Ukraine’s Defeat Would Be Certain if Donald Trump ‘Walks’

Several times this year, President Trump has threatened to walk away from Ukraine and abandon the conflict entirely, leaving support in the hands of a massively under-armed Europe.

While Ukraine has fought valiantly in the face of overwhelming odds, the loss of all American aid would drastically hinder its defensive elements.

HIMARS. Image Credit: British Army.

It may even spell doom for the Ukrainian armed forces.

What Happens if Trump Does ‘Walk’ From Ukraine? 

It is no exaggeration to call the US a vital partner to Ukraine. The United States accounted for around 50% of Ukraine’s military and economic support. This support includes small arms ammunition, artillery tubes and ammunition, tanks and armored fighting vehicles, air defense, HIMARS launchers and rockets, and everything in between.

All these tools have been instrumental to Ukraine’s defenses and are likely a significant reason why Ukraine has been able to hold out for so long.

If the US were to walk away, Ukraine would lose its main weapon supplier. While it would still possess an impressive stockpile of weapons and still receive deliveries from Europe, given the attrition rate in this war, Ukraine’s stockpiles would quickly dry up.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine (UAF) would struggle to replace its material losses and would have to be more conservative with ammunition. This would give a huge advantage to the Russians, who already enjoy the material advantage.

Training and Logistics

The US has also aided Ukraine in training and organizing its armed forces. Even before the war began, NATO had been involved in arming and training the UAF since 2014. Since Russia officially invaded in 2022, America has been heavily involved in training Ukrainian operatives to use and maintain Western systems.

The US trains Ukrainians to operate systems like the HIMARS, the M1 Abrams, the F-16, and other systems critical to Ukraine’s defense. The US military base in Poland has also been a helpful refuge where Ukraine can conduct vehicle repairs without fear of being struck by Russian drones or missiles.

In this regard, the US jumping ship would not hurt Ukraine too much. European nations like France, Germany, and the U.K. have been able to train Ukrainians in their own countries. Poland has operated as a relatively safe zone throughout the entire war.

However, the US also provides many of the spare parts for American-made systems that Ukraine needs. Thus, logistically, Ukraine could still operate its backline without the US but would face a shortage of American-made spare parts.

Intelligence

Arguably, one of the most important contributions the US has made in the war is its intelligence sharing with Ukraine. The US has shared intel on Russian troop movements, the position of important Russian assets signals intelligence, and everything in between with Ukraine.

The US frequently identifies valuable targets and then sends the data to Ukraine, which then fires using the data from the US. In this way, Ukraine has used high-precision systems like HIMARS or long-range drones to attack valuable targets well behind the front lines.

Losing America’s intelligence apparatus would be a disaster for Ukraine. While it still has its intelligence services and ISR capabilities, they are not nearly as sophisticated or comprehensive as the US agencies and satellite arrays.

U.S. Soldiers assigned to the 65th Field Artillery Brigade fire a High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) during a joint live-fire exercise with the Kuwait Land Forces, Jan. 8, 2019, near Camp Buehring, Kuwait. The U.S. and Kuwaiti forces train together frequently to maintain a high level of combat readiness and to maintain effective communication between the two forces. (U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Bill Boecker)

Without this, the Ukrainians would be blinded in many key areas. Finding high-value targets would become much more difficult, and Ukraine would be much more susceptible to deception from Russian troops, who would no longer have to worry about American satellites overhead.

How Long Would Ukraine Last?

Even when support was at its highest under Biden, Ukraine was still fighting an uphill battle. Without US assistance, the battle becomes all the harder. It is difficult to say how long Ukraine would last without the US, as many factors are in play.

Europe would still support Ukraine as much as possible; however, in its current condition, the E.U. cannot fill the gap left by America. Morale and resourcefulness are other factors. The Ukrainians have already surprised the world with their resilience. Even without America, they will likely fight on for as long as possible. However, without the US, the ammo will eventually dry up, and morale among the AFU may tank.

For its part, the Russian army may not commit to any large-scale offensives towards Kyiv and may instead keep up its low-paced tempo. Given the number of landmines and drones that are in play from both sides, it is unlikely that Russia would make any risky maneuvers even if American aid dries up.

Considering the amount of military and economic support that has already been donated to Ukraine, it is unlikely that the AFU will collapse in a few months or, if Ukraine plays its cards right, in a few years.

However, Ukraine would have been fighting a losing battle without US intelligence and ammunition, and its defeat would only have been a matter of time.

About the Author: 

Isaac Seitz, a 19FortyFive Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.