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Who Would Replace Joe Biden If He Passes on 2024?

Joe Biden on the Campaign Trail
Town Hall at International Longshoreman's Association Hall - Charleston, SC - July 7, 2019.

If Joe Biden doesn’t run for re-election in 2024, who could replace him on the Democratic ticket? We need to preface our answer with an admission that pundits often like to talk about primary challenges to the President at a midterm, even when there is little to no reason to believe that the incumbent will step back. It is extremely rare for an eligible incumbent to decline to run, with the most recent case being Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968. Even then, President Johnson did not step back until the primary season had already begun, and by some accounts expected to be acclaimed the nominee at the Democratic convention in any case.

A primary race in the shadow of an eligible incumbent could play out much differently than a typical Presidential primary. Much would depend to great extent on how early Joe Biden made his intention to decline to run for re-election public. Given that process will matter, it’s tough to assess the contours of a primary race without knowing all the facts. Nevertheless, it’s hardly premature to begin thinking about some of the most viable candidates.

The Heirs Apparent Within the Administration

In 1968 Lyndon Johnson was succeeded as nominee by Vice President Hubert Humphrey, although not before a bitter primary fight that saw chaos at the Democratic convention and was punctuated by the assassination of Senator Robert Kennedy, one of the chief contestants. While it’s hardly a cinch, Vice President Kamala Harris would have substantial advantages in entering a primary contest.

It is true that Vice President Harris’ popularity numbers have suffered even more than President Biden’s, and that she has yet to develop a strong rapport with the media gatekeepers who will structure political coverage in 2024. Still, starting from the position of Vice President would represent an enormous advantage for Harris, as she would carry the implicit endorsement of President Biden and of the administration.

Apart from Harris, Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg likely cuts the most impressive figure. Buttigieg made a splash in his unsuccessful 2020 run, outperforming expectations and earning himself a place in the cabinet. Buttigieg has remained largely untouched by the difficulties of the Biden administration and appears to be the favorite of many who mistrust Harris’ chances.

The Old Guard

Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont continues to represent the left wing of the party (even though he does not remain a part of the party), but he couldn’t build a big enough coalition in 2020 and the media has blamed the problems faced by the Democrats today (altogether unfairly) on excessive left-influence over policy (disclosure notice: the author volunteered as a consultant for the Sanders campaign in 2020).

The idea of a run by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is beloved of the pundit community, mostly for the lulz, but she has explicitly ruled out running again, and in any case, there is no indication that she can command the loyalty within the party that allowed her to content in 2008 and win in 2016.

Other candidates such as John Kerry, Elizabeth Warren, and even Al Gore avoid some of the problems posed by Sanders and Clinton but run face-to-face with another issue; the problem with the Old Guard is that they are, well, old.

Fairly or no, if Joe Biden decides not to pursue re-election explanations will focus on his age, and in this context, it won’t make much sense to nominate a successor with the same issue.  Of course, if Donald Trump is the Republican nominee the problem could become moot, at least as a general election issue.

The Governors and the Senators

A variety of state governors and senators could make a strong case for the nomination in 2024.

Corey Booker of New Jersey and Amy Klobuchar performed creditably in the 2020 primary before bowing out, and both have maintained a degree of national prominence.

Governor Gavin Newsom of California comes with all the advantages and disadvantages of that state’s complicated politics, bringing the potential for a huge war chest and a big home-field advantage but also the general distaste for CA in the rest of the country.

Jared Polis of Colorado has left-wing bonafides and a strong base of support in the Mountain West.

Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan has faced down white supremacist militias in her own state and would offer some hope of reclaiming Democratic electoral votes in the Upper Midwest.

J.B. Pritzker of Illinois would have some of the same advantages, and also enjoys a strong relationship with former President Barack Obama.

A Longshot to Watch

Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky is perhaps the most interesting longshot. Beshear is not well known nationally, but he is one of the most popular Democratic governors despite governing in a deep red state. Beshear is up for re-election in November 2023 (Kentucky has off-off-year elections) and would need to win a difficult race against formidable opponents in order to contend for higher office. However, winning that race would substantially increase his profile, and he would have the machinery in place to continue if he so desired. Of course, his ability to win the Kentucky race is probably contingent on keeping any further ambitions secret, which would be a tough haul as Presidential primary deadlines approached.

But Will Joe Biden Really Bow Out?

The most likely Democratic candidate in 2024 is… Joe Biden. Biden reportedly believes that only he can defeat Donald Trump, and despite all the speculation about stepping away, there have been no noises from within Biden’s inner circle indicating that he plans to stand down. Biden’s prospects may look grim at the moment but there is plenty of time between now and 2024 to flip the table.

Nevertheless, Democrats should keep in mind that it may be necessary to find a new candidate for the 2024 election.

A 1945 Contributing Editor, Dr. Robert Farley has taught security and diplomacy courses at the Patterson School since 2005. He received his BS from the University of Oregon in 1997, and his Ph. D. from the University of Washington in 2004. Dr. Farley is the author of Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force (University Press of Kentucky, 2014), the Battleship Book (Wildside, 2016), and Patents for Power: Intellectual Property Law and the Diffusion of Military Technology (University of Chicago, 2020). He has contributed extensively to a number of journals and magazines, including the National Interest, the Diplomat: APAC, World Politics Review, and the American Prospect. Dr. Farley is also a founder and senior editor of Lawyers, Guns and Money.

