Summary and Key Points: National Security Columnist Steve Balestrieri evaluates the intersection of military objectives and global energy markets during the 2026 Iran conflict. With oil hitting $100-$120 per barrel at one point, President Trump has prioritized the “unconditional surrender” of the Iranian regime over immediate relief at the pump.
-This report analyzes the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and the G7’s potential emergency reserve release.
F-35s from the 62nd Fighter Squadron visit Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland, October 21, 2021. F-35 Lightning II aircraft traveled to JBSA-Lackland for a two week stay to train and fly with multiple different aircraft from the surrounding area to include the 149th Fighter Wing’s F-16 Vipers. (Air National Guard Photo by Staff Sgt. Ryan Mancuso)
-Balestrieri explores the administration’s “fast” conflict doctrine, concluding that the U.S. is leveraging its domestic energy independence to withstand a global price shock while systematically dismantling the IRGC’s nuclear infrastructure.
The $120 Barrel Reality: Why Trump is Betting the U.S. Economy on a “Short-Term” Iran War
President Donald Trump has indicated that a military conflict with Iran—which has driven oil prices above $100 a barrel—could last for a few weeks or potentially longer, describing rising energy costs as a “small price to pay” for security.
Despite the surge in oil prices, the administration has signaled a willingness to endure short-term economic strain to achieve the objective of eliminating the “nuclear threat” and stabilizing the Strait of Hormuz against further Iranian threats to shut it down, where 20 percent of the world’s oil travels.
Will the president cave to political pressure over gas prices and halt the air war over Iran before all objectives are met?
Oil Prices Surge Early Monday, G7 Pondering Reserve Release
Oil prices surged again early Monday, briefly trading near $120 a barrel before slipping back toward $100 as the G7 nations weigh releasing emergency oil reserves to counter supply disruptions from the war in Iran.
Barrons reported that oil shortages linked to the conflict are worsening, prompting major energy-consuming nations to consider extraordinary steps to contain the surge in prices.
Natural gas prices have surged by more than 90 percent since the bombing campaign began last Saturday.
The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) transits the Philippine Sea with six additional F-35C Lightning II aircraft assigned to the “Argonauts” of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 147, part of Carrier Air Wing FIVE, Dec. 13, 2024. VFA-147 operates from Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, Japan. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command forces perform operations in and around critical sea passages and trade thoroughfares to deter threats that create regional instability and impinge on the free flow of goods, people, and ideas. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Apprentice Pablo Chavez)
A U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II, assigned to the 187th Fighter Wing takes off at Dannelly Field, Ala., Aug. 6, 2024. The 187th Fighter Wing participated in Northern Lightning, a joint training exercise, emphasizing user-defined objectives resulting in tailored, scenario-based, full spectrum, high-end training.
Trump Says Oil Price Jump, “A Small Price To Pay”
President Donald Trump has claimed higher oil prices are a “very small price to pay” for global “peace and safety” as the Iran air campaign continues unabated.
Oil prices have been surging since the US and Israel launched joint military strikes on Iran just last Saturday, recording their largest one‑week rise in price since March 1983.
The increase, passing the $100-a-barrel milestone for the first time in more than three years, will not decrease until the US opens up the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic in the Middle East.
“Short-term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iranian nuclear threat is over, are a very small price to pay for the U.S.A., and world safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!” the president declared on his Truth Social page on “X”.
The United States Duration Strategy Plans For A Short Conflict
President Trump has suggested the conflict will be a “short-term disruption” and not a “forever war,” aiming to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat quickly. However, he has not ruled out “boots on the ground.”
The impact on the global economy due to oil prices has been stark. Oil-producing countries, such as Kuwait and the UAE, have slowed production due to a glut in refineries, as oil has not been moving to markets. As of March 8, 2026, oil prices surged past $100 a barrel following the non-movement of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. As of this publication, oil prices have dropped but continue to move up and down rapidly.
F-35. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Thirteen U.S. Marine Corps F-35B Lightning II with Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) 122, Marine Aircraft Group 13, 3rd Marine Aircraft Wing (MAW), are staged aboard the amphibious assault ship USS America (LHA 6) as part of routine training in the eastern Pacific, Oct. 8, 2019. Integrating 3rd MAW’s combat power and capabilities while conducting realistic training is essential to generate readiness and lethality in our units. (U.S. Marine Corps photo illustration by Lance Cpl. Juan Anaya)
President Trump has dismissed concerns about rising gas prices, stating they will “drop rapidly” once the conflict ends.
“No Time Limits”
While initially suggesting a month-long operation, Trump has also stated he has “no time limits” on how long the war could continue to achieve his objectives. He added that there would be no deal to end the US war against Iran without an “unconditional surrender” by Iran.
The US energy strategy is banking on a short conflict. The administration is relying on a “fast” victory to stabilize energy markets, despite warnings from market analysts that the disruption could cause more enduring economic damage.
Schumer Calls For Release of Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has called for the president to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help lower the price surge.
“The Strategic Petroleum Reserve exists for moments exactly like this,” Schumer said in a released statement.
“When wars and global crises disrupt energy markets, the United States can act, but President Trump and his administration are refusing to do so. Trump should release oil from the SPR now to stabilize markets, bring prices down, and stop the price shock that American families are already feeling thanks to his reckless war.”
Lt. Nicholas Eppler, from Exeter, Calif., directs flight operations as an F-35C Lightning II assigned to the “Argonauts” of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 147 launches from the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70), Oct. 25, 2021. The Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group is on a scheduled deployment in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations to enhance interoperability through alliances and partnerships while serving as a ready-response force in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific region.
However, there is no shortage of gasoline or natural gas in the United States, where the US produces its own and doesn’t rely on the Middle East for either. All of the gasoline in the pumps and that has been in the pumps since the price surge was already bought and paid for.
But until there is movement through the Strait, oil prices will continue to rise. And that will have a snowball effect on the economy and prices for all goods.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
