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The Trump Subpoena: The Ultimate Political Pandora’s Box?

Donald Trump speaking to supporters at an immigration policy speech at the Phoenix Convention Center in Phoenix, Arizona.
Donald Trump speaking to supporters at an immigration policy speech at the Phoenix Convention Center in Phoenix, Arizona.

A Trump Subpoena Is Risky for the Jan. 6 Committee Too: The showdown between the Jan. 6 select committee and former President Donald Trump is nigh, as Rep. Liz Cheney teases that a subpoena is imminent

Donald Trump

Donald Trump on Twitter. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

“So we’ll be issuing a subpoena shortly, both for his testimony under oath as well as for documents,” the outgoing Wyoming Republican lawmaker said at a Harvard University forum. “And we’ll take whatever next steps we have to take assuming that he will fulfill his legal obligation and honor the subpoena, but if that doesn’t happen, we’ll take the steps after that.”

Whether this epic battle takes place only in courtrooms or in the halls of Congress remains to be seen. The outcome won’t happen in time to swing the midterm elections, but the pitfalls for Trump and Republicans are obvious.

Trump could deepen his legal jeopardy, now unfolding on multiple fronts, with any testimony. He could rant and rave like a lunatic. He could, like the Jan. 6 committee itself, keep the focus on the past when Republicans are best served by having voters fixated on President Joe Biden and the present.

All this has the potential to be bad for Republicans generally and Trump specifically. The former president, who clearly intends to run again in 2024 or at least keep that impression alive for as long as possible, could compromise either his availability or electability.

That might not be the worst news for Republicans who prefer other options. But Trump is still the frontrunner, and like it or not, he has left an indelible mark on the entire Republican brand.

It’s not surprising that Democrats have been salivating ever since the House panel unanimously voted to subpoena Trump last week. As is ever the case with Trump, be careful what you wish for.

There are all kinds of ways in which Trump’s testimony can backfire on his antagonists. First, one of the reasons the Jan. 6 committee hearings have had whatever success they have had is that it is an uninterrupted, one-sided narrative.

The committee has not publicly interviewed any hostile witnesses. It has now had any cross-examination of the people who have testified. Both Republican members are Never Trumpers who believe all the same things about the former president and the Jan. 6 Capitol riot that the Democrats on the committee do.

While that absence of conflict may sound boring, combined with professional television production quality it has helped the Jan. 6 committee tell a better story than a typical squabbling congressional committee. 

Trump upsets that apple cart and brings the proceedings back down to hyperpartisan earth

Democrats may think they will like these optics, and the contrast may end up serving them well. But it would be a major disruptive change and it is impossible to know how it would transform the hearings until after it happens.

There is a reason Trump is reportedly open to testifying if he is aired live. And it isn’t just that he likes the attention (though he does).

Second, large numbers of Republicans more or less agree with Trump about the 2020 election. Most would not attack the Capitol or engage in any kind of violence. Some may mean they believe ballot harvesting and other practices that became more common during COVID are relatively low-integrity ways of voting. Still, others may think Sidney Powell is no worse than Stacey Abrams

Whatever the case may be, under the terms Trump would be most likely to actually testify, viewers of the committee who have heard only of the Big Lie leading to the insurrection would instead hear a defense of these stolen election claims — or at least their repetition.

Even if you believe sunlight is the best disinfectant, the risks here are obvious.

Finally, the sight of an ex-president being tormented by a congressional committee could produce a rally-around-Trump effect, especially among Republicans.

If that seems implausible to you, consider what the initial polling after the FBI’s raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home in Florida found.

Donald Trump

President of the United States Donald Trump speaking with attendees at the 2019 Student Action Summit hosted by Turning Point USA at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida. Image by Gage Skidmore.

Of course, the likeliest scenario is still that Trump ignores or fights the subpoena, in which case it becomes yet another front in the interminable legal battles he is facing. 

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But Trump is an unusual and unpredictable political figure who has proven resistant to being brought down by conventional methods. The well-scripted Jan. 6 committee will be taking risks of its own if Trump is permitted to ad-lib.

Expert Biography: A 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, James Antle III is the Washington Examiner’s politics editor. He was previously managing editor of the Daily Caller, associate editor of the American Spectator, and Editor of the American Conservative. He is the author of Devouring Freedom: Can Big Government Ever Be Stopped?

Written By

W. James Antle III is the Washington Examiner's politics editor. He was previously managing editor of the Daily Caller, associate editor of the American Spectator, and senior writer for the American Conservative. He is the author of Devouring Freedom: Can Big Government Ever Be Stopped?

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