enough is enough and went into Georgia then Ukraine? Then Ukraine again? This entire situation is a failure of foreign policy of Bush jr and Obama. Now Biden’s idiot approach is exacerbating it.
CK
May 10, 2022 at 9:32 am
Yeah, poor Russia. Just misunderstood, that’s all.
Air battle over Nis
May 8, 2022 at 10:15 am
Author’s article full of innuendoes, half-truths and false expectations.
The fighting in ukraine is now to gain assurance the neo-fascists in Kyiv and Brussels plus washington WILL NEVER be able to station NATO panzers and cavalry on the border thus threatening Moscow.Never.
Kyiv ain’t ever coming out of this smelling like roses.Instead think Lebanon, Syria or Somalia, Mali or CAF or Yemen.This is the future for Kyiv.
The GREATEST danger now is US & NATO, unable to secure a win for their stooge, zelensky, despite massive arms supplies, will decide to enter the fray via black sea and directly attack Russian forces on Ukraine’s eastern coast, thinking along the lines of Hitler, von Leeb and Model when they co-opted Finnish forces to attack Leningrad.
In the end, they failed and in 2022, US-NATO will fail, too.
Russia will never never give away Donbass or Crimea, and author shouldn’t forget what Putin said in July 2021, when a British warship tried to sail near Crimea: “We can unleash an unpreventable strike on the provocative side”.
Eric
May 8, 2022 at 10:22 am
Russia is not giving away territory near Kherson either; Ukraine won it back. Trolls have a remarkable ability to believe their own propaganda and lies. No western countries are threatening Moscow. They’re supporting Ukraine, who never threatened Moscow. Made up threats don’t justify war and war crimes against Ukrainian people.
Froike
May 8, 2022 at 4:56 pm
100%
Abraham Lincoln
May 8, 2022 at 2:04 pm
There is nothing like a good crackhead comment.
mcswell
May 8, 2022 at 3:34 pm
Oooh, now Brussels and Washington are full of neo-Nazis, too!
Good luck pushing that lie, Air.
NCDork
May 9, 2022 at 2:18 pm
Umm, well Putin’s war is achieving the opposite goals regarding NATO. Finland and Sweden are about to join NATO, Estonia Latvia and Lithuania already have and Ukraine has more NATO weapons now than before the war. With multiple Russian lines in retreat in north eastern Ukraine, you could find Ukranian soldiers pushing into Russian soil with American, French, Czech and Polish Howitzers.
Luis Espinal
May 9, 2022 at 4:35 pm
Alex the Putin Troll has entered the chat.
Victor A Potter
May 9, 2022 at 8:49 pm
You can’t overcome Ukraine, what makes you think you can handle a NATO caliber military?
Eric
May 8, 2022 at 10:17 am
Nice article. As much as I dislike the Russians right now, effort should be made to reintegrate Russia after hostilities cease. That would not be easy and might look like Germany 1945-1965. That’s probably not possible with Putin or anyone like Putin in power. It’s not in the world interest to maintain hostilities for the long term. There are plenty of other global issues that also need attention.
MAGA MAGA
May 8, 2022 at 10:34 am
It is too simplistic and even quite laughable to say Russia is going to lose respect from US, Europe and china.
Russia has the rs-28 (SS-30 to NATO) ICBM which can carry up to 15 thermonuclear warheads, enough to wipe out a modern country like France.This ICBM has no equivalent anywhere else.The new US Sentinel ICBM won’t be available until at least 2029.
Moreover, Russia is the ONLY nation in the world that routinely chases away NATO warships by threatening to ram them or by firing live warning shots at them.NO OTHER NATION has dared to do the same.
In addition, Russia has the SS-29 and SS-27 missiles which are thought capable of punching through current European ABM systems and US Aegis Ashore systems in Poland and Romania.France and UK now only have subs and strike aircraft whose bases Russia can smash with relative use using older missiles. Paris, London, Oslo, Berlin, will these cities dare to sacrifice themselves for zelensky & his azov battalions in donbass ? Most unlikely or impossible.
