Donald Trump has hinted that he would skip the first Republican presidential debate in Wisconsin.
He gave a couple of reasons. One, he’s leading by so much, and two, he thinks Fox News has been mean to him.
Trump doesn’t see the point in sharing the stage with any of his opponents.
“Why would I give them time to make statements? Why would I do that when I’m leading them by 50 points and 60 points,” Trump said, maybe exaggerating a little. But his lead is significant. “We’ve had a lot of offers, whether it’s a rally or whether it’s an interview by somebody else.”
He added, “Not to be braggadocious but the debate will not be a very exciting one if I’m not there.”
Trump doesn’t want to be braggadocious? There’s always a first. In this case, he may be right though.
Donald Trump and the Hide Strategy
It’s not unheard of for a frontrunner to duck debates. In the lead-up to the 2000 primary, Republican frontrunner George W. Bush didn’t show up to the early debates. In the 2012 primary cycle, Mitt Romney skipped as well until later. They allowed the other guys to look like a JV team.
In fact, just look back at the 2020 Democratic primary. Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg had great poll numbers going into Super Tuesday. As a late entrant, he didn’t initially qualify for the debates—so he had an excuse duck. But he insisted on debating, and he crashed and burned because of it.
In the case of Trump, he’s far ahead of his opponents. Trump is rightfully accused of not listening to political advisors. But he’s likely listening in this instance. What does Trump have to gain by debating? At least for now.
The question isn’t whether he shows up for the first debate–rather it’s whether he shows for any. He could instead counterprogram–hoping to boost Newsmax ratings higher than Fox News for the debates.
NBC News reported that someone who has encouraged Trump to join the fray now says: “He is not going to debate unless he’s forced to by changing polling.”
Let’s stipulate that polls could change. Jeb Bush was an early frontrunner in the 2016 cycle and Hillary Clinton looked unstoppable early in the 2008 cycle. Neither were actually former presidents though–only family members.
For 2024, the numbers suggest that Trump is in a tier of his own. His nearest challenger, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, is lagging about 30 points behind. There really isn’t even a second tier. There is Trump, then DeSantis occupying the third tier, with usually a 10-point lead over any other GOP rival, who competing for single digits in the fourth tier.
The second apparent reason is that Trump is angry at Fox. He said that anchor Bret Baier gave a “nasty” interview, and said on Truth Social, “All they do is promote, against all hope, Ron DeSanctimonious, and he’s dropping like a rock. Sorry Fox News, life doesn’t work that way!!!”
So, who else gets a Republican debate? Does Trump just boycott Fox News and show up for another network?
The GOP worked with CNN in 2016 and prior years. But that was before CNN went off the rails and tried to become MSNBC-lite. Speaking of which, MSNBC hasn’t had a Republican debate since the 2008 cycle, (Fox hasn’t had a Democrat primary debate since the 2004 cycle). CNBC roughed up the candidates in 2015, and left a bad relationship. So maybe Bloomberg, Newsmax or News Nation. But there aren’t that many options that reach a lot of households.
The poll numbers will have to change for Trump to change his mind. That could happen. But there’s no sign of it. The two indictments helped Trump as much as anything else, sending his numbers soaring. Maybe his numbers would fall if he could just go a few months without an indictment–but that’s also pretty unlikely with Georgia and more from special counsel Jack Smith around the corner.
Barbara Joanna Lucas is a writer and researcher in Northern Virginia. She has been a healthcare professional, political blogger, is a proud dog mom, and news junkie.
From 19FortyFive
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