Summary and Key Points: The U.S. Air Force’s F-22 Raptor, once halted prematurely due to perceived irrelevance, now faces a troubling numbers shortage as global tensions escalate.
-Originally intended for Cold War-style air superiority, the Pentagon stopped production in 2011 at only 195 aircraft.
F-22 Raptor Image: YouTube Screenshot.
-Yet today, threats from China, Russia, and Iran highlight the urgent need for more Raptors to secure American interests worldwide.
-Despite planned Pentagon budget cuts under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, critics argue reducing manned stealth fighter capabilities in favor of drones risks strategic vulnerability. If war breaks out, the limited number of F-22s could prove insufficient in sustained conflict.
The F-22 Raptor Has a Numbers Problem
We often focus on future warfare scenarios at 19FortyFive, and our analysts are actively trying to figure out the US order of battle and the American force posture.
One aspect of US defense policy is the most advantageous number of significant end items like surface ships, submarines, stealth bombers, and fighter jets.
What is the level of military hardware that can win wars without breaking the bank? How will the upcoming budget cuts instigated by Secretary of Defense (SECDEF) Pete Hegseth affect the defense acquisition process? Can the United States procure enough platforms to win a war?
Let’s examine the F-22 program to see if these questions can be answered.
The history of the F-22 is an excellent case study.
Difficult Decision to Stop F-22 Raptor Fighters Production
One decision in 2009 during the reign of Defense Secretary Robert Gates was to curtail the number of F-22s. He decided to stop new deliveries of the stealth Raptors in 2009 because he figured the airplane served as Cold War-era air superiority.
The F-22 was a solution in search of a problem in his mind. Combat against the terrorists and insurgents in Afghanistan and Iraq required close air support. The F-22 was not meant for ground strikes to save soldiers and marines conducting land warfare.
Only about 195 F-22s were produced before the final halt to the program in 2011.
The US wanted to build hundreds more at one point. Was stopping production the correct decision? Now, the United States needs every F-22 that can be put into the sky.
The warbird deployed to East Asia last year to participate in Guam and South Korea military exercises.
Many Flashpoints Where the F-22 Would Be Useful
It would be nice to have more permanent F-22 squadrons in the Indo-Pacific. But that’s not the only region where they could be useful. What about Europe and the Middle East?
Russia is obviously a problem as the American side is feverishly working on a ceasefire, but even with a lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine, the United States still has its commitment to NATO, and that means stealth fighter jets are needed in Europe.
An F-22 Raptor from the 95th Fighter Squadron, Tyndall AFB, Florida, prepares to refuel mid-flight from a KC-135R Stratotanker from the 134th Air Refueling Wing, Tennessee.
The Middle East is a problem area with threats from Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah.
Israel has air superiority in the region, but the United States is having to deal with the pesky Iranian-backed Houthi militants who are making it difficult for the Navy in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
F-22s could boost US power projection in the Central Command area of operations.
New Broom Sweeps Clean With Different Strategy
SECDEF Hegseth has different ideas for US defense strategy and wishes to pull back some US commitments in Europe and the Middle East. He wants the Pentagon to focus on continental missile defense with an Iron Dome type of umbrella, Southern border patrolling, and Virginia-class submarines. He is calling to cut $50 billion from the FY26 defense budget.
Hegseth would likely argue that the F-22 is outdated and that the United States should build more uncrewed fighters and focus on additional battlefield drones for land warriors.
The F-22 Has Many Advantages
But the F-22 is one of the world’s most advanced, stealthy, and maneuverable dogfighters. Pilots love it, and even though some policymakers want them to retire in 2030 due to their difficult-to-update features and outdated capabilities, the airplane still has a place in modern warfare, according to its fans.
Is It Better to Have Human Pilots?
Great power conflict could turn the new defense priorities on their head without enough F-22s. What if Hegseth is wrong about drone fighter jets? US pilots are trained exceedingly well. Many have combat experience.
F-22 Raptors assigned to the 1st Fighter Wing, Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Va. arrives at Royal Air Force Lakenheath, England Oct. 5, 2018. The Raptors will train with U.S. allies and partners as a demonstration of U.S. commitment to European regional security. (U.S. Air Force photo/ Tech. Sgt. Matthew Plew)
They have a passion for flight and can communicate effectively with ground control. Plus, you can’t beat a human pilot who can Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act (OODA) better than a drone.
These pilots would argue that the military can’t have enough stealth fighters and that the United States should have built more. In warfare, the Air Force will need a high number of airplanes in the air at once.
There could be a situation during Day Three, Four, and Five days of combat with either Russia, Iran, North Korea, or China that the Americans could run out of fighters before enough could arrive in the theater.
Proponents of autonomous uncrewed fighters believe they can be made cheaper and are thus more expendable. The Air Force calls these Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA), and they have a future if manned fighters can control them. However, war is a human endeavor. It boils down to who has the best trained and most effective personnel.
My money is on the stealth fighters and their human pilots. There may not be enough manned fighters to fight an effective war, and while we wait for the CCAs to come online, human fighter pilots must answer the challenge.
A U.S. Air Force F-22A Raptor parked on the flightline at Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base, Romania, April 25, 2016. The aircraft will conduct air training with other Europe-based aircraft and will also forward deploy from England to maximize training opportunities while demonstrating the U.S. commitment to NATO allies and the security of Europe. The Raptors are deployed from the 95th Fighter Squadron, Tyndall Air Force Base, Florida. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Ryan Crane/Released)
Hegseth could be surprised that if combat ensues in a broader war, there may not be enough F-22s to fight a longer-term conflict.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