Abraham Lincoln
May 8, 2022 at 2:05 pm
NOTE: Russian commenters usually use MAGA type names, to get you to think they are really Americans. They are not.
M
May 8, 2022 at 2:07 pm
More Russian trolls and propaganda……
mcswell
May 8, 2022 at 3:38 pm
1) A single booster would be easier to destroy during the boost phase than multiple boosters. So a rocket carrying 15 warheads is just a dumb idea. Ever hear of putting all your eggs in one basket? No, I suppose they don’t teach that one in Russian universities.
2) Chasing away NATO warships. Which Russian movie did you see that in?
I agree that a nuclear war would be a Bad Idea, regardless of whatever ABMs either side might have. A Bad Idea for *both* sides. So–one hopes–Moscow would not be stupid enough to sacrifice itself for Donbas.
NCDork
May 9, 2022 at 2:26 pm
Eh, well as an American I can say all of that is basically heresay at this point. Before the war, armchair military conversations about a war with Russia included talks about Russia’s super advanced attack helicopters, airplanes, naval capability and of course, the sheer number of tanks Russia has that would make things difficult.
Not to mention all the cruise missiles and precision strike capabilities. Now the US is questioning if Russia even has more than a few dozen functional nukes because it’s so clear that most of Russia’s conventional weapons either weren’t even bought much less maintained that we’re seeing most of the attacks conducted with Soviet trucks and tanks built in the 60’s that it’s difficult to think that Russia maintained nuclear stockpiles which require FAR MORE maintenance than a tank or a truck at a MUCH higher cost.
We’re watching Russian Cruise missiles fail at 60% or more either missing the target or even just falling out of the sky without any explosion.
It’s a joke and watching all the tank turrets fly in the air with more reliability than Russia’s air force really has made us fear Russia less.
Andrew P
May 9, 2022 at 10:06 pm
The new QUICKSINK, just demonstrated by AFRL, should make short work of any ship Russia can float.
Ghenkis Khan 1V
May 10, 2022 at 6:22 am
Have you got a brain cell (IT DOESN’T MATTER ONE BIT ABOUT RUSSIAN NUKES BECAUS MINUS A BRAIN CELL YOU THE US ALONE WILL DETROY RUSSIA WITH BETTER NUKES IN MINUTES BASICALLY WIPE THEM OFF THE MAP FOR EVER) no can you dig that suka
Alex
May 8, 2022 at 10:44 am
German journalist Thomas Röper continues to publish his materials with photo and video evidence. The lies of the Bandera Nazis stop working, the CIA specialists cannot even help.
“When we crossed the border, the Ukrainian border post was pretty much destroyed, but that’s all. There were several cars on the side of the road then, which, as our companion told us, were hastily moved across the road by the Ukrainian army to block the road. But tanks cannot be stopped by several cars .
In addition, we did not see any damage, except for some damaged safety fences. The Russian army passed there without meeting any resistance, and in all the places where we passed, everything was intact, not a single window was broken. Life also went on as usual, shops and gas stations were open, cars were driving, people were on the streets, and so on. If someone did not know, nothing would indicate that an army had just passed through here.
Experienced fellow journalists, such as a Dutch journalist with experience in Syria, found this very impressive. She told us that she knows her differently than she knows Syria because when the US Army advances, helicopters fly forward, shooting at anything that moves to prevent ambushes. She told me that even if no civilians were harmed, the devastation where the US Army had advanced was significant.
This was confirmed by an American among journalists, a former US Marine. By the way, he has an interesting story, because he has been living in Russia for six years and received political asylum because he asked too many critical questions in the United States on a sensitive topic. In the USA, of course, they tell it differently, but that’s another topic.
What also stood out was the poverty in Ukraine. For those who, like me, still know Russia from the 1990s, there was a feeling that they had traveled back in time to the 90s. Today Russia is a clean country with modern cities where entire districts have been rebuilt. I have linked a video that makes this clear.
Ukraine still looks the same as the then Russia. Broken roads, dilapidated bus stops, dilapidated, dilapidated houses, a lot of old Soviet cars and so on. Even the joyless clothes of people reminds of the 90s in Russia. It touched me very much because it brought back some memories of that time and the problems of my friends at that time. But this can only be understood by those who have experienced it for themselves.
