Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s disastrous Oval Office meeting with President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance marks an inflection point for international security in the post-World War II era.
An Oval Office Meeting That Changed NATO Forever
Ukraine will continue to fight with or without support. After all, ideology and not grievance motivates Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader simply rejects Ukraine’s right to exist as an independent nation or culture. Ukrainians are not the sort of people who will willingly march to their own annihilation.
The reason why the meeting was so consequential is because of what it suggests about the future of NATO. Trump’s declaration of moral equivalency and his and JD Vance’s refusal to acknowledge the clear-cut aggression Ukraine weathered raise questions about whether they would rationalize and dismiss aggression against NATO members.
Article V of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty, NATO’s foundational document, declared, “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs.” But Article V is not as cut-and-dry as many NATO supporters believe for two reasons.
First, the Article only calls on the alliance to take “such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.” What is necessary for security is open to interpretation. Consider Trump’s logic: While Ukraine is not a NATO member, the president made his position clear to Zelensky and the assembled press. “You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people. You’re gambling with World War Three. You’re gambling with World War Three, and what you’re doing is very disrespectful to the country,” he shouted.
Trump also grounded his moral equivalency in practicalities. “If I didn’t align myself with both of them, you’d never have a deal…. You see, the hatred he’s [Zelensky] got for Putin, it’s very tough for me to make a deal with that kind of hate. He’s got tremendous hatred, and I understand that, but I can tell you the other side is not exactly in love with him either… I want to see if we can get this thing done. You want me to be tough? I could be tougher than any human being you’ve ever seen. I’d be so tough, but you’re never going to get a deal that way. So that’s the way it goes.”
Put another way, if security means standing down to reach an agreement, so be it.
The second problem with Article V is the consensus that governs NATO. For 35 years, many within NATO saw its expansion as an inherent good. There was something to their logic: If countries became shareholders in a common alliance, they would have no ability to fight each other. The problem always has been the consensus at the heart NATO’s governance. It was tough enough to get full agreement when NATO had 12 members; with 32, it can be near impossible.
Now, if Montenegro or other window-dressing countries raise objections, other NATO countries might run roughshod over it. After all, a country of 620,000 like Montenegro simply does not compare to a country like the United States that has a population of 340 million.
If Washington blocks consensus, however, it’s a whole different ballgame.
RIP, NATO: What Happens Next?
What this means in practice is NATO is dead, even if it does not realize it yet. If Russian forces moved into Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the United States would do exactly nothing. Germany might bluster but an emphasis on soft-power—even in combat zones like Afghanistan—long ago eroded its military prowess.
Germany’s military is today better at declarations than defense and memo rather than mortars. How to profit rather than rebuff invasion would motivate President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey. Poland would fight, and perhaps France too, but neither would risk nuclear war, especially should Putin threaten Polish bases with tactical nuclear weapons.
Putin likely realizes the time is now for him to reclaim what he believes to be Russia’s inherent right to the former Soviet borders. Its Asian components can wait for the time being; opportunities like Trump provides do not come often. The Baltic states are his for picking.
The question now is whether Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose service to Trump’s agenda undermines everything for which he has hitherto stood will betray the Baltic and get scores of Americans killed when Russians forces enter, or whether he will order embassy evacuations now.
Donald Trump speaking at the 2015 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland.
Likewise, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has a choice: A non-combatant evacuation now, or a far more intractable problem with Americans stranded behind enemy lines later.
About the Author: Dr. Michael Rubin
Dr. Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. He is also a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor. The views expressed in this opinion piece are the author’s own.
Wilhelm Frost
March 1, 2025 at 8:46 pm
NATO isn’t dead . . . nor should it die.
But Canada and Europe’s free riding needs to end.
Back up your tough talk with real money, real capabilities, and real courage.
Donnie Young
March 1, 2025 at 9:48 pm
You and Ukraine can both burn in hell. We the American people are sick and tired of handing over our MONEY to a crowd of thieves in Ukraine. No Ukraine, No NATO, No Europe.
Verissimo
March 1, 2025 at 10:12 pm
Idealistic but empty moralizing from European officialdom, adolescent hero-worship from pundits and the international press, and a lack of firmness from the Biden administration deceived Zelensky and spoiled him.
It deceived Zelensky about how much the American and European peoples were prepared to risk, sacrifice, and do to help Ukraine reconquer its lost territory. It deceived Zelensky about how willing the American and European peoples were to grant Ukraine explicit security guarantees.
