Key Points and Summary: In a bold show of force, the U.S., Japan, and Australia have deployed their F-35 fighter jets for Cope North 2025, a high-stakes military exercise around Guam. The drill aims to improve interoperability among allied nations, countering China’s growing aggression in the Indo-Pacific.
-With the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command warning of a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan, these exercises serve as a direct deterrent to Beijing’s ambitions.
-The presence of three aircraft carriers in the region further reinforces allied strength, sending a clear message to China. But with rising tensions, could a miscalculation ignite a real conflict?
China on Edge: U.S., Japan, and Australia Launch F-35 Fighter Drills
Multinational military exercises in the Indo-Pacific are designed to blunt regional Chinese power.
The United States needs to rehearse actions with weapons systems that are shared among its allies, which means practicing together successfully.
The latest drills are happening in the United States, Australia, and Japan around Guam, and these air forces are flying stealth fighter jets.
This trilateral training event is known as Cope North 2025, featuring four F-35s from the three nations.
What Is ‘Fighter Plane Diplomacy?’
Cope North started on February 3 and will continue until February 21. The idea is to promote interoperability with F-35 fighters that do not fly together often.
The United States has executed what I call “fighter plane diplomacy” that features exports of the F-35 to several allies around the world.
However, if the Joint Strike Fighter is going to be a true multinational asset, the countries need to fly the F-35 together during war games designed to evaluate performance.
When Lockheed Martin created the F-35, the United States figured that it would have some success on the export market.
Still, it never envisioned so many countries would be interested in buying the stealth fighter by 2025.
The F-35 Is Dedicated to Realistic Combat Training
As more air forces worldwide cemented deals for the F-35, the Department of Defense realized this would be a good way to promote multinational military activity based on training events that encouraged unity and shared power.
So, the F-35 is symbolic of increasing defense ties worldwide led by the United States.
“Exercise [Cope North 2025] aims to further integrate ally and partner capabilities towards enhancing security and stability to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific,” the Pentagon press materials said. “The U.S. Pacific Air Forces said the drill was dedicated to realistic combat training.”
The F-35 is not only a tactical jet but also a strategic asset as more countries get on board and learn the ins and outs of flying multinational missions.
The “flying computer” is complex and powerful and pilots from different countries need to perform together to test various systems and flight maneuvers.
Royal Australian Air Force Contingent Commander Group Captain Darryl Porter said in a news release, “Bringing our F-35s and workforces together allows us to build on relationships and share practices, which will increase our interoperability with each other.”
Beyond F-35 Fighters: Guam Is a Critical Flashpoint Location
Cope North has been a training mainstay for decades, but now the stakes are high with a revanchist and aggressive China that claims the territory in the “First Island Chain” as its own. Beijing knows that Guam is a decisive point in the “Second Island Chain” if a shooting war with the United States and China flares up in that strategic location.
Guam is 1,500 miles east of the Philippines. Another multinational aircraft carrier exercise is taking place now near the Philippines. This is certainly designed for the Chinese to deal with the eventuality that the United States and its allies could wage war in different locations in the East and South China Sea, plus the Philippine Sea, at once.
That’s not good news for Beijing as Xi Jinping looks for ways to flex Chinese military muscle in its neighborhood. China is not used to U.S. allies working with such advanced military hardware as carriers and stealth jets.
‘Great Basin Of Allies’ Blunts Chinese Power
South Korea, Japan, Australia, the Philippines, and other countries form what I call the “Great Basin of Allies” in the First Island Chain that can work together to make sure the Chinese do not get too powerful in the region.
China has three aircraft carriers operating in East Asia, and the United States and its allies know that interoperability and multinational task forces will be important in the future. That means more rehearsals and practice are needed to improve tactics, techniques, and procedures.
China will likely react to these two military exercises involving aircraft carriers and F-35s. Xi often has his admirals direct their ships to harass the Philippines, and he instructs his generals to make weekly air force flights toward Taiwan.
One problem with all military drills is that there is always the possibility of an accident or miscalculation that could result in real weapons being fired. Both sides need to make sure this doesn’t happen.
China could use a training incident or accident as the impetus to enact an actual attack against Taipei. Numerous vessels are operating in the region. If this would result in, say, a collision of American and Chinese ships, Beijing could use that as an excuse to blockade or attack Taiwan. There was even a collision near Egypt on February 12 between the USS Harry S. Truman and a merchant ship that resulted in no casualties, but this shows that accidents can happen with large vessels.
Indo-Pacific Commander Is Concerned That China Could Take Taiwan
American military leadership is convinced that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could be imminent, the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said on February 13. The Chinese government is “on a dangerous course,” and its military’s “aggressive maneuvers around Taiwan right now are not exercises, as they call them. They are rehearsals,” U.S. Indo-Pacific Command leader Admiral Sam Paparo said.
With the multinational exercises near Guam and the Philippines, the United States and its allies are showing they can conduct operations in two locations at once in East Asia. China is getting the message loud and clear and will likely claim that the countries are bullying it because of its designs on Taiwan.
Let’s hope China, the United States, and its allies have cool heads during these exercises. Accidents could happen, and the possibility of a shooting war would be disastrous for all countries involved in these military drills.
F-35 Photo Essay
The active duty 388th and Reserve 419th Fighter Wings conducted an F-35A Combat Power Exercise with 52 aircraft at Hill AFB, Utah, Jan. 6, 2020. 388th Fighter Wing photo via Facebook.
F-35. Image Credit: Lockheed Martin.
PHILIPPINE SEA (Feb. 9, 2022) An F-35B Lightning II fighter aircraft from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) launches from the forward-deployed amphibious assault ship USS America (LHA 6) during joint Exercise Noble Fusion. Noble Fusion demonstrates that Navy and Marine Corps forward-deployed stand-in naval expeditionary forces can rapidly aggregate Marine Expeditionary Unit/Amphibious Ready Group teams at sea, along with a carrier strike group, as well as other joint force elements and allies, in order to conduct lethal sea-denial operations, seize key maritime terrain, guarantee freedom of movement, and create advantage for US, partner and allied forces. Naval Expeditionary forces conduct training throughout the year, in the Indo-Pacific, to maintain readiness. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Thomas B. Contant) 220209-N-BX791-1299
F-35 Lightning II aircraft receive fuel from a KC-10 Extender from Travis Air Force Base, Calif., July 13, 2015, during a flight from England to the U.S. The fighters were returning to Luke AFB, Ariz., after participating in the world’s largest air show, the Royal International Air Tattoo. (U.S. Air Force photo/Staff Sgt. Madelyn Brown)
F-35
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