I expected that the opponents of the Russian military operation would not talk to us, because they should be afraid of Russian soldiers. However, everything was exactly the opposite. The opponents told the Russian soldiers to their faces that they were not welcome here and that they should go home. They are clearly not at all afraid of Russian soldiers and call them names, sometimes harshly, to which Russian soldiers stoically do not react.
Those who are afraid, we all quickly noticed, are the supporters of the Russian operation. They walked past the soldiers and unobtrusively whispered words of gratitude and something like “finally!” or “Don’t go again!” them.
Disgruntled people also grabbed every microphone and stood in front of every camera, expressing their displeasure, while the supporters of the operation were difficult to film and interview the supporters of the operation. One of the few exceptions was an elderly woman who said she was 72 and not afraid. She almost cried with joy in front of the camera and thanked Russia.
The fear, as I learned from whispering conversations with some of the stakeholders, is that Russia might leave again, and then they will have to expect reprisals and even worse consequences for their propaganda of Russian intervention, as they did after the Maidan. The most famous, but far from the only case was the Odessa tragedy in May 2014, when more than 40 people were burned alive in Odessa by Maidan supporters. This massacre is cynically called “Odessa barbecue” by nationalists in Ukraine and has not yet been disclosed.
In general, the life of opponents of the authorities in Ukraine after the Maidan was not safe, political assassinations were not uncommon, and the UNHCR also mentioned this more than once in its human rights reports on Ukraine. But it is one thing to know this and read about it, and quite another when you experience this fear so tangibly. Fear was also manifested in the fact that many did not even want to be seen in the background of the picture. Most of them avoided the cameras and always walked behind the cameramen so as not to get into the frame.
And something else was said in the reaction of people. Due to the fact that we were under the protection of Russian soldiers, people might think that we were pro-Russian. But when they heard that we were from the West, many refused to talk to us at all. Many would probably talk to the Russian media, but almost no one wanted to be in front of a Dutch, Italian or even American camera.
Один из согласившихся настоял на том, чтобы интервью давали на английском, а не на русском, потому что боялся, что западные СМИ исказят его слова. Это был опыт, которого я не ожидал в Украине. Затем он положительно отозвался о российской военной операции.
Where we were, life basically went on as usual. What shocked me was the fear of the people who support the Russian side. Seeing this, this anxiety of the people, it was depressing. I was also surprised by the visible poverty in Ukraine. I didn’t expect to see it so clearly. The infrastructure is still from the Soviet Union and since then little has been done, much has fallen into disrepair, especially empty factories and really bad roads stand out.
I was pleased with the man’s answer to the question of who is more Russian or Ukrainian in the city. His answer was:
“We don’t make any difference! Besides, so many nations live here; Armenians, Georgians, Greeks, we are all one family!”
That’s what I wish for Ukraine to return to this: to be one big family, because it was this Maidan government that they wanted to expel from Ukraine, relying on radical nationalism.
The Ukrainians will be able to defeat the Bandera Nazis in the same way as their ancestors once did.”
Abraham Lincoln
May 8, 2022 at 2:06 pm
You crack me up, Alex. This so called German journalist has been working for the Russians for about ten years. He is a paid liar, and everyone except for you realizes that.
Daniel Davis
May 8, 2022 at 11:24 am
There is so much disniformation and straight-up propaganda from journalists and national security “experts” like this guy that it’s mind-boggling. The entire world is being lied to about what is really going on in Ukraine.
mcswell
May 8, 2022 at 3:41 pm
Is true, komrade, Russians are lying to entire world about what is going on in Ukraine. But you shouldn’t tell us that, is bad for Russian propaganda.