It also spoiled Zelensky. It deluded him into thinking he could use a press conference at the Oval Office to get an explicit security guarantee from Trump and the US. An unspoiled and undeluded person would’ve judged it impossible. . . and contented himself with as much as he could get, knowing that the future would offer Ukraine opportunities to better its situation.
Hence, bad information and bad advice led to Zelensky’s blunder.
Zelensky or his advisors didn’t see how the minerals deal immediately strengthened the US political commitment to Ukraine. There were Ukraine War skeptics, to include the vitally important President of the United States, whose tune changed immediately when the flow of military aid to Ukraine turned into a secured loan.
It wasn’t the explicit security guarantee that Ukraine wanted but it turned a soft pro-Ukraine majority for continued military aid into a solid super-majority for it. That’s not a treaty but this kind of popular, bi-partisan pro-Ukraine sentiment is priceless. Zelensky just risked losing that for something he should’ve known he could not get.
He and Trump each have strong reasons for getting past this . . . but Zelensky’s are far, far stronger. As time passes, Zelensky’s reasons will become far more acute.
He’s fortunate to be in a position to fix things but time is running out.
Jim
March 1, 2025 at 10:54 pm
Everybody knows Nato expansion was the reason for the war, something called for back as early as 2008 by George Bush Jr. And, here, recently Jens Stoltenberg, former Secretary General of NATO stated publicly when he was still Sec. Gen. of Nato, that, indeed, Nato expansion was the reason for the war (I saw the video).
Of course, the Russians have said this all along, and have vigorously objected many times that Nato membership was unacceptable for Ukraine and Putin stated such as a reason for the invasion in his speech justifying his decision.
So, the author wants Ukraine to fight to the last Ukrainian. What’s the logic of that? How does it help anybody?
Nato is not dead, quite the contrary, it can survive & thrive if it’s strictly a defensive alliance, as it was originally designed to be. The U. S. took it in an offensive direction when the U. S. used Nato bases to launch its attack to break up Yugoslavia, and has been offensive ever since… with this proxy war as its apogee of offensive action… attempting to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia. Interestingly, by suffocating sanctions, rather than the proxy war, itself. In any event, it didn’t work as planned.
The best way to move forward after this failure is to get Nato back to being a truly defensive alliance.
Of course, now, in the heat of the emotion, many want to go on and on over a failed policy… and make it sound as if the sky is falling… it’s not.
Get over it.
The-Waiting-Ones
March 2, 2025 at 12:31 am
NATO ain’t dead but the massive proto-fascist organization has been given a severe jolt.
How.
The original cause was the effort or efforts by Joe Biden and lackeys desiring to execute regime change in Russia.
That was made through the expansion of NATO itself as well as ongoing shady work done in various places, like in eastern Europe, Africa and middle east to destabilize local governments regarded as non-compliant or non-friendly especially those thought to be pro-moscow.
But along came the disastrous misadventures in Ukraine and gaza and the subsequent change in the ownership of the US White House oval office.
The new president decided that some euro members of NATO were taking uncle Sam for a ride and also all along the EU was busily screwing the US.
Especially the darling of the top euro members, zelenskyy.
Zelenskyy came across as a petulant not-grownup kid always demanding this and that and also wanting NATO pre-emptive strikes on Russia’s nuke arsenal.
BUT ZELENSKYY CAME A CROPPER ON 28 FEB 2025. He was unceremoniously kicked out of the meeting at the white house after trying to lecture the US on public tv.
Hell to EU, to zelenskyy and brussels.
mihai
March 2, 2025 at 2:21 am
Nato is not dead and I think it will never be, simply because is a huge market for american weapons.To whom you will sell your weapons? To China, Russia, Iran, N.Korea? Imagine all your european allies renounce at F35.Those workers in USA will be FIRED! A dear word of your President Krasnov!
Swamplaw Yankee
March 2, 2025 at 2:22 am
OHH Boy. Rubin is correct but still missis the whole bullseye. Why?
Well, that is directly why Rubin requests a peer review. Let’s ad rem.
The lead Rubin uses is Ukraine, I speculate because the Yankee denizens slumbering deep in the Aquarium’s ceramic castle had a whiff of reality. Many of Rubin’s articles on Yankee incompetence in the middle east, etc., generate near zero attention from Western MSM. (WMSM)
What is an inflection point in Yankeeland? I speculate that these inflections emit regularly inside the inner beltway, like lava gas from a volcano.
The article has little punch. While correct platitudes erupt regularly, why the lack of punch. Well, Rubin traps himself inside the Aquarium. As a pretend Yankee, his view outside the opaque slime green glass is accurate deduction wise, but sparse, geared to the local yokal readership demand.
