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Donald Trump’s Rush for Ukraine Peace Talks Could Be a Giant Mistake

M777 Howitzers. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
U.S. Marines with Golf Battery, 2d Battalion, 11th Marines, currently attached to the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, and Australian Defence Forces with 109th Battery, 4th Regiment, fire an M777 155 mm Howitzer during Exercise Talisman Sabre 21 on Shoalwater Bay Training Area, Queensland, Australia, July 17, 2021. Australian and U.S. Forces combine biennually for Talisman Sabre, a month-long multi-domain exercise that strengthens allied and partner capabilities to respond to the full range of Indo-Pacific security concerts. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Ujian Gosun)

During the 2024 campaign, candidate Donald Trump said he could resolve the Ukraine war in twenty-four hours by getting together with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky to thrash things out. At a January 7 press conference, President-elect Trump conceded it could take up to six months.  

Call that learning.  

Trump fundamentally wants the war to disappear. He has said repeatedly it would never have occurred had he been President, as he has also said about the ongoing Middle East conflict. Of course, these statements are not provable nor disprovable, but they reflect his visceral feeling that the wars are Biden’s problem and should disappear when Biden does.

Neither war will disappear so quickly, but Trump’s comments strongly suggest that he is indifferent to the terms on which they end. That is likely bad news for Ukraine, though it could be good news for Israel in its struggle against Iran’s “ring of fire” strategy.

The Ceasefire Challenge: Good or Bad Idea? 

As Inauguration Day nears, little information is publicly available about what Trump will do. And, because he has neither a coherent philosophy nor a strategic approach to foreign affairs, what he says in the morning may not apply in the afternoon.

Accordingly, those concerned for Ukrainian and Western security should focus on what is negotiable with Moscow and what is not. Early decisions on the central components of potential diplomacy can have far-reaching implications that the parties will inevitably try to turn to their benefit. Ukraine, especially, must make several key decisions about how to proceed. Consider the following.

Although a cease-fire linked to commencing negotiations may be inevitable because of pressure from Trump, such a cease-fire is not necessarily in Ukraine’s interest. Talking while fighting was a successful strategy for the Chinese Communist Party in its struggle against the Kuomintang during and after World War II. It could work for Ukraine today under certain conditions. Most important is the continued supply of adequate military assistance, which is questionable with Trump in office.

But a cease-fire can be more perilous for Ukraine than for Russia: the longer negotiations take, the more likely the cease-fire lines become permanent, a new border between Ukraine and Russia far into the future. As negotiations proceed, the absence of hostilities will provide opportunities for Moscow to seek full or at least partial easing of economic sanctions, which many Europeans seem poised to concede. 

Moreover, once hostilities stop, they are far harder politically to resume, which is also likely to Ukraine’s disadvantage. Although Russia would probably win an indefinite war of attrition, it also needs time to rebuild its debilitated military and economy. A cease-fire affords that opportunity and thereby buys time for Russia to heal its wounds and prepare for the next attack.  Russia waited eight years after its 2014 offensive and can afford to wait again until the West is distracted elsewhere.  

Suppose Trump insists on a cease-fire-in-place and contemporaneous negotiations. In that case, Ukraine must be careful to avoid having the talks aim at a permanent solution rather than a temporary accommodation. Russia will see any deal as temporary, no matter what it says publicly. Vladimir Putin obsesses over reincorporating Ukraine into a new Russian empire, and each slice of territory Russia takes back brings that goal closer. Negotiating an “end” to the war plays into the Kremlin’s hands since it provides the false impression to gullible Westerners that there is no risk of future aggression.

Both the cease-fire issue and the duration of any deal raise two other questions:  should there be “peacekeepers” along the cease-fire line, and should Ukraine insist on “security guarantees” from the West (NATO or otherwise) against future Russian aggression?

Peacekeeping is operationally complex and rarely successful in any sense other than helping prolong a military stalemate. That is nearly the uniform outcome of UN peacekeeping.  Peacekeeping forces (like UNIFIL in Lebanon or UNDOF on the Golan Heights) become part of the landscape in peace or war. The Security Council loses interest in resolving the sources of the underlying conflict. The peacekeepers become irrelevant, as recent developments along the cease-fire line between Israel and Syria demonstrate. In short, peacekeepers are essentially only hollow symbols.  