Tit
May 10, 2022 at 6:17 am
Putin is a bonified Nazi murderer assassinator he sees nothing wrong with his Russia TERRORIST TROOPS RAPING AND KILLING CIVILIANS ON PURPOSE BABIES AND CHILDREN , HE BOMBS HOSPITALS HOUSING AND PRACTICALLY ANY THING HE WANTS TO IS BOMBARDED BY HIS TERRORIST TROOPS. ALL FROM HEIR PUSHITLER PUKING REPULSIVE VILE COWARD PUTIN AND DOWN THE RANKS THE ATROCITY BRIGADE SHOULD BE HUNG DRAWN AND QUARTERED AND THEN INCINERATED SO NO TRACE OF THE RUSSIAN TERRORISTS ARE LEFT BEHIND .BRAVO UKRAINIANS GOD BLESS AND PROTECT YOU FROM THE BLACK HEARTED YELLOW LIVERED COWARD HEIR PU-SHITLER PUTIN AKA PUSHITLER THE FAILER .DEPART ALL YOU RUSSIAN SCUM
Commentar
May 8, 2022 at 11:38 am
Ukraine, or the current US-instigated proxy war, is just a small small appetizer in the larger scheme of things.
Russia is well and fully aware that it is being targeted by US. The infamous NATO 2030 plan which was secretly laid out in 2019 outlines the need for all-out readiness to confront ‘eventualities’ is proof of it along with it’s plan to absorb ukraine and Georgia.
The other plan, a top secret plan by the Pentagon itself for direct war on russia is euphemistically titled ‘Army Plan for Multi-Domain Warfare’ along with an earlier one called ‘Document For Joint Nuclear Operations’ clearly indicated that US identified or had painted a bullseye on russia, to eventually attack and defeat it and to carve it up, a/k/a (Russia to undergo) territorial dismemberment.
Thus, people should look at the larger scheme of things, or the future envisaged by Washington and Brussels. Forget peace, forget revanchism, brighter future and other ‘heady stuffs’.
The future is…take a look at somalia, Yemen, Afghanistan.
Abraham Lincoln
May 8, 2022 at 2:07 pm
When did your feelings of paranoia first start?
Jimmy John Doe
May 8, 2022 at 12:40 pm
Europe must divest itself from the embrace of uncle Sam and thus it must kick away NATO.
NATO should be re-branded as North American Treaty Organization to be made up of Canada, US and mexico. Its purpose should be to fight crime, poverty, drugs, genocides of indegenous peoples, corruption, gang violence and migrant trafficking.Not fighting Russia.
Otherwise, the future of Europe would, at best, resemble Lebanon or Syria and at worse, more like somalia.
Ukraine today is a foretaste of what the US has long planned or envisaged for the entirety of its euro minions.
Abraham Lincoln
May 8, 2022 at 2:08 pm
Wow, that’s uncanny! This is exactly what Putin says!
Sam McGowan
May 8, 2022 at 12:48 pm
ROFLMAO! Ukraine propaganda is working!
Stefan Stackhouse
May 8, 2022 at 4:31 pm
Russia cannot win. Ukraine and its supporters have seen to that.
Russia cannot lose. It isn’t just Putin. Any of those who would replace him are likely to see this as existential as well. It is only nations that have not just been defeated, but conquered, that ever reconcile themselves to the permanent loss of territory. Even if Putin goes, his replacement would fight on.
The horns of a dilemma: What to do? (Putin thinks, as his eyes contemplate his “nuclear football”.)
There is no good reason to be so cocksure about a happy ending to this.
aldol11
May 8, 2022 at 5:24 pm
Russia is finished:
militarily
economically
morally
those that don’t acknowledge it are either stupid or Russians
citicrab
May 9, 2022 at 4:15 pm
I wish it were true. Morally finished, yes, but that’s been so since always, and nobody has cared. In all other respects, it’s still a 140-million nation. No matter the sanctions, it can go on forever, including forever fighting a low-grade war. Assuming they have an unlimited supply of their cruise missiles (I hope they don’t), they can eventually convert Ukraine into a wasteland. The situation would be different if the West could give the U. similar weapons capable of destroying vital infrastructure deep inside Russia but it’s just non-existent. They just don’t have anything that launches from land, the Tomahawks are only being adapted by the US Army right now and coming next year, at the soonest. With the resources the sides have/will realistically have access to, including what’s coming via the Land-Lease (i.e. no aircraft, cruise missiles, or area air defense), there’s no winning for U. on the battlefield. Keep in mind the Kremlin can still trade freely w/China, India, the Arab world etc., the isolation is far from complete, and they are sulf-sufficient for food.