For example, the performance of the DNI over the last 60 years seems mysteriously absent as a topic. For example. Why did the DNI not warn the WMSM of the coming 2022 attack by the orc muscovite elite forces? Why did the DNI not clearly indicate that the 2014 attack was imminent?
Collaterally, which intelligence force of the EU, Canada, UK, etc., did issue warnings and of what quality? These topics, their morphology, if circulated, would interest the hoi poloi of the WEST. I place my bet there.
“declarations rather than defence, memos rather than mortars”, is great lit. But, most articles here are from fellows, academics, military, defence or/and intelligence hacks who are experts on Ukraine, but know zip about Ukraine. I speculate, they do know zip, not more, as they need to actually be genetically Ukrainian.
Then, they would know that Ukraine existed way, way before the USA was created 250 years ago. Rubin can not reference properly, as the events of before, do not appear in his Ukrainian analysis stack.
They could look at their family tree. Missing: Huge numbers of ancestors butchered by orc muscovites over the last 2000 years.
Why refuse to mention the super lucrative slave sex trade kidnapping of Ukrainian Children by orc Russians over the last 2000 years?
Why refuse to mention the huge genocide of 20 million Ukrainians, families, starved + whose assets were seized by the orc Russian population? Who can forget the images of orc tanks loaded with washing machines for transport back home in saint petersburg?
Why refuse to mention the return to slave sex trade in 2014 by Putin, a move that the whole Russian population was genetically wired to support? Stealing land from Ukrainians boasted Putin’s popularity with every muscovite orc. Their ancient Russian genetic trait was activated and the polls of orcs show the 2014 popularity jump for Putin.
Rubin hits it on the Nineveh Plains frequently, but seems unable to focus on the much larger geography of Ukraine.
What the WEST needs is the immediate return of 100% of illegally occupied ancient Ukrainian Land. The prompt return to pre 2014 geopolitical balance that favours the WEST in the middle east! If the chief magistrate of the USA wishes to abdicate the WEST’s most critical throne position, then, geopolitically, he slits his own historic throat. Remember, the WEST promised huge aid to Constantinople, to arrive exactly one day after the Muslims slit all the Christian throats in that citadel. The fall of the Christian Byzantine empire vibrates strong geostrategy in the middle east today.
The initiation of the fall of Ukraine, therefore the WEST, unilaterally started in 2014 by the traitorous USA’s free, no-cost covert gift to the cold war enemy of the WEST should be a clear betrayal visible to Yankee Ruben, et al. -30-
pagar
March 2, 2025 at 2:27 am
What was the most important thing trump said to zelenskyy that almost all global media outlets are ignoring.
Trump said: Your country’s in big trouble.
You are NOT winning.
You still have a good chance of coming out OK if you just stick with us.
But zelenskyy was pigheaded.
So are the ‘global’ media.
And NATO bosses in europe.
securocrat
March 2, 2025 at 3:22 am
International Security can’t exist at all if NATO continues to expand….which biden wanted.
That’s because NATO is not under the aegis of the United Nations at all.
It’s exactly similar to expansion of ISIS (islamic state). Not under UN.
To solve the problem, NATO needs to be downsized if it’s unwilling to come under the thumb of the UN sec-general.
NATO could be split into two.
One part consisting of canada, US, mexico and panama.
The other consisting of proto-fascist euro powers like france, germany and Ukraine.
Will the latter eventually get involved into a direct clash with russia. Possible.
Very highly possible, due to the very feverishly high russophobia so inherent in europe.
It’s then up to russia to increase its nuclear arsenal if it wants to be safe.
Remember,: IT’S FEAR THAT GUARDS THE VINEYARD.
Jim
March 2, 2025 at 10:57 am
… the toys are flying out of the pram… “Wa, Wa, Ukraine failed… Wa, Wa, Nato is dead, Wa, Wa, fight to the last Ukrainian, Wa, Wa, Europe should start learning Russian, Wa, Wa, everything we’ve ever done is lost and ruined, Wa, Wa, that bad, mean Mr. Trump took away my favorite action figure, G.I. Joe. Wa, Wa.”
… you know, sometimes, when little Johnny gets tired & cranky… he’ll have a tantrum… especially when Mommy takes away a toy… you just have to let him cry it out… he’ll eventually quiet down… sometimes it takes a long time… strong lungs that kid of yours got. I know… the joys of parenthood.
This is the reaction when warhawks don’t get their way.
