The United Kingdom’s (UK) participation in the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) has prompted other nations’ interest in joining the effort. The UK’s initial GCAP partner nations were Italy and Japan. Still, in April, it was reported that both Canada and Australia had been showing increasing interest in becoming involved in the project.
GCAP is currently a three-nation endeavor with the objective of developing a sixth-generation combat aircraft. Like other projects under development in the US, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and the French-German FCAS program, GCAP is supposed to deliver an aircraft built on a stealthy, tailless shape concept. The onboard systems would be the most advanced of their kind and would be augmented by artificial intelligence (AI).
GCAP Photo. Image Created by Ideogram.
One of AI’s more important functions would be to correlate and provide integrated airspace and threat data based on multiple input systems. AI would also be utilized to employ the aircraft’s next-generation weapons systems.
The UK and Italy have already been partners in the past on two other multinational aircraft programs: the late 1970s Tornado and the late 1980s Eurofighter. Japan was added to the mix with the Europeans after Tokyo’s efforts to develop a new-age fighter with one of the three OEMs in the US—Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Northrop—failed to materialize.
An Alternative for F-35 in Canada?
Canada’s interest in becoming involved in the GCAP is said to have been prompted by official statements made by US President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The resulting friction between Washington and Ottawa has prompted both the Canadian and Australian defense establishments to reevaluate their longer-term procurement planning.
Part of Canada’s deliberations about a shift in procurement planning stems from concerns about whether or not the US is still the reliable defense partner it was during the Cold War and into the beginning of this century. These apprehensions are even more pronounced when it comes to fighter jet aircraft—largely due to Canada’s obligations to the North American Air Defense Command (NORAD).
“The old relationship we had with the United States based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation is over,” Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney said last month. Whether just rhetoric or a profound realignment of his country’s alliances in the industrial sphere, the government appears to be on a course that would significantly alter the future relationship with the US.
GCAP and Timelines
Carney subsequently ordered a program review of Canada’s planned acquisition of 88 US-made F-35 fighter aircraft. This procurement included the Canadians engaging with European defense firms as part of a broader strategy for Canada to reduce its reliance on US hardware.
Sweden’s JAS-39E/F Gripen and France’s Dassault Rafale have been considered to replace the F-35. The Gripen came in second in the evaluation of different fighter options that eventually led to the selection of the US stealthy aircraft, but it is considerably less expensive to purchase and operate.
But both aircraft—capable as they are—are still 4th or 4.5th-generation designs at best. Whatever Canada procures will be a platform that has to be in service for 30 years or more. Therefore, it must be survivable in future combat environment scenarios, which in the out years means being 5th-generation or better.
F-35I Adir Fighter from Israel. Image Created by Ideogram.
Canada F-35 Fighters. Image Created by Ideogram.
F-35 Fighter for Canada. Image Credit: Created by Ideogram.
A U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II participating in NATO exercise Ramstein Flag 24 flies over the west coast of Greece, Oct. 4, 2024. Over 130 fighter and enabler aircraft from Greece, Canada, France, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States are training side by side to improve tactics and foster more robust integration, demonstrating NATO’s resolve, commitment and ability to deter potential adversaries and defend the Alliance. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Emili Koonce)
F-35 Fighters in Canada. Image Created by Ideogram.
But the biggest complication associated with looking to the GCAP as a solution for Canada is the timelines involved, explained a recently retired Canadian defense official.
“The older F/A-18 models we fly now are so long in the tooth that by 2032 at the latest they will have to be retired from service. But the GCAP is not supposed to available for any of the nations involved in that program until 2035,” he continued. “And that assumes the program runs according to schedule, which almost none of them ever do.”
“The intervening period—even assuming that the GCAP is ready in time—is still three years, which is an eternity in the national defense world,” he said. “Canada ‘switching horses’ and joining the GCAP team might be a politicaly astute—as well as emotionally satisfying—move, but the time lag factor also makes it impractical.”
About the Author:
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