Fluffy Dog
May 8, 2022 at 5:42 pm
ahm… gentlemen, can we ignore “Alex” and its propaganda? it’s irritating, but since there is no moderation here, can we just let it be?
Peace-keeping nukes of US arsenal
May 8, 2022 at 7:15 pm
Joe ‘iron Mike Tyson’ Biden with his great mind thinks his final mission in life is to take down Vladimir ‘killer’ putin of russia just like how Hitler once thought the same thing about the Soviet union.
“It will collapse within a few months” the German leader told his underlings.
Biden is virtually conveying the same message to the G7 and his Europe vassals or minions. “Just tighten the sanctions screws.Russia will collapse before/by November 8 2022.”
Little does Biden realize that both US and Europe don’t have the balls to play nuclear roulette with Russia. Will Paris or Berlin or London trade places with cities in ukraine.If Russian forces hit a munitions convoy from the west coming through Lyiv with a nuclear missile, would US or Europe dare to reply with a nuke. They would only dare scream obscenities, more profanities and more verbal threats of sanctions at Russia. Nothing more.
Slack
May 8, 2022 at 7:28 pm
If putin decides to play nuclear football with the west over ukraine, it will be GAME OVER for the neo-fascists in kyiv. The west won’t come to its aid.
The west knows any game of nuclear football initiated by Russia will involve not only Ukrainian targets but also turkey, the country with the second largest army in NATO.
Turkey now controls bosphorus strait and the Dardanelles passage and a couple of nukes will end that control forever.
Western warships will never again enter the Black Sea and NATO can forget ever visiting Georgia as well.
It’s lose lose for the west in any game of nuclear soccer with putin. Or Moscow for that matter.
Exnavynuke
May 8, 2022 at 8:48 pm
Ok troll, I’ve got a few minutes to kill.
When one side starts flinging strategic nuclear weapons, the entire species will lose. My nation has interceptors that may stop some of the incoming, but certainly not all; yours may have the same, although I’m not aware of their existence, but the outcome will be the same: a dead cinder softly glowing with residual nuclear fire. Based on that truism, you can stop waving the nuclear sabre.
Your claim to Russia chasing away other ships conducting freedom on navigation exercises is an actual admission to your nation’s crimes under the UN Convention of the Laws of the Sea, which Russia ratified on March 12, 1997. Further, your statement is inaccurate as China has been known to use their fishing fleet auxiliary to do the same in the Pacific. The concept is a simple one: threaten violence in the belief the other side will back down and thereby avoid a war. It usually works, but incidents can happen that may escalate into a conflict; which is why SANE NATIONS DO NOT ATTEMPT TO RAM OTHER PEOPLE’S SHIPS!
Jack
May 9, 2022 at 10:16 am
Putin will be dead in 10 years or less.
Then Russia will be eager to rejoin the world as normal country to advance their living standards.
The people of Russia will insist on this….soon
OIF Combat Vet
May 9, 2022 at 11:18 am
Looks like Ukraine bought more than just Hunter’s influence than we thought. Billions of unaccountable money siphoned off to the Ukraine and nothing for our undefended borders or the 100,000 yearly drug overdose linked to China and Mexico.
mawendt
May 9, 2022 at 11:53 am
I think our (Western) problem has devolved back to our liberal media tactic: vilify and stir up hate and anxiety against something/someone.
Notice it’s all anti-“RussiaRussiaRussia”. The truth is that it is the *Putin Government* and *Putin Ideology* that is wicked, not Russia or the Russian people.
The Russian people translate and read our Western media coverage, as inaccurate a it is. It’s filled with hate for Russia, and that doesn’t make them secure.
The West needs to change the narrative to “Hey, we love you Russians, and want to be your partners economically, politically, and technologically, but your Putin Government is leading you over a cliff. Do something about it, quick, before it gets out of hand. We want to be friends, not enemies.”