Written By

Dr. Robert Farley has taught security and diplomacy courses at the Patterson School since 2005. He received his BS from the University of Oregon in 1997, and his Ph.D. from the University of Washington in 2004. Dr. Farley is the author of Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force (University Press of Kentucky, 2014), the Battleship Book (Wildside, 2016), and Patents for Power: Intellectual Property Law and the Diffusion of Military Technology (University of Chicago, 2020). He has contributed extensively to a number of journals and magazines, including the National Interest, the Diplomat: APAC, World Politics Review, and the American Prospect. Dr. Farley is also a founder and senior editor of Lawyers, Guns and Money.

14 Comments

14 Comments

  1. Omega 13

    July 14, 2022 at 2:51 pm

    “Apart from Harris, Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg likely cuts the most impressive figure.”

    God, you folks live in a bubble. Mayor Petey has made a shambles of the Transportation Department. Impressive figure? Hah. He has ONE thing going for him (with dem voters)… he’s gay. That’s it. He’s beyond pathetic. Couldn’t even fix the roads when he was mayor of South Bend.

    The candidate will be that scumbag Newsom. Why? Name recognition and the ability to raise money, despite being governor of the state voted “most likely to declare Chapter 11.”

    I will say this. Suddenly you love you some dems!

  2. Froike

    July 14, 2022 at 2:59 pm

    An Empty Beer Can would make a better President than Bidet.

  3. Scottfs

    July 14, 2022 at 3:06 pm

    I live in California. Governor Doofus is an incompetent empty suit. He has zero chance. California is a mess. Everyone has seen the pictures.

    Colorado used to be red. The massive influx of illegal aliens has turned it blue. Now you know why Democrats, who profess to be environmentalists, are willing to destroy the environment for votes.

    Biden is already senile and has screwed up the country totally.

  4. Ghost Tomahawk

    July 14, 2022 at 7:41 pm

    Well the Easter Bunny has been running the country so why does it matter if Joe finally dies?

  5. pagar

    July 14, 2022 at 10:45 pm

    Who would replace Biden ?

    Who, who ?

    Anyone is good enough to take the place of the 80-year-old piece of dross. Anyone, from old ,old Bernie Sanders, to AOC,to,to,to…somebody like George Floyd.

  6. L'amateur d'aéroplanes

    July 15, 2022 at 1:16 am

    That’s the problem with elections in the United States, those elected must immediately think about the next one and not the time to govern seriously.

  7. CRS, DrPH

    July 15, 2022 at 2:30 am

    I wish the Dems hadn’t thrown General David Patraeus under the bus!!

  8. Him

    July 15, 2022 at 2:31 am

    The Americans are like all human beings, primarily influenced by the majority. Hence, when their majority-Media tells them that something is “baseless”, the majority-American is like the majority-Russian: they go along with what their Media tells them.

    It matters little whether the person is highly educated, intelligent or the opposite. Even an intelligent person can be primarily driven to follow the consensus. Very few people are willing to go against the consensus of the majority.

    Hence, when the Media tells the people that allegations of election fraud were “baseless” – the typical American will laugh at anyone who examines the evidence, because they think it is silly to even think there was evidence, when the Media commands them to think that it was “baseless”.

    Remember, the majority consensus often includes very highly educated people — and this majority is filled with most who will not go against the consensus.

    You can spot these people very quickly: Anyone who insults others using the phrase “conspiracy theory” is instantly shown to be a person who is primarily driven by following the consensus, rather than a person that examines evidence.

    This is because, throughout history, there have been conspiracies. So a “conspiracy theory” – by definition – is a suspicion that there has been a conspiracy. By definition, it is a neutral word. A “conspiracy theory” is either true or false.

    Whereas, the Media now uses the term “conspiracy theory” as a slanderous word, implying that 100% of conspiracy theories are false.

    Hence, anyone who falls into line by using the term “conspiracy theory” as a slanderous insult – rather than a technical dictionary definition – those people, who make up the bulk of the majority – are those who consensus-followers.

    Here’s a test for any journalist: Get them to list 20 pieces of evidence of 2020 Election Fraud that they think is “baseless”. They can’t. They arrived at the conclusion that it was “baseless” because the News told them that.

    And when the Media is primarily populated by people like that, you end up with a dumbed-down population. And the nation enters its decline. That is how once-powerful Empires fall.

  9. Shazbut

    July 15, 2022 at 6:24 am

    It will be Michelle Obama.

  10. Stefan Stackhouse

    July 15, 2022 at 10:12 am

    The Democrat’s best bet might be to hope that another vacancy on the Supreme Court opens up so that Biden can nominate Kamila to the post. That actually would fit her better, just as the USSC fit Taft better than the Presidency did.

    Getting both Biden and Harris out of the way would then allow for a truly open primary field.

  11. AJ in Iowa

    July 15, 2022 at 3:01 pm

    Cory not Corey Booker

  12. Steve

    July 15, 2022 at 5:16 pm

    Senator Sherrod Brown?

  13. MoZeu

    July 15, 2022 at 11:47 pm

    PA Governor Tom Wolf.

  14. Mimi

    July 18, 2022 at 8:45 am

    Nobody is going to vote for a woman President. We haven’t come that far yet.

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