When asked about Canada’s intentions to go through with the procurement of the US-made F-35, the recently elected Prime Minister, Mark Carney, is quoted as saying there are “alternatives” to be explored. While that argument is technically correct, many details and complications associated with any major defense procurement would need to be evaluated first, say numerous combat aircraft experts who spoke to 19FortyFive.
The decision comes down to three factors. One is whether or not another aircraft can actually perform the required mission while costing no more or even less than the US aircraft. The F-35 is rated as being expensive to procure, but the price is lower than it might be due to the numbers it is being built at—creating economies of scale that reduce the cost per unit.
A U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II assigned to the 56th Fighter Wing, Luke Air Force Base, Arizona, performs a strafing run during Haboob Havoc, April 24, 2024, over Barry M. Goldwater Range, Arizona. Haboob Havoc is a total force exercise that provides a way for pilots from various bases to demonstrate their skills across a diverse range of aircraft, including F-35 Lightning IIs, F-16 Fighting Falcons, and A-10 Thunderbolt IIs, while also testing their abilities in different mission sets such as dogfighting and gun runs. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Mason Hargrove)
However, the flyaway price is not the whole story. Estimates of the cost-per-flight hour of the stealthy jet are between US $35,000-42,000.
That, however, is only the beginning. A report from a year ago by the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) details rising sustainment costs for the F-35 that only increase as time goes on.
The Costs of Cancellation on F-35
The second factor is whether Canada can withdraw from the F-35 procurement without paying the charges that normally come with backing out of a major acquisition.
As an executive from a European military aircraft manufacturer explained, “These programs—particularly those that have a long-running component of industrial participation attached to them tend to be front-loaded,” he said.
“Just remember what happened with Austria back in 2012 when they were trying to exit their commitment to purchase the Eurofighter. They found out what everyone else does in these situations, which is that it can cost you a lot more to get out of the deal rather than to just stay in.”
Then there are the complications for Canada with all the offsets and other industrial participation packages it has benefitted from for years without even taking delivery of a single aircraft.
European and Canadian defense suppliers make a lot of parts for an F-35, pointed out Capital Alpha analyst Byron Callan in a report run by the investment publication Barron’s this past March. Not only would the Canadian industry lose out on continuing to support the F-35 program for more customers than just Canada, but as Callan pointed out, the production rate for European aircraft is currently at a very low level.
“How quickly other European suppliers could increase capacity is another issue to weigh,” he said. The much smaller production runs for those aircraft mean the benefits for Canada’s industrial sector would take a hit.
Mixed Fleet
The third factor is whether Canada decides there is some utility in accepting delivery of only the 16 F-35s (out of a total program buy of 88) they are committed to at present. Then Ottawa could truncate the procurement at this point, have those aircraft on hand as a first-day-of-the-war “silver bullet,” and supplant them with 70-plus of some other fighter that could be flown for regular day-to-day missions—a mixed fleet.
This appeared to be the message from Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair when, earlier in May, he stated, “I’ve discussed this with the Prime Minister [Mark Carney] … the F-35 fighter jet, it was the fighter jet identified by our air force as the platform that they required, but we are also examining other alternatives.”
The question is “whether we need all of those [88 originally programmed] jet fighters to be F-35.”
While this sounds like an interesting alternative for America’s neighbor to the north, the complication is that no other realistic 5th-generation fighter alternatives to the F-35 are being manufactured at present by Western or other partner militaries.
There are several choices in the category of 4th-generation aircraft. Most of these that are still in production are in the 3rd or greater iterations of their original design, so they are, in reality, 4.5-generation platforms. A particular example would be the F/A-18 Hornet.
The Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) currently flies one of the oldest versions of the Hornet. The most recent variant, the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, is so different from the baseline A/B-series design that it is almost a different aircraft, which means that for those nations wanting a true 5th-generation aircraft, the F-35 is the only game in town.
Retired Lieutenant General Yvan Blondin served as commander of the RCAF from 2012 until 2015 and had long lobbied for Ottawa to consider other potential solutions. However, after taking a very serious look at the options, he came to the same conclusion that so many others have.
A U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II assigned to the F-35A Lightning II Demonstration Team performs a practice airshow performance at Hill Air Force Base, Utah, Jan. 11, 2023. The F-35 Demo Team performs rehearsal flights regularly to maintain required flying certifications and to uphold and maintain their mission and Air Force recruiting standards. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Kaitlyn Ergish)
“There’s no better military option,” he stated recently.
His statement is based on the reality that stealthy aircraft are required if a pilot is likely to encounter the latest in air defense systems or long-range air-to-air missiles.
Andrew Curtis, a retired RAF Air Commodore, recently explained to a Newsweek correspondent that the Dassault Rafale from France or the Eurofighter Typhoon is not up to that challenge and that buying these aircraft as a second model type is not very practical.
“Militarily, the last thing you want to be doing these days is having mixed fleets,” he explained. “If Canada is committed to buying 16, the chances are” they will realize that another, less capable fighter is not the answer, and “they’ll buy all 88.”
About the Author:
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