Each day we brag about killing Russian soldiers (who ultimately, like any nation, obey their bosses), speaking condescendingly about the quality of Russian equipment destroyed by Western weapons, snarking about how easy it is assassinating Russian Generals and Officers, self-righteously layering more sanctions… it is driving the common Russian person to protect Mother Russia not because they like/want Putin, but because they start to believe the West wants them weak and destroyed.
We’re screwing up long term. We need to let the Russian people know we are their friends while target Putin and his ilk. The only way get rid of Russia as our enemy is to become Russia’s friend.
Right now, our Western politics and media is pushing us to hate an giant, evil Russian monster that isn’t there. It’s a little but deadly Putin cobra that needs to be struck.
Exnavynuke
May 9, 2022 at 5:29 pm
I agree with your thesis without reservation. I further think the people running the government and media in the US also agree, which is why they’re pushing the alienation narrative so hard.
It simply isn’t in the best interest of the ruling class in the US to tamp down the flames of war, for fear their own domestic perfidy will come to light prematurely.
Michael Veritas
May 9, 2022 at 12:10 pm
Robert Kelly’s trying to spin Ukrainians coming defeat as victory. Mariupol is lost. The land bridge to Crimea is secure. If Kiev loses Odesa they’re cut of from Black Sea. Ukrainian has majority of their army in east with long supply lines that will be difficult or impossible to maintain. Should those vital supplies be cut and their army encircled that’s game over. Looks like this writer is channeling his inner Baghdad Bob!
Fred Adams
May 9, 2022 at 1:29 pm
The US and Western Europe are involved in a proxy war against Russia, by Russia’s choice. Russia is losing its military reputation, soldiers and general staff, while NATO loses only materiel. As time goes on, economic sanctions against Russia will stop the Kremlin’s war machine. The West’s economic engine will easily outlast Russia’s. Mr. Putin erred gravely in starting this war: he apparently cannot quickly win it and he cannot win it slowly.
The war has destroyed Russia’s credibility as a responsible world power, revealing that aggressive Russian imperialism persists under Putin as it did under Stalin and the Tsars. The world agrees that Russia has no rights and no paternal prerogatives in Ukraine. Russia’s aggression against a sovereign state proves that present-day Russia is a threat to world peace and order.
The Ukraine’s continued survival against the much-vaunted Russian military machine has seriously damaged the reputation of the latter, which is being exposed as inhumanely cruel but somewhat ineffectual. The failure to quickly achieve a victory in Ukraine allows time for the slower but inevitable victory of the much stronger Western economies. Russia’s military is earning paper tiger status.
It appears that in time Russia will lose this war, nukes notwithstanding.
A central problem is that a much weakened Russia will create a power vacuum in a location of strategic importance. Historically, Russia has been a bulwark against Chinese and Muslim expansionism. We need a relatively strong state where Russia is to maintain that function. We don’t need an enemy, but rather a friend. How to attain that in the face of 5 centuries of unmitigated Russian expansionism is the great question. They aren’t our enemy, but they do believe that we are theirs.
Much thought must be given not just to winning this proxy war, but also to creating and maintaining a strong Russia that is firmly aligned with the West for the future. Russia has long demanded a dominant place at the international table. Our problem is to create a post-war Russia that is willing to forgo the demand for dominance and accept a place as an equal among equals. For this to happen, Russia must see itself as an equal, which it truly never has. Perhaps it must be crushed to prepare the groundwork for a stable future state.
Jacksonian Libertarian
May 9, 2022 at 4:55 pm
I’ve been saying Russia will lose since before the invasion started. I’ve been saying this for several powerful reasons.
1. Man portable guided missiles-The evolution of weapons has crossed a threshold which makes all armored and unguided weapons obsolete.
In 2017 the longest (3,540 meters) recorded sniper kill shot was made in Afghanistan, by a gifted sniper with years of practice and training. In 30 mins, a recruit can be trained to fire a Javelin the same distance, and kill a tank on the first shot.
