Air capabilities are about more than just fleet numbers. Just as important are the makeup of the fleet, the quality of pilots’ training, and, crucially, logistical support to keep fighters fueled, armed, and in the fight.
Given recent advances in fighter and bomber development—notably, in the case of China, with the unofficial unveiling of the H-20 and the J-35—the question arises: Is the United States’ fighter fleet in hardy enough condition to meet the challenge posed by recent advances elsewhere?
Furthermore, is the American fighter fleet sufficient to fight—and win—a war against not just one peer adversary, but two? The answer is complex, but a breakdown of the most important factors offers a sense of where the U.S. fleet is at the moment, and where it could go in the future.
The United States has arguably the most advanced fighters in the world, to include the F-22 Raptor air-superiority fighter and the multirole F-35 Lightning II, both fifth-generation stealth fighters.
Further, U.S. fourth-generation fighters like the F-15EX, as well as the latest F-16 variants, are among the most advanced and capable fighters of their kind flying today.
This varied group of fighters contribute networked capabilities, thanks to their advanced sensor and avionics suites, giving them the ability to achieve air superiority even in contested environments.
Beyond numbers and the planes’ attributes, the overall capability of the American fighter fleet is contingent on the training of pilots, as well as their interoperability with other U.S. military branches and allied air forces.
Taken together, superior training and the expansion of logistics support offered by allies make up for any merely numerical disparity that could exist in combat against adversaries.
Part of the modern American air approach is leveraging multi-domain operations; that is, the integration of electronic warfare, air, cyber, and space assets to maximize the potential of the individual pilot.
Additionally, fighter jets are just one piece of a broader puzzle that includes intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets, as well as the long-range strike capabilities brought by a fearsome bomber fleet.
The Threats from Adversaries
China, and to a lesser extent Russia, are modernizing their fighter fleets in addition to their air-defense systems. In China’s case, the ongoing development and testing of advanced platforms like the J-20 and J-35 stealth fighters, as well as the H-20 stealthy strategic bomber, are reasons for concern for the United States.
A peer-level conflict against China would pose a significant tactical and technological challenge to the U.S. Air Force.
As evidenced by the ongoing war in Ukraine, the operational environment of a war against China and/or Russia would be extremely contested. Air defenses, as well as anti-access/area denial hardware, would make attrition of American aircraft a near certainty and would adversely affect the number of fighters that could be deployed over time.
Still, deterrence is one of the central pillars of American defense planning. That is to say, if the costs of a conflict outweigh the benefits, then starting a conflict would not be in an adversary’s interest.
Hence the investments that the United States has poured into fighter technology: The F-35 program is the most expensive defense project in history. These investments are as much about preventing a war as they are about winning one.
What Now for the U.S. Air Force Fighters?
An analysis of the American fighter fleet is no mean feat. Given the amount of variables in the equation, numerical analysis is not enough to determine success or defeat in a hypothetical conflict.
What is more clear, however, is that the U.S. fighter force is explicitly designed to win high-end operations in a variety of theaters against peer rivals thanks to superior technology—particularly fifth-generation stealth capabilities, but also those of superior U.S. fourth-generation aircraft—and through very effective pilot training tempered by real-world combat experience.
A large-scale conflict with China, Russia, or both would certainly pose a challenge. Warfare today on land, at sea, or in the air is a synthesis of deterrence, integration of capabilities across and within service branches, and technological superiority.
Though the U.S. Air Force today does hold an edge over rivals such as Russia and China, a conflict against both countries, spread over multiple theaters across the globe, would be tough to sustain, and the U.S. would be sure to absorb losses.
Though jets like the F-35 are the most-produced stealth fighters in history, a high amount of attrition should be expected, and fighters are neither cheap to build nor quick to enter service.
A resilient industrial base, and the aid of partners and allies in other parts of the globe, could be an insurance policy in a future war.
In the same vein, the sustainment of American fighters depends on reliable logistical lines that never fail to deliver spare parts, trained maintainers, fuel, and weapons.
Ensuring these aspects of fighter sustainment remain robust will be of utmost importance in the next war.
About the Author: Caleb Larson
Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.