Indeed, the recognition of UN ineffectiveness has likely inspired calls for deploying NATO peacekeepers along the Ukraine-Russia line of control. But does anyone expect Russia to agree meekly?  Will Moscow not suggest peacekeepers from Iran or North Korea along with NATO? Moreover, there has been little discussion about what a peacekeeping force’s rules of engagement would be, whether deployed by the UN or NATO. Would these rules be typical of UN operations, where the peacekeepers can only use force only in self-defense? Or would the rules be more robust, allowing force in aid of their mission? Really? In aid of their mission, NATO peacekeepers would be allowed to use force against Russian troops? Or Ukrainian troops? In such circumstances, potential troop-contributing countries would make themselves very scarce.

M777

U.S. Marines fire an M777 Howitzer during Exercise Rolling Thunder 1-22 at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, U.S. October 19, 2021. Picture taken October 19, 2021. U.S. Marine Corps/Lance Cpl. Brian Bolin Jr./Handout

Future security guarantees for Ukraine, which it is insisting upon, are unfortunately likely to be blue smoke and mirrors. Russia has repeatedly said that NATO membership  —  the only security guarantee that really matters  —  is a deal-breaker. European Union security guarantees?

Good luck with that. Security guarantees by individual nations? That was the approach of the Budapest agreements on returning Soviet nuclear weapons to Russia; they didn’t work out so well. In short, “security guarantees” are mellifluous words, but evanescent without US and NATO participation, which Trump seems unlikely to endorse.

Time For Ukraine to Be Cautious 

Negotiations are looming primarily because Trump wants the war to go away. Europe is too tired and too incapable of charting a different course. Contemplating these depressing scenarios, therefore, Ukraine and its supporters may have little choice but to acquiesce in talks on unfavorable terms.

For that very reason, Kyiv should be very cautious on what it agrees with Trump.

About the Author: Ambassador John R. Bolton 

Ambassador John R. Bolton served as national security adviser under President Donald J. Trump. He is the author of “The Room Where It Happened: A White House Memoir.” You can follow him on Twitter: @AmbJohnBolton.

Written By

Ambassador John R. Bolton served as national security adviser under President Donald J. Trump. He is the author of “The Room Where It Happened: A White House Memoir.” You can follow him on Twitter: @AmbJohnBolton.

13 Comments

13 Comments

  1. Zhduny

    January 12, 2025 at 9:28 pm

    Very true and right ON THE Money ! Right on the money.

    NO NEED TO RUSH. No need at all. Let the russkies pummel the neo-nazis to a bloody
    bloody pulp.

    After that has been accomplished, conditions will automatically become very conducive for peace negotiations.

    Recall the terrible bloody blood-bloody christmas bombings of december 1972. Peace negotiations were then completed in lightning fast & double quick time.

    Now is the period to just stand back and let moscow pound the neo-nazis into submission and then after it’s done proceed straight to switzerland for final peace talks.

  2. JingleBells

    January 12, 2025 at 10:54 pm

    Nobody can resolve a horribly horribly convoluted war like the present Ukraine conflict in a mere twenty-four hours.

    Recall the horrible horrible pacific war.

    Even after two nuke bombs, the japs only officially agreed to surrender after about nearly a week later.

    Very sadly, in Ukraine today, nobody, absolutely nobody, has the guts to use nukes.

    Result is massive massive casualty tolls. Like in WW1.

  3. RequestBeingVerified

    January 13, 2025 at 2:45 am

    The new trump administration in washington mustn’t do ANYTHING in ukraine until after march 2025.

    BEWARE OF THE IDES OF MARCH.

    In march 2025, it’s highly possible UK and french troops could clash with russian forces in eastern ukraine.

    The result – great powers clashing, cruel wars and fortunes lost overnight.

    Not my words, but actual words from famous soothsayer.

  4. Commentar

    January 13, 2025 at 5:27 am

    The ukraine conflict doesn’t need peacekeepers.

    What’s needed is a situation that can be made permanent for the next FIVE HUNDRED years.

    How.

    By emasculating the neo-nazis.

    Once the neo-nazis are fully defanged, they won’t be able to pose a threat to peace for the next 500 years.

  5. Letsgobrandon

    January 13, 2025 at 7:43 am

    At the moment, russian forces are trying to sever the vital pokrovsk-dnipro highway in donetsk.

    What does not mean.

    It means that if the russians successfully cut that vital highway, the ukrainian army will have to beat a hasty retreat or face annihilation.

    Either way, the result could lead to a total collapse of zelenskiy’s eastern front in the conflict.

    Thus the days of zelenskiy’s ability to continue fighting are numbered. The game is about to end.

    Trump needs only to watch from the sidelines and see just how stupid joe biden is.

  6. megiddo

    January 13, 2025 at 8:24 am

    President donald trump must be patient and not be hasty in making any decision on ukraine.

