Summary and Key Points: The 2026 Munich Security Conference confirmed a fundamental U.S. departure from the liberal international order.
-While Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasizes “Western Civilization” and “sovereignty,” critics warn that dismantling post-1945 institutions risks repeating the instability of the interwar period.
-By withdrawing from alliances such as NATO and the Bretton Woods financial system, the Trump administration may lose critical leverage against China and Russia.
-This pivot threatens the wealth and security generated by decades of cooperation.
-As the “rules-based order” yields to transactional power politics, Washington must decide if a nationalistic “jungle” can sustain American global leadership.
RIP, International Order: Why MAGA’s Turn on Global Alliances Could Empower China
During Donald Trump’s U.S. presidency, the annual Munich Security Conference has become a venue for sharp Euro-American disputes over the rules of international order. U.S. Vice President JD Vance delivered a highly controversial address last year. Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a softer, but similar, speech this year.
The general consensus that has emerged from these speeches is that the Trump administration wants to pull away from the liberal international order—or even pull it down. As Rubio said—and Europeans seem to agree—the old world order no longer exists. Traditional MAGA (Make American Great Again) concerns about migration, woke-ism, and sovereignty fill Trump administration foreign policy speeches and documents, with little on Ukraine, Russia, China, and other traditional foreign policy issues.
The U.S. foreign policy community has been highly skeptical of this Trumpist turn against liberal community. There are two primary concerns about tearing down liberal cooperation that MAGA needs to answer.
The Liberal International Order Served the US Pretty Well
The most obvious problem with MAGA’s turn on alliances and liberal cooperation is that these institutions have served the United States well since 1945.
Indeed, it was the United States which built the liberal international order after World War II.
Several particular accomplishments stand out:
-The liberal community of states defeated Communism in a long, expensive, global contest. It is remarkable that MAGA often seems to forget this. NATO, the International Monetary Fund, U.S. alliances in Asia, and other elements of global infrastructure helped the United States decisively defeat the greatest military and ideological threat America ever faced.
-The liberal community fought Islamism to standstill after September 11, 2001. The war on terror was not the decisive ideological and military victory the Cold War was, but liberal cooperation prevented any repeat of 9/11-style mega-terror. In the early years of the war on terror, there was widespread anxiety that huge terror strikes would be common and would perhaps include the use of weapons of mass destruction. That did not happen, in part because of widespread police cooperation among U.S.-aligned states. These states also fought with the United States in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Eurofighter Typhoon Aircraft NATO. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-The liberal order has generated extraordinary wealth for its participants. The lesson of the trade and financial turmoil of the interwar years underlay the postwar Bretton Woods regime of trade and finance. That allowed liberal states to reap tremendous comparative-advantage gains and decisively outgrow Communist and Islamist competitors. So advantageous was the world economy that communist China joined it, as did socialist India and post-Soviet Russia. The boon to America has been enormous—not simply all the products made accessible by foreign trade, but the vast foreign financing of American debt, without which U.S. taxes would be much higher.
-These liberal partners will almost certainly be called on by the United States if it fights a war with China. It is widely accepted that China is the greatest national security challenge to the United States and will remain so for the next several decades. Fighting a conflict alongside allies is obviously preferable to fighting alone. U.S. allies allow Washington to project power to far corners of the globe. They also supplement U.S. power with their own forces. It was striking and disappointing that Rubio’s speech last week did not mention China at all.
What Will MAGA Do if the International Order Is Gone?
No one argues that the liberal international order is without flaws. For example, Americans have complained for decades that Europe underspends on defense, and both progressive and MAGA critiques that neoliberalism worsens inequality are convincing.
But these problems can be fixed within liberal norms. Europe can spend, and is spending, more on defense, and safety nets can be strengthened to soften the blow of trade dislocation.
But MAGA seems more intent on pulling down the liberal order in the interest of sovereignty and nationalism. This sounds suspiciously like the interwar period, with its protectionism, arms racing, and power politics similar to Trump’s threats against Greenland. The turmoil of the 1920s and 30s led to World War II, which is precisely why we have the liberal international order.
If jungle lawlessness is MAGA replacement for liberal alignment, the United States will suffer in time. Abused allies will defect, leaving Washington alone in its pursuits and making U.S. power projection much harder. They will also stop holding U.S. debt, which will push up U.S. borrowing costs. Others will look for separate deals with Russia or China, abandoning the United States to find their own path instead.
As a large, powerful state, the United States can navigate the jungle. Small countries will suffer the most from a return to raw power politics. But the United States pays costs too. It will be pushed out of Eurasia, cut off from producers and borrowers, left poorer, and distrusted.
You Can’t Have Your Cake and Eat It Too
MAGA pundits likely do not want a world of lawlessness for all. Instead, Trump seems to want the United States to behave as it pleases, while everyone else follows the rules. Thus, he can threaten Canada and Denmark but takes umbrage when they respond in kind.
The United States is so dominant among liberal states right now that it can probably get away with this for a few years. America’s partners will absorb Trumpian abuse in hopes of holding the liberal system together.
But eventually, they will drift from the United States, and the self-inflicted costs of U.S. abuse will appear.
Author: Dr. Robert Kelly, Pusan National University
Dr. Robert E. Kelly is a professor of international relations in the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy at Pusan National University in South Korea. His research interests focus on Security in Northeast Asia, U.S. foreign policy, and international financial institutions. He has written for outlets including Foreign Affairs, the European Journal of International Relations, and the Economist, and he has spoken on television news services such as the BBC and CCTV. His personal website/blog is here; his Twitter page is here.