2. Logistics-In the event of a Russian invasion the 1st world with it’s high tech deep pockets was always going to supply Ukraine, if Ukraine was willing to fight. What’s more supplying the Russian combined arms army is a logistical nightmare requiring megatons of fuel, ammo, spare parts, etc. daily. While the 1st World supplying light man portable missiles, each one nearly guaranteed to one-shot, one-kill Russian armored vehicles and aircraft, is a hundreds of times easier task.
“Captains should study tactics, but Generals must study logistics”
3. Politics-Democracies and Authoritarian countries have different types of Armies.
Democracies have field armies designed to destroy other field armies.
Authoritarian countries have Regime Protection armies. Basically heavily armed police designed to ensure the loyalty of the people, in order to keep the Regime in power.
“Morale is to material as 3 to 1” Napoléon.
An army fighting to defend it’s country is much more powerful than an army fighting for the territorial ambitions of the regime.
John Willson
May 9, 2022 at 5:29 pm
What crap. Where has Ukraine achieved a thing except in the western press? If this is to be the GOP line, forget me and forget the fall elections.
Fred Adams
May 10, 2022 at 1:29 am
Ukraine is still there, fighting. That’s an achievement. The non-troll line here isn’t a GOP line. It’s just personal comment.
Bertram
May 10, 2022 at 3:18 am
Shoot a Russian. Its not hard.
tired
May 10, 2022 at 3:31 am
If Ukraine’s end goal is to be “democratic and independent,” they must cut all ties to the Biden administration at the end of the conflict. Biden will never allow them full autonomy, he’s got too many secrets there.
CK
May 10, 2022 at 9:41 am
lol, crazies out in force, from left to right, Russia through to the US.
Not much to add besides what has already been said by people that haven’t tinted their views with rose colored MAGA or Kremlin glasses.
The only way Russia “wins” this war, is through the use of nukes. That’s it. There is no other possible scenario in which they can win. They don’t have the troops, the materiel, the economy, the allies, the time or the clout.
And even in a 100% complete annexation of Ukraine, then what? You have annexed a nuclear wasteland. Your border with NATO is now thousands of miles long, because you moved your own border West, and then sent Finland and Sweden into their arms. Your economy is a mess.
What is left of your conventional forces is almost completely destroyed, and the entire world sees your modern, well equipped fleets are just smoke and mirrors.
Tell me exactly how this benefits Russia in the long run?
That’s the best-case scenario!
Alex
May 10, 2022 at 10:58 am
And now, instead of tantrums and fantasies, let’s face it.
Zelensky is a Kremlin agent.
So in just two months:
1. Actively extorted money from the West.
2. Strengthened the ruble.
3. In addition to the Crimea, he gave Donbass to Russia.
4.. Turned off the gas at the whole of Europe, sending it to the Middle Ages.
5. Ruined the pockets of drivers, farmers, entrepreneurs and manufacturers in the EU and the US.
6. Since the beginning of the special operation, almost all major competitors from Russia have left, making room for Russian entrepreneurs.
7. Begging for so many weapons that even Scholz said that the Bundeswehr was running out of weapons “for himself.”
8. He collected all the crap of the Ukrainian Nazi subculture – tattooed Nazis, outcasts, idiots, maniacs, murderers from Europe and other countries in one place, where the Russians kill them in batches and promptly deliver them to Bandera.
9. United the Russian people around their leader. Russia has never known such powerful support for the actions of the President and his cabinet during all the terms of his reign.
10. He sent into emigration the entire corrupt beau monde of the Russian stage and cinema, with pockets full of “wishes” from the grateful Russian people.
Never before has Russia been as good as under Zelensky.
Alex
May 10, 2022 at 12:43 pm
Jim Chambers (Fergie Chambers) – a journalist from NY spoke about how he SAW the attacks of Ukrainian fascists on peaceful Ukrainians. He told how he SAW what horrors the Bandera Nazis were doing to the Ukrainians. He said that food and medicine appeared when the Russian Liberators came.
He told how he SAW Nazi paraphernalia wherever the military of Ukraine abandoned their positions (swastikas, Mein Kampf books, paintings by Hitler, Bandera, etc.).