    The reason is the coming february 23 2025 federal election in germany.

    In that election, germany potentially faces huge chaos and great social disorder, as voters are undecided and unsure who to support.

    Should they vote for the pro-war parties that want to send soldiers to ukraine, or should they cast their votes for the anti-war parties that want an immediate end to ukraine aid.

    After february 23, germany could descend into anarchy and possibly a temporary civil war.

    Thus ukraine needs to be put on the backburner for now while the trump administration keeps a close eye on berlin.

    A civil war in berlin could unleash a jihadist uprising in europe’s leading economy due to its very heavy or large presence of moslem migrants.

    2025 could turn out to be a really bad year for europe.

    • George

      January 13, 2025 at 10:03 am

      and then we get to go to war with China? I love you war mongers, the war porn has been outstanding the past 3 years.

  7. Swamplaw Yankee

    January 13, 2025 at 8:24 am

    Bolton may be old enough to remember riding the PCC streetcars in Baltimore. The point, Bolton should understand the the big public system scam to introduce an inefficient replacement to PCC streetcars was not evident to his generation of kids. This “enron” type numbers scam on the PCC streetcars was perpetrated in the public sphere on the voting citizens of Baltimore with no legal recourse, reprecussion or exposure by the Baltimore MSM.
    Bolton today plays into an updated PCC streetcar scam but international style. What has this Colt fan learned about such scams?
    Bolton is one of a battle group of fellows, academics, military and intelligence gamblers desperate to publish before January 20.
    Yes, Ukraine is one of the two theatres of one ongoing war that the new USA regime has to confront in Europe. Ukraine was mishandled by the USA for the whole time frame of the existence of the USA. The USA has a sorry record since independence in their dealings with the Ukrainian people.
    Bolton is simplistic + hopes his readers are all Yankee, sheltered from the outer world, and greatly believe in the Arabella cash induced MSM version of the “mercan” empire.
    Where is Bolton able to conceive of a victory for the USA? Nowhere, I speculate. Bolton may want the Orc Muscovite empire to illegally occupy + grab Ukrainian soil as a prompt way to forfeit American reputation.
    Israel and Ukraine are two theatres in the same war. The EU empire is leaderless and hardly able to initiate a fortress to guard the west from the Orc Muscovite scam red line game.
    Bolton must talk of the Yankee initiative of a Ukrainian Victory, the only way that the USA wins. We see zip of such Victory talk. The installation of a Western run Fortress in Crimea/Sevastopol is immediately + critically needed. Was this not evident in 2014 to Yankee deep thinkers bubbling away behind their aquarium walls?
    Bolton may be observing a growing yellow coward streak in woke weasal words coming out of various NATO countries. As the yellow cowards hear the 5% GNP figure from Trump, a no debate sellout of Ukrainian soil to Putin may seem a real cheap quick way out. Yes, sell out the future of Europe as a western entity because Trump must be distracted by more impactful internal Yankee issues.
    The calculation is such a sell out will cost the USA about a trillion in cash. The sell out of the Baltimore PCC streetcar system could have been opposed by Bolton as a young Baltimore youth. There were young kids his age who saw the scam and reacted. I see no record of his name in print even in letters to the editor.
    Will the world see Bolton state in print that he wants Israel and Ukraine saved? Will Bolton state that before January 20? My analogy is a bit pre-Yankee. 500 years ago Gog attacked Constantinople. The emperor of that empire appealed to Europe for help. Yes, the same scam was used. We in such and such Europe country see no Gog on our border. So, we will send hardware and military about a day or so after Gog slices off all Christian heads in Constantinople. Yes, advice such as Bolton gives. Yankees will not work for your victory but u over there be cautious with the orc muscovites. USA will send help right after u are finished off.
    So, the emperor of this empire donned his armour for battle: never to be seen alive again. The Gog orcs sliced off all heads in Constantinople. And, the fortress of Christianity was no more.
    Bolton hints that he, Bolton, has insight. That the Yankee are tired of problems outside of their glass aquarium walls.
    So then, bluntly tell Israel that all observant jews must prepare for the return of the sharp steel sword blade of Gog that missed them on October 6. Tell the expelled Ukrainians that the Orc Muscovite genociders will never provide reparations and the Yankee wants the Muscovite to have Ukrainian soil and homes for free.
    History demands action. If Trump is astute and adroit, he may have a second chance here to be a World level winner, save a western style Europe with the installation of a long term fortress in Crimea that protects Europe, Israel and Ukraine.
    Or, the yellow cowards in the EU may be rewarded. Spend no GNP on NATO, give away Ukraine to the Orc Muscovites. Muscovites who will facilitate the Gog in their eradication of the object of their hated: observant Jewish people. Just as God warned in the Bible. Read the Bible at your leisure.
    -30-

  8. George

    January 13, 2025 at 10:01 am

    Exactly. Everyone knows Ukraine needs to lose another million men in order to win.

