Aircraft Carrier. Image Credit: U.S. Navy.
The aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) steams alongside the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72), background, in the Mediterranean Sea, April 24, 2019. The John C. Stennis Carrier Strike Group (CSG) 3 and Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (CSG) 12 are conducting dual carrier operations, providing opportunity for two strike groups to work together alongside key allies and partners in the U.S. 6th Fleet area of operations. John C. Stennis is underway in the Mediterranean Sea as part of the John C. Stennis Carrier Strike Group (JCSCSG) deployment in support of maritime security cooperation efforts in the U.S. 6th Fleet area of responsibility. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Grant G. Grady)
APRA HARBOR, Guam (April 18, 2025) Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN 68) arrived in Guam for a scheduled port visit, April 18. Nimitz is underway in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations on a scheduled deployment, demonstrating the U.S. Navy’s unwavering commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. (U.S. Navy Photos by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Samantha Jetzer)
Most China watchers assume that leaders in Beijing always want to go on the offensive militarily, whether it is attacking Taiwan, taking more island territory, or exporting its authoritarian government system to other countries in the developing world.
But another way to look at it is that China is playing defense, and it can accomplish this strong posture by focusing on anti-ship missiles, drones, plus manned fighters and bombers to create a defensive arc or bubble.
Defense can often be more potent than offense, and we know that China is looking several moves ahead and planning decades to build a grand strategy that will enable the Middle Kingdom to have the strongest military and economy in the world.
China’s Aircraft Carriers Have an Advantage: What Is A2/AD?
Military planners in the West call this defensive bubble “Anti-Access/ Area Denial” or A2/AD. It aims to keep the United States and its allies from encroaching on the First Island Chain of territorial claims closest to the Mainland.
The great thing about A2/AD is that China doesn’t need aircraft carriers to accomplish its defensive objectives and goals. A2/AD allows the aircraft carriers to be a “bonus” for projecting power outside the region.
The navy has submarines that can be used for A2/AD, beyond the missiles and aircraft mentioned above.
China May Not Even Need Aircraft Carriers for A2/AD
Sure, it wants six carriers by 2030 to have at least half of those in the water at all times.
China has three conventionally-powered flat-tops and the next one most likely will be nuclear-powered.
The United States may not be able to operate closely to China due to A2/AD and its stingy defensive posture. This creates the bubble, and then the hammer is the Chinese aircraft carrier.
Three is enough for the time being. Numbers four, five, and six can come later and will not affect the efficacy of the current A2/AD bubble.
The New Great Wall of China
Thus, Beijing is in a great position militarily. The country has built a wall around the Mainland. China can use its carriers to become a true Blue Water navy that operates outside its region. It can protect sea lanes in the Middle East that bring in oil.
China may also execute the overseas “String of Pearls” strategy, which involves building a series of bases that can maintain carriers and support ships in ports outside of East Asia.
Even if Xin Jinping decided to stop building carriers today, China’s A2/AD bubble is sufficient to stymie the Americans. The U.S. Navy is forced to keep its own aircraft carriers outside the First Island Chain and out of range of ship-killing missiles. That’s the denial of access part.
PHILIPPINE SEA (Feb. 24, 2024) A U.S. Air Force B-52 Stratofortress, attached to the 5th Bomb Wing, and aircraft attached to Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 11, fly in formation over the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71), Feb. 24, 2024. Theodore Roosevelt, flagship of Carrier Strike Group Nine, is underway conducting routine operations in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations. U.S. 7th Fleet is the U.S. Navy’s largest forward-deployed numbered fleet, and routinely interacts and operates with allies and partners in preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific region. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Thomas Gooley)
The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) transits the South China Sea during a Maritime Cooperative Activity with the Philippine Navy, Jan. 17, 2025. The U.S. and Philippines work together as allies, enhancing the interoperability of maritime forces and supporting their shared goal of a free and open Indo-Pacific. Carrier Strike Group ONE, is underway conducting routine operations in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Brianna Walker)
The U.S. Navy and Its Aircraft Carriers Has No Intention of Slinking Away
Of course, the United States has no intention of staying outside the bubble. The Americans want sea lines of communication and freedom of maneuver in the Indo-Pacific open at all times.
But the U.S. Navy will have to come to terms that it could lose an aircraft carrier in any shooting war with China.
This would devastate American morale and likely force Washington to seek a cease-fire in the conflict if it arose.
I have spoken to U.S. Navy surface fleet officers and submariners, who claim the Navy would “roll up” so many Chinese ships that Xi Jinping would sue for peace. Perhaps both sides are overconfident.
It remains to be seen what President-elect Donald Trump has in store for China strategy-wise. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, as does Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio, has a reputation for being a China hawk.
They will have to deal with the A2/AD defensive bubble and figure out if the United States would intervene in a China attack on Taiwan. More American surface vessels and submarines would be nice, plus additional long-range JASSM missiles and combat drones.
Will ‘Peace Through Strength’ Work?
The time is over for the United States to guess and yearn for a China strategy in the Indo-Pacific. Beijing’s defensive bubble has been established.
The United States may not be able to defend its allies due to the American people’s aversion to war. Peace through Strength has a nice bumper sticker ring to it. Still, this slogan must be accompanied by a specific tactical, operational, and strategic doctrine if the United States is to achieve peace in East Asia.
However, the new Trump security team must still be prepared for war. China has the carriers and the surface ships to be a global power someday. And I have not even mentioned nuclear weapons. China has at least 500 warheads and wants 1,000 by 2030. They also have no intention of entering into arms control talks soon.
(Jan. 3, 2014) The Italian navy aircraft carrier ITS Cavour (CVH 550), front, the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) and the French navy aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle (R 91), conduct operations in the Gulf of Oman. Harry S. Truman, flagship for the Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group, is conducting operations with Task Force 473 to enhance levels of cooperation and interoperability, enhance mutual maritime capabilities and promote long-term regional stability in the U.S. 5th Fleet area of responsibility. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Ethan M. Schumacher/Released)
China has an A2/AD defensive bubble around the First Island Chain keeps the United States away from that protective arc. It is building more carriers as a “bonus” for someday steaming outside the region to project power and establish new military bases beyond the ones in Pakistan and Djibouti.
It can someday attack Taiwan with a 50-50 chance that Trump won’t intervene. It could sink a U.S. aircraft carrier and watch the American people recoil in terror. And it is building more nuclear weapons. This all adds up to a formidable strategy.
Let’s hope that the best American minds are working to devise a Trump doctrine to answer China’s formidable plans and objectives.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: A Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
