The results of the survey indicate that 61 percent of respondents do not believe Trump should run for reelection. Meanwhile, 70 percent of respondents do not believe Biden should run for reelection.
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The survey also found that both Biden and Trump lack support for reelection within their own parties. 37 percent of Republicans do not want Trump to run again, whereas 61 percent of independents and 88 percent of Democrats do not want Trump to run again. 57 percent of Democrats do not want Biden to run again, whereas 66 percent of independents and 86 percent of Republicans do not want Biden to run again.
The numbers shouldn’t come as much of a surprise; both men have suffered from atrocious favorability ratings during their respective time in office.
Why is the public so opposed to Biden running for reelection?
Democrats don’t want Biden to run for reelection. In large part, Democrats desire an alternative candidate because of Biden’s age. Biden is already the oldest sitting president ever at 80 years old. If Biden runs for reelection, and wins, his second term would last from his 82nd until his 86th birthday.
The life expectancy for a US male is 77, meaning to survive through a second term, Biden would need to exceed the life expectancy for his demographic by nearly a decade.
While Biden will have access to the best healthcare of any single person in human history, installing the octogenarian for a second term is statistically a gamble.
Democrats also recognize what they are too polite to acknowledge: Biden is not as sharp as he used to be. Biden used to be articulate and sharp, even as recently as during Obama’s term within which Biden served as vice president. Biden was keeping up.
Now, Biden is stumbling over words and, occasionally, not making any sense. Biden looks and sounds old. Democrats are asking themselves what Biden will look like in six more years.
Why is the public so opposed to Trump running for reelection?
Trump is also pretty old – too old for the presidency – but that’s not what makes the public so opposed to another presidential run.
Trump is embroiled in a variety of lawsuits, investigations, and scandals. Democrats have always hated Trump with vigor, but now conservatives are starting to get some Trump fatigue. And many conservatives are starting to wonder whether Trump has the capacity to win another election.
Trump did lose the 2020 presidential election, after all. Granted, many conservatives aren’t willing to admit that Trump lost in 2020 – but most conservatives understand that Trump lost (by seven million votes).
Conservatives are beginning to recognize simple pragmatism: Trump is a loser, and losers have a tough time winning presidential elections.
The midterms elections demonstrated concretely that Trump is a tough sell right now. Trump-endorsed candidates were trounced. Only one Trump-endorsee (JD Vance of Ohio) won an election in a battleground state.
Accordingly, many conservatives are pointing the finger at Trump, blaming the outspoken former president for conservative failures to recapture the Senate.
If Biden announces, he’ll capture the DNC nomination, uncontested. Trump’s bid for the GOP ticket will be contested. In fact, Trump will have a difficult path to earning his third straight GOP ticket – but he’s got a solid shot.
And the 2024 general election could feature precisely the matchup voters fear most: Biden v. Trump.
Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison lives in Oregon and listens to Dokken.