Key Points – Two decades ago, a tiny Swedish Gotland-class submarine “sunk” the USS Ronald Reagan multiple times in exercises, exposing critical vulnerabilities of U.S. Navy carriers.
-Using air-independent propulsion (AIP), diesel-electric subs like the Gotland-class—and China’s Yuan-class—can quietly stalk and threaten even advanced U.S. carriers.
A view from the Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser USS Normandy (CG 60) of the first-in-class aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) and the Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers USS Thomas Hudner (DDG 116), USS Ramage (DDG 61) and USS McFaul (DDG 74) as the ships steam in formation during a drill while underway as part of the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group March 5, 2023. Ford Carrier Strike Group is underway in the Atlantic Ocean executing its Composite Training Unit Exercise (COMPTUEX), an intense, multi-week exercise designed to fully integrate a carrier strike group as a cohesive, multi-mission fighting force and to test their ability to carry out sustained combat operations from the sea. As the first-in-class ship of Ford-class aircraft carriers, CVN 78 represents a generational leap in the U.S. Navy’s capacity to project power on a global scale. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Malachi Lakey)
-With China operating 20 Yuan-class subs equipped with heavy torpedoes and cruise missiles, the threat to American carrier strike groups has significantly increased.
-Despite advanced U.S. anti-submarine warfare capabilities, the Navy must adapt quickly, learning from past drills and preparing realistically for future submarine threats to maintain maritime superiority in a conflict with China.
The Navy Lost an Aircraft Carrier in a Historic Simulation
I burn many brain calories wondering about U.S. Navy aircraft carriers. Is the $13 billion price tag on the new Gerald R. Ford worth it?
What about the high cost of time and money for maintenance and re-fueling periods for nuclear-powered ships?
What about the quality of life for sailors? Could a U.S. carrier survive a war with China?
These are all questions that need answers if the Navy continues depending on flat-tops in 21st-century maritime warfare.
Not Just Carrier-killing Missiles to Watch Out For
Indeed, the Chinese have many anti-ship carrier-killing missiles.
The U.S. Navy must come to terms with the possibility of losing an aircraft carrier to enemy missiles.
Then, there are improved Chinese diesel-electric submarines. These have become stealthier over the years and could threaten a U.S. carrier strike group.
Take the story of the Gotland-class diesel-electric attack submarine that gave a carrier group fits during military exercises over 20 years ago. Has the Navy learned its lesson from these simulated losses?
Sweden Teaches the U.S. Navy Valuable Lessons
The Swedish Gotland-class “sunk” the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier several times in drills in 2004. The Gotland-class boats are small with only 32 sailors and officers on board. They are just 200 feet long and displace only 1,380 tons.
Ford-Class. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The cost, at least in dollars at the time to build these subs, was reported to be around $100 million. The Navy’s aircraft carrier came in at $4.5 billion.
Quiet Propulsion System Is a Difference-maker
But here is the real tactical difference.
They are deathly quiet because of an innovation that the United States became highly interested in after the simulated “defeat” of the Reagan.
I refer to the Gotland-class Stirling engine air-independent propulsion (AIP) system. This grants the diesel-electric sub great endurance. It can stay submerged with the AIP system for weeks instead of days.
The batteries are only used when the AIP is engaged, allowing the sub to run unabated for lengthy periods.
These AIP subs are cheaper and easier to build than nuclear-powered boats.
Swift, Quiet, and Deadly
They have Magnetic Anomaly Detectors and stealth coatings to make the Gotland-class more survivable and stealthy.
This enables them to discover enemy submarines better and evade sonar to run silent and deep. The U.S. Navy was highly interested in the Gotland-class after the Reagan had so much difficulty during the exercises.
Chinese Submarines Have AIP Like Gotland-Class
That spells trouble for the U.S. Navy. Sweden is friendly, but China is not.
The Chinese navy possesses its submarines that have the AIP system.
Aircraft Carrier U.S. Navy. Image Credit: U.S. Navy
The Yuan-class submarines are the first group of Chinese submarines to utilize AIP.
With AIP, the Yuan-class is just as valuable as a nuclear-powered sub. The only difference is the range and the ability to stay at sea for lengthy periods. A diesel-electric boat with AIP like the Yuan-class is something to worry about for U.S. anti-submarine warfare.
The U.S. Navy must watch out for other aircraft carriers that could succumb to AIP subs.
The U.S. carrier strike groups have many ways to defeat enemy submarines. Modern sonar systems and anti-submarine aircraft are constantly patrolling. American sailors are highly trained and must attend intense technical schools before they are rated as anti-submarine warfare experts.
This will come down to a duel between the Chinese submariners and American anti-sub sailors. The U.S. Navy must train realistically and learn the lessons from Ronald Reagan’s struggles against the AIP subs.
China Presents a Numbers Problem for U.S. Navy Aircraft Carriers
There are 20 Yuan-class subs, meaning if two American aircraft carriers patrolling the East and South China Seas, the Chinese could deploy up to ten subs each to chase the American flat-tops.
I don’t like those numbers, which spells a significant risk for the Navy’s dependence on aircraft carriers to fight the Chinese and project power and national prestige in the Indo-Pacific.
The Yuan-class has heavyweight torpedoes and, more concerning, anti-ship cruise missiles. They can reach a speed of 20 knots. The Yuan-class with the AIP can stay submerged longer, either close to shore or in the East and South China Seas depths.
The Ford-class aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) and the Italian aircraft carrier ITS Cavour (CVH 550) transit the Atlantic Ocean March 20, 2021, marking the first time a Ford-class and Italian carrier have operated together underway. As part of the Italian Navy’s Ready for Operations (RFO) campaign for its flagship, Cavour is conducting sea trials in coordination with the F-35 Lightning II Joint Program Office’s Patuxent River Integrated Test Force to obtain official certification to safely operate the F-35B. Gerald R. Ford is conducting integrated carrier strike group operations during independent steaming event 17 as part of her post-delivery test and trials phase of operations.
Navy Aircraft Carriers are in Trouble
Thus, the U.S. carriers have their work cut out for them. The Yuan-class is a worthy adversary. They could sneak inside a carrier strike group and cause trouble – much like the Swedish Gotland-class.
Over 20 years have passed since the exploits against the Ronald Reagan. The Navy must learn the lessons and focus hard on diesel-electric subs with AIP. There is no room for error, and each sailor on board a surface vessel in the U.S. Navy must come to grips with the fact that he or she could die on a sunk warship. So, anti-submarine warfare takes the essence of skill and experience.
The Chinese will do their best to threaten U.S. carriers, which could spell a disaster for the Navy and its ambitions to keep sea lanes open in the Indo-Pacific.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
