Donald Trump’s Tariff War Isn’t Over Just Yet

President Donald Trump’s unexpected decision to temporarily suspend tariffs related to the automobile manufacturing sector has not only amplified uncertainty in global financial markets, it has also heightened uncertainty with respect to his broader trade strategy. 

The announcement, made during a White House press conference on March 5, 2025, is being optimistically interpreted in some circles as the first step in a broader recalibration of Trump’s trade and tariff strategy. But as the author and poet Allan Wolf once famously put it, “Man’s fatal flaw is misplaced optimism.”

 The more clear-eyed take on this temporary and sector-specific suspension of tariffs is that it is less a strategic reorientation heralding an imminent end to Trump’s trade war than a tactical pause in a war that is far from over.

The White House’s message in this regard is both clear and bold: the ultimate objective of the tariff war is to reduce American reliance on foreign manufacturing and bring jobs – automotive first, but by no means exclusively – back to the United States. 

While the moratorium offers temporary relief to North American firms in the automotive sector, the underlying expectation hasn’t changed. And what is that expectation? That the automotive industry rapidly and totally “onshore” to the United States. 

This tactical moratorium thus serves multiple purposes: sparing U.S. firms the short-term loss of jobs and profits that tariffs would doubtless have precipitated; encouraging domestic automotive firms to create exclusively American supply chains; and signaling to international trace partners that any tariff relief granted by Trump in the short term is conditional on those partners enacting trade policies that align with American economic and strategic interests.

In the short term, the decision to suspend tariffs was a response to industry leaders in the U.S. making clear to the administration the extent of the economic fallout they anticipated if the tariffs were applied. The U.S. and Canadian automotive industries are not merely interconnected—they are deeply integrated, functioning as a single industrial ecosystem.

 Parts and vehicles often cross the border multiple times during the production process and even minor disruptions in this process could have catastrophic economic consequences. Simply put, imposing tariffs on Canadian-made vehicles and automotive parts would not only negatively impact the Canadian economy but also inflict severe harm on American manufacturers that rely on Canadian components, labor, and assembly lines. 

By declaring this reprieve, Trump has averted significant job losses, supply chain chaos, and a hit to the defense industrial base, where automotive manufacturing plays a crucial role. But only in the short run.

The defense implications of this reprieve cannot be overstated. The automotive industry contributes significantly to the defense industry, with many components having dual-use civilian and military applications.

 Preserving the integrated defense supply chain between the U.S. and Canada is therefore not simply an economic matter, but a matter of national security as well. Any disruption in this supply chain could seriously undermine defense preparedness at a time when great power competition, particularly in the Arctic, is on the rise. The administration’s temporary tariff reprieve is thus likely as much about strategic prudence as it is about economic pragmatism.

In the longer term, however, the Trump administration’s goals are clear. The reprieve is not an invitation for automakers to maintain the status quo; rather it is a brief hiatus in the push for a total onshoring of manufacturing to the United States. 

Trump’s broader trade strategy has always been about deploying tariffs as both a carrot and stick – penalizing companies that he claims export jobs while rewarding those that invest in domestic manufacturing. The temporary nature of this tariff relief underscores a simple truth: automakers have been put on notice. They must demonstrate an earnest commitment to onshoring jobs and domesticating their supply chains, or they risk incurring the wrath of Trump.

Financial markets have responded with predictable volatility. Before the reprieve, major indices in the U.S. and abroad experienced significant downturns, with auto stocks and related industries particularly hard hit. The announcement of a reprieve brought a modest rebound, reflecting once again a potentially misplaced optimism. 

However, this temporary relief has not alleviated the broader uncertainties surrounding the administration’s approach to trade policy. Market participants, much like the automakers themselves, understand that this reprieve is a tactical maneuver, not a strategic pivot.

Critics of the moratorium argue that this sectoral-specific relief could set a dangerous precedent, potentially inviting demands from other industries not benefiting from this reprieve. The sector-specific nature of the moratorium might also erode the administration’s leverage in broader trade negotiations, especially if trading partners interpret this as a sign of wavering resolve on the part of the Trump administration. 

Finally, there is an understandable concern that automakers might take advantage of this relief without making meaningful moves toward onshoring production.

Ultimately, the moratorium on automotive industry tariffs is more than a politically pragmatic response to the immediate economic concerns of a U.S. manufacturing sector that is deeply integrated with its North American counterparts. It is a calculated measure intended to buy time for automakers to demonstrate their willingness to comply with the administration’s demands that it onshore production.

The White House’s message is clear: this temporary relief is not an end in itself but a tactical move in a broader strategic campaign. Whether that campaign is successful depends on whether automakers take concrete steps to bring jobs and manufacturing back to American soil. 

President of the United States Donald Trump speaking at the 2018 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland.

As Allan Wolf cautioned, man’s fatal flaw is misplaced optimism. The ultimate question in this case is whether it is the automotive industry or the Trump administration that is suffering this fatal flaw.

About the Author: Dr. Andrew Latham 

Andrew Latham is a non-resident fellow at Defense Priorities and a professor of international relations and political theory at Macalester College in Saint Paul, MN. Andrew is now a Contributing Editor to 19FortyFive, where he writes a daily column. You can follow him on X: @aakatham.