Summary and Key Points: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood, a national security expert and author, evaluates the domestic political fallout of the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.
-Following the first week of Operation