He SAW how opponents of the regime of the Ukrainian authorities were detained, tortured and killed. He told how the people of Ukraine are waging their struggle for existence and for peace without Bandera Nazis. He spoke about how the Russian liberators help civilians and the Ukrainians ask the Russians not to leave. The Ukrainians are upset that the Russians came late, they should have come earlier.
He said: “Our American weapons have only exacerbated the useless bloodshed in a battle that the Ukrainian fascists can never win. I am ashamed to carry an American passport with me. The world desperately needs a Russian victory: at the end of Ukrainian Nazism and at the end of the American NATO empire. World needs victory for freedom.”
Alex
May 10, 2022 at 1:56 pm
Graham William Phillips is an outstanding British journalist who objectively and unbiasedly covers events in Ukraine.
He is in a war zone and interviews all sides. He confirms the existence of Bandera Nazis who brutally torture and kill Ukrainians just because they do not want to see Bandera Nazis in their country.
He confirms that the Ukrainians are asking the Russian liberators not to leave them anymore and not to leave.
It is interesting to see how Graham interviews Aiden Aislin, a Briton who fought on the side of Ukraine as part of the Nazi Azov Battalion and was taken prisoner in Mariupol.
The truth will always see the world thanks to such professionals, and not propagandists, who sometimes have never been to Ukraine and are thousands of miles away.
No Nazism. We – free people will win.
Pedro
May 10, 2022 at 3:23 pm
Jajajaja…. Nice movie y all wachtching; NATO is the real bully here. Too much Rambo here.
Petros
May 10, 2022 at 6:28 pm
Sophomoric propaganda selling the false idea Russia is neutered. Useless Pablum.
But why are you trying to sell this false reality? That’s the article someone else writes that I want to read.
Alex
May 11, 2022 at 12:09 pm
A bit of truth.
The head of the UN monitoring mission, Matilda Bogner, said that the organization has reliable information about the torture of Russian soldiers in Ukrainian captivity:
“Ukraine and Russia must promptly and effectively investigate all allegations of torture and ill-treatment of prisoners of war,” she said.
The military-civilian administration of the Kherson region announced their intention to appeal to Putin with a request to include the region into Russia:
“We intend to live as part of the Russian Federation. We fully cooperate and feel as one with the regions of Russia.”
Pfizer, Moderna, Merck, Gilead are testing medicines in Ukraine, bypassing international safety standards, reducing the costs of research programs and gaining significant competitive advantages. Coronavirus vaccine manufacturers have been involved in US military biological activities.
Along with American pharmaceutical companies and Pentagon contractors, Ukrainian state structures are involved in military biological activities, the main tasks of which are to conceal illegal activities, conduct field and clinical trials, and provide the necessary biomaterial.
The American side expanded its research potential both in the field of creating biological weapons and in the field of obtaining information about antibiotic resistance and the presence of antibodies to various diseases in the population of specific regions.
Ukraine has long become a training ground for Western countries to create biological weapons components and test new samples of pharmaceuticals.
The United States, as part of its military biological program in Ukraine, used Mariupol as a regional center for work with the cholera pathogen.
Evidence was obtained of the emergency destruction of documents confirming work with the US military department. A preliminary analysis of the surviving documentation indicates the use of Mariupol as a regional center for the collection and certification of the cholera pathogen.
The selected strains were sent to the public health center in Kyiv, which is entrusted with the functions of further sending biomaterials to the United States.
This activity has been carried out since 2014, which is confirmed by the acts of transfer of strains.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby on Fox News recalled that the United States supplied weapons to Ukraine long before the start of the Russian special operation.
“The Biden administration was supplying weapons long before the invasion. The first billion dollars that the president allocated for Ukraine did indeed include assistance with lethal weapons … The United States, Canada, Britain, other allies actually helped prepare the Ukrainians, ”Kirby quoted the TV channel as saying.
As military experts and analysts had previously assumed, Ukraine would have brought down all its military power on the Donbass in any case, but Russia was the first to come to the aid of Donyuass.
The world is watching. The world sees. Lies are dying.