Which provides a compelling insight to their mentality… it’s really all about themselves, and their egos… which are easily cracked because they’re like spoiled little children, when their parents insist they put their toy soldiers away and go to bed.
Sorry, we’re not into your forever war.
We’re not into your failure.
Swamplaw Yankee
March 3, 2025 at 9:19 am
The toys are now carried by military donkeys…. Wa, wa! The orc muscovite elite has failed…. Wa, wa! Enslaved ethnic nations refuse to become meat for the orc meat grinder…. Wa, wa! Siberian captives and those in the east start forgetting to speak Ruskey….. Wa, wa! Everything the orc muscovite elite has lied about is clearly exposed + ruined by the EU Marcon + Starmar. WA, WA! That means the Ruskey orc slave sex traders must return the kidnapped Ukrainian children and pay reparation, compensation and restitution to Ukraine from the deep pockets of every orc left in the rump land of Ruskey. Wa, wa!
You know Trump saw the photos of the sex molested POW’s. Wa,wa! BUT Trump just can not voice out clearly that his ole buddy Putin must return each kidnapped child asap with $10 million in gold bullion. That means Trump gave away, abdicated any idea of leadership of the WEST. Trump still seems afraid of the red line Putin has drawn down his ——! Especially tragic when millions of Russian mothers, grandmothers have to weep for lost, crippled kids, victims of Putin’s ancient inner needs to steal ancient Ukrainian soil and children.
That’s a compelling insight into the money making industry that great grandpa ruskey did twice a year with the Muslims inside Crimean fort Kaffe! Wa, wa. Bad European leaders of today just do not, cannot, understand the grand ancient old genetic needs of ole Ruskey! Wa, wa! -30-
Jim
March 3, 2025 at 10:17 am
Okay, I engaged in an exercise in hyperbolic exaggeration for the purposes of political illustration (hopefully, with a sense of humor). Perhaps, I was too tough… it’s designed to “break something loose” in the minds of those who have a vision of winning and can’t let go of that vision.
But seriously, if you want “victory” what can be done, short of risking a General European War? And, I’m talking a realistic approach… and, not a “dragging it out as long as possible” approach which leads nowhere.
What does victory look like? Is it realistic?
And, whatever the approach, if it fails, doesn’t that make it even more likely Nato will die as a result of the failed endeavor… the fallout over the failure would be real enough. Do we risk all of Europe to avoid failure in Ukraine?
This is the point… being realistic, not exaggeration is what we need right now.
Mature reflection on the situation as it is, not as we would like it to be.
The World doesn’t work like that.
Quartermaster
March 3, 2025 at 5:16 pm
“Everybody knows NATO expansion was the reason for the war”
No, everybody does not know that. What is known is Putin’s actual reason for taking Ukraine away from her people – imperialism. The author is exactly correct on that count. NATO is just an excuse.
It is sad to see the number of Putin tools on this website. Such people are bringing down Gateway Pundit, and other sites that have turned their backs on what they were are going down the same path.
Pushing Putin’s case of lies will have a serious impact on the US position in the world. Festung Amerika is not workable, and ignoring the world will not make it go away. Russia, China, and others are after the destruction of the US. When the weakness Trump and Vance are telegraphing reaches the point where it can’t defend herself, then the US will go to its destruction alone and unlamented.
Trusting Putin is worse than a fool’s errand.
Swamplaw Yankee
March 4, 2025 at 9:05 am
Hyperbolic exaggeration is one technique. But, addiction is a key. The Trumpie seems focussed on one addiction: drugs, such as fentanyl. But, the addition of gambling, a non-drug, might be useful to also kick about.
“Break something loose” in the minds of those who have visions of winning + can’t let go of that vision.
Describes many groups such as one example: the early Yankees. Addicted to real estate gain, the various provinces of England, freaked right out when this “free” real estate gain was “stolen from” them by that far away King George 3. How dare that foreign English tyrant give land that was just stolen from the original French to the ancient original owners: his good allies, the aboriginals. Now, the MSM blab seems about some tea boxes in Boston.
Remember the inner joy Washington himself had in plugging French Government troops and not being charged by Yankee Justice.
The orc muscovite elite is long, long addicted. Perhaps some tiny percentage of the ethnic Russian is not, but as long as plunder and booty are offered to them, which Russian wants to examine their quiet ancient Russian addiction to plunder.
This is where Journalists in Yankee like Rubin fail. Yeah, He hits parts of the bullseye. Because he operates/lives inside the Yankee aquarium, his inner “fear” prevents any “significant” examination of Yankee addictions. Those parts of the bullseye always remain unhit by Rubin, et al.
