Summary and Key Points: Former President Trump has consistently criticized NATO, viewing allies as financial freeloaders who rely too heavily on U.S. resources.
-If Trump withdrew the United States from NATO, the alliance would likely collapse, losing essential American capabilities such as intelligence, logistics, combat proficiency, and heavy weaponry. This would embolden adversaries like Russia, potentially triggering catastrophic geopolitical consequences.
-Despite Trump’s vocal threats, practical barriers such as congressional oversight and opposition from key officials like Secretary of State Marco Rubio make such a withdrawal unlikely.
-Ultimately, NATO remains vital for U.S. national security, making American withdrawal improbable despite Trump’s continued rhetoric.
Trump vs. NATO
Could Trump Pull the United States Out of NATO?: President Donald Trump has always conducted an unconventional foreign policy. Whether it is to take over and annex Canada or claim Greenland as another American state, the Commander-in-Chief is always threatening to do the unexpected in international relations.
This dates back to his first run for the White House in 2015 and 2016. For some reason that wasn’t entirely clear at first, Trump had it in for NATO from the very beginning and this shocked Europe.
Trump Believes NATO Members Are Mostly Freeloaders
He thought our alliance partners were not paying their “fair share” for U.S. protection. The former reality show star and billionaire had a point. The Pentagon had been trying to get all NATO members to pay at least two percent of their GDP on military spending for years. But this was at a time when many NATO countries were supporting the U.S. efforts during the war in Afghanistan. They also had America’s back after 9/11 when the Article V collective defense clause was triggered.
Trump, who never served in the military, could care less about the alliance’s loyalty to the United States. NATO is a waste of U.S. money and he wasn’t going to change his mind. Critics in the realist international relations camp always thought that NATO made a mistake enlarging the number of members who were either once Soviet republics or members of the Warsaw Pact behind the Iron Curtain.
This was sure to stoke the glee of Russia’s Vladimir Putin who always looks for weak points in the alliance. Indeed, the Kremlin was quite pleased that finally a candidate so close to the White House was criticizing NATO.
Would NATO Collapse Without the United States?
Flashforward to 2025. What if Trump actually does what he has warned to do and pulls the United States out of the alliance? NATO would likely collapse. Some partners are spending more on defense and Sweden and Finland have been added to the roster, but members do not have elements of warfare that could defeat Russia in a war. The alliance would die on the vine and everyone would then be out to fend for themselves.
The Americans Bring Much to the Table
NATO members depend on the United States for satellite imagery intelligence. The United States provides most of the aircraft carriers, surface warships, and submarines. The Americans also have the huge cargo planes that provide heavy lift and logistics support. The alliance could not fight a war effectively without the Americans. They would not have naval firepower, could not keep the intelligence flowing, and could not re-supply armies with food and water or transport tanks and artillery pieces to the battle without cargo planes.
It Would Be a Disaster
The alliance would also greatly miss the Americans’ combat proficiency, the sheer numbers of airplanes, ships, tanks, and infantry fighting vehicles, and their military support and logistics. NATO pilots would not be able to train in the United States. Spare parts and components would not be available to keep airplanes flying. The entire battle-waging superiority of NATO would fall apart.
Trump would then bring all American forces home. The quick reaction and elite troops of the 173rd Airborne Brigade in Italy, who are able to parachute into hot spots anywhere in Europe at any time, would leave for the United States. Armored combat brigades with all of their Abrams tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles would return stateside.
There would be a catastrophe without the United States in NATO. Russia would rejoice, claim victory, and would likely invade the Baltics to resume their empire-building in Eastern Europe.
For these reasons, the generals and admirals plus Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz would be sure to talk the president out of such a foolhardy notion.
Congress Says Not So Fast
Then there is Congress. In the FY24 National Defense Authorization Act, there is a provision that no president can leave NATO without the approval of lawmakers on Capitol Hill. This was passed to prevent Trump from unilaterally withdrawing. Interestingly, this measure was put forward by a group including Rubio, who was a senator at the time.
Rubio said in a statement in 2023, “The Senate should maintain oversight on whether or not our nation withdraws from NATO. We must ensure we are protecting our national interests and protecting the security of our democratic allies.”
President of the United States Donald Trump speaking at the 2017 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland.
Trump is probably being told that it is not worth going up against Congress for such a foolhardy notion of NATO withdrawal. He is often all bark and no bite and likes to use his outrageous comments as the beginning of negotiations. His point that NATO members should spend more on defense is well taken. And even peaceful Finland just announced it would spend at least three percent of its GDP on defense in the coming years. If you can get Finland on board, you are doing something right.
I would advise the president to always remain in NATO. It is the best alliance that the United States has and should be rock solid at all times. Congress will keep Trump from withdrawing (if he ever went that far) and Secretary of State Rubio would talk him out of it and maybe even resign if the president did the unthinkable. So, the United States is stuck with NATO and NATO is stuck with the United States. Let’s hope it stays that way.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
