Summary and Key Points: Dr. Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the AEI and former Pentagon official, evaluates the shift in U.S. policy following the 2026 strikes on the Islamic Republic of Iran.
-Drawing a direct parallel to the 1985 KGB response to Hezbollah kidnappings in Beirut, Rubin argues that “brute force” serves as the only effective deterrent against religious zealots.
Shahed-136 Drone. Image Credit: YouTube Screenshot.
-This 19FortyFive report analyzes the failure of the State Department’s multicultural diplomacy, asserting that the elimination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei corrects decades of strategic negligence.
-Rubin concludes that the “Trump Doctrine” finally addresses the Iranian threat by mirroring the ruthless efficacy of Cold War-era Soviet deterrence.
The End of “Kicking the Can”: Why War with Iran Became Inevitable After Decades of Negligence
On September 30, 1985, Shi’ite gunmen abducted four Soviet diplomats in West Beirut. While seven Americans were already hostages in Lebanon, it was the first time pro-Iranian militias had taken Russians hostage. A month later, their captors released three; the Soviets had recovered the body of the fourth from a field just a few days after the kidnapping.
Release by Brute Force
To secure the release of their diplomats, the Soviets did not pay a ransom, unlike Presidents Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden. Rather, according to press reports at the time, after the first Soviet diplomat was killed, “The KGB then apparently kidnapped and killed a relative of an unnamed leader of the Shias’ Hezbollah (Party of God) group. Parts of the man’s body, the paper said, were then sent to the Hezbollah leader with a warning that he would lose other relatives in a similar fashion if the three remaining Soviet diplomats were not immediately released. They were quickly freed.” It was the last time Hezbollah took any Russian hostage.
Idilic Multicultural Ideology
When facing rogue regimes and their proxies, brute force matters more than diplomacy. Americans pride themselves on being multicultural, but the universities that train the elite and the State Department’s interpretation of multiculturalism are rosy and positive.
ARABIAN SEA (Jan. 28, 2026) An F/A-18F Super Hornet, attached to Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 41, prepares to launch from the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) in the Arabian Sea, Jan. 28. Abraham Lincoln is deployed to the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations to support maritime security and stability in the CENTCOM area of responsibility. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Zoe Simpson)
In essence, it is about appreciating differences and ordering a mojito at a sushi bar. Political correctness and projection diminish the importance of different people’s ideologies.
Real estate developers can negotiate with each other because they share frames of reference, a desire to make money, and a sense of the rules of the game; religious zealots are a different matter entirely. Diplomacy does not work unless all parties agree to the same rules of the game.
This is the major reason why diplomacy has failed for decades and across administrations and why the Iranian security forces and their proxies continue to target Americans. The Islamic Republic always looked at diplomacy as an asymmetric warfare strategy with which to tie America’s hands while it pursues its own nuclear aims.
Even reformist politicians admitted as much in their internal debates. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was never going to forfeit his nuclear program because to do so would mean telling his base that their four-decade, trillion-dollar sacrifice was for naught.
Asymmetric Diplomatic Engagement
Under such circumstances, decades of engagement represented strategic negligence. The Islamic Republic waged war against the United States for more than four decades, gleefully demanding “death to America,” taking hostages, and sponsoring terror and proxies.
In effect, every president since Jimmy Carter has kicked the can down the road until, with Iran’s nuclear and ballistic program far advanced, war became inevitable.
They all put political ease above the necessities of leadership and strategic defense. Critics can say war in this moment was unnecessary; that Trump might have waited a month or a year, but that missed the point. With each passing day, the Iranian threat grew. What did not change was their desire to destroy America.
Ford-Class Aircraft Carrier. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Had Carter or Reagan acted when Iran first attacked America’s embassies, kidnapped Americans in Beirut, or bombed a U.S Marine peacekeeper contingent, they may have saved hundreds of lives. In 1985, Soviet leaders showed Iranian proxies what happens when they pick a fight with Russians.
The ayatollahs and their terrorists internalized that lesson.
Today, Trump teaches them the same. The elimination of Khamenei and his broader family teaches a lesson long overdue.
Indeed, if there is any Trump doctrine, it should be this: Take a hostage or murder an American for political purposes, and what befalls the Islamic Republic today will replicate. A little deterrence up front can avoid decades of conflict and contentious diplomacy down the line. Such a possession would do more to bring peace and end terror than any previous Trump virtue signaling to lobby for a Nobel Peace Prize.
About the Author: Dr. Michael Rubin
Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. The opinions and views expressed are his own. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre- and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea on the Horn of Africa and the Middle East, covering conflicts, culture, and terrorism to deployed US Navy and Marine units. The views expressed are the author’s own.