Seriously, well a good question coming from that active operative. But, the Victory Vision for orc Putin, et al, is the addiction that has cost millions of lost lives. A genetic trait of old that manifests itself in the ethnic Russian.
The Yankee is unwilling, therefore, unable to understand this genetic trait of old. The Yankee did not exist even as a concept when the orc muscovite elite income industry of butchering and kidnapping neighbouring ethnic groups was an established national trade. Stealing technology from the West allowed the muscovite the edge to conquer + destroy at will.
Blab from any Yankee about NATO or WW2 is just filler. The yellooo belliiee shown from March 1939, 1940 + 1941 is never spoken about.
Gambling seems like religion. Some claim to have broken loose and suddenly believe the Koran and the need to kill all faithful Jews.
One can examine the nation that is larger than western Europe: Tibet. What did Tibetans do in WW2: zip all. Even Stalin gambled that doing a tradition Russian genocide on Ukrainians in 1932-33 would keep the average Russian plunderer happy with looting + butchery. Stalin refused the gamble to take over Tibet: Why?
These ancient Tibetans begged the Yankee, right after the British empire refused, to help them stay independent.
The Yankee Vision, “broke loose”. Roosevelt, via the State DEPARTMENT Hiss, signed over all the defeated Japanese Army hardware to the Commie Mao. Commie Stalin was overjoyed at the work of State Department’s Hiss! This betrayal of the majority Han by the Yankee allowed miniscule Mao to butcher off all non-commie Han. Visiting Commie Stalin, Mao was pointed to the Vision of the orc muscovite elite: Butcher the ethnics around you.
Mao immediately typed out orders to butcher the Tibetans. The Han commie started the butchery. The Yankee was begged by the Dalai Lama himself to save his ancient soil, his religion, his faithful people. The Yankee refused recognition and help for long years. Ole Yellooo Belliiie was out and about with his vision of Commie Love. Today, they whine, we sent Tibet a few modern machine guns. The world heard the Yellooo Belliiiee whine last week, again: We sent a few effective Javelin missiles to those ungrateful Ukrainians so as to knock off 20,ooo plus muscovite tanks, 30,000 muscovite mobile canons, etc.
Today, Ole Yelloooo Belliiiie is whining that Yankee has to abandon the Ukraine so that the inner beltway aquarium can fiddle with their own personal invention: the 1949 Han communist vision.
The Yankee did zip in 1950 to 1959 to save the Tibetan independence. The Yankee had the Atomic Bomb. The Yankee Vision to fuck independence elsewhere was played out slowly on the Buddhist faithful of Tibet. The DNI + CIA was able to suppress any inner voices of reality. To this day, they squeal that they knew nothing of Tibet till after they dropped the atomic bombs of WW2.
Today, the Yankee MSM whine at a high pitch that their Han invention of 1945 is out to grab their children. Well, do you hear any Yankee MSM whine when Stalin’s Vision grabbed the all the children of the independent nation of Western Ukraine in 1944? This country was in the League of Nations, then poof, the Yankee Vision was that it magically vanished.
Victory can not “break loose” in the Yankee Vision. That is the hypothesis. The inner beltway addicts worship their own Potemkin Village Painted panels of how the inner beltway fantasize the reality of Ukraine.
That the Canadian Vision of Ukraine exists, is public + is so very different means nothing to the Potemkin Village Yankee + their MSM.
MAGA elite refuse to educate the MAGA follower why neighbour Canada vigorously funds Ukraine. The Canada that died to save their Yellooo Belliiie in 1939, 1940 + 1941.
The Yankee did zip when millions of Ukrainians were seized for slave work in Siberia to dig out captive nation Uranium, process it and die from exposure to such exposure. Then process the deadly ore on Ukrainian soil so as to contaminate Ukraine. The Yankee sent his ore to the Lake Ontario Ordinance site, where it smolders + leaks radioactively to this moment.
Now, the Yankee must demand a Victory for the WEST Vision. Can the Yankee chief magistrate use clear speech to mouth that demand of Victory for the WEST, return of 100% of illegally seized ancient Ukrainian soil.
Shakespeare can find material in these Vision conflicts. The exiled Tibetan Buddhist Monks argued vigorously with Bin Ladin operatives who set up their North American HQ steps from their Buddhist temple. All victims of the Vision from the depth of the slime glassed Aquarium of the inner beltway. As the DNI snored soundly, these groups debated and the 9-11 Vision of the Gog rolled to a successful completion. Is there some cosmic irony that I sense. -30-