  9. Jim

    January 13, 2025 at 11:01 am

    It’s not just that Trump wants the war to go away.

    Trump knows a foreign war can consume his presidency. We all know there is an important domestic agenda, to do the best to right a badly listing ship of state.

    Ukraine is suffering mightily, both in terms of manpower & physical infrastructure.

    Russia won’t accept a truce or freeze… they have no interest in letting Ukraine rearm via Nato weapons.

    So, insisting on a freeze as a condition of starting negotiations guarantees there won’t be any negotiations at all and the war continues… more death & destruction for Ukraine.

    But, also, should Trump follow this advice, Putin would walk away, snubbing Trump. This could easily lead to Trump having to prove his “strength & toughness” by some kind of escalation.

    The exact opposite of what Trump says he wants to see and risks the war metastasizing towards a possible General European War.

    (Don’t kid yourself, there are war supporters, who would welcome an expanded war, rather than admit the Ukraine policy is a failure.)

    Many war supporters are like a spoiled child who tells her parents, “I want a pony,” and the parents tell her we don’t have the ability to get a pony, and all the spoiled child does is repeat, “I want a pony!”

    What does winning look like at this point?

    When Kiev has a manpower crisis, what good does stepping up weapons shipments do? Which seems to be the only idea the war supporters have at this point.

    Repeating “I want a pony” doesn’t cut it.

    Trump needs to be focused like a laser on stopping the war… if he doesn’t, war supporters will do everything in their power to keep the war going.

    War supporters don’t want any negotiations at all.

    Trump must not play into their hands, and at the time, make the mistake of ending up owning the war… he doesn’t.

    War supporters would love to put Trump in a straight jacket which prevents him from negotiating an end to the war.

    It’s Biden’s war… he owns it, lock, stock, and barrel. Don’t let him off the hook.

  10. N0N0

    January 13, 2025 at 12:22 pm

    The terms of a deal are everything.

    Ukraine will have to earn reasonable terms and then also develop the means to preserve that peace for the foreseeable future, because a weak Ukraine will simply provoke Russia to try again.

    In the end, that will probably require NATO to raise the costs to Russia substantially and also lower the stakes for Russia substantially. The Biden policy was to raise costs incrementally and keep the stakes really high. Trump can do better.

    In the meantime, there are ways to escalate that Russia dares not match. For example, the Baltic and the North Sea are ideal places to seize the ships and cargo of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet.

  11. The Voice of Reason

    January 13, 2025 at 1:29 pm

    If doddering Biden could avoid WW3 in Ukraine, certainly Trump will.

    And that means Ukraine is going to lose.

    As to this article, its a fairly simplistic attempt to move the perception of the minimal acceptable agreement.

    The only interesting thing about the article is whether or not Bolton is more naive or more duplicitous in writing it.

    If duplicitous, he is shooting himself in the foot. Vladimir Putin agrees with him-he wants to keep fighting!

    If naive it is far more interesting. In the age of social media we will have reached a point where the public is actually better informed than so called experts because the art of disinformation within government has gotten so advanced that almost none of its most influential have any idea what is happening in the real world.

    In this Bolton would be even less knowledgeable about his own government and the state of its mission than 1980s era members of the Soviet elite.

    The CIA and FBI will have caught up and overtaken the Soviet Union on this point. Ironically, at last full spectrum dominance has truly been achieved.

  12. William

    January 13, 2025 at 2:18 pm

    The neoncons decided after Sept 11 it would be wide to take out enemies first.
    We helped throw a coup in the Ukraine and started military aid in 2009. If another country did that to one of our neighbors we would also have attacked, as did russia.
    We found out somewhat recently that Russia claims of natzees in the ukrain was true (avoz militia) and we knew about the since 2012 which was the first time America threatened to cut off military aid if the Ukraine didn’t solve its natzee issue (they didn’t and in fact America reconstituted the destroyed in combat avoz brigade – showing that America not only knew about the natzee issue but was ok with it and supporting it.

    The money we have wasted in the Ukraine could have rebuilt our own military and secured the Pacific vs china. Instead we borrowed the money and then wasted it.

    The Ukraine are not our allies, they are the most corrupt nation in europe, and franklu not my problem. I’m an American and I support America and idgaf about the Ukraine. Period.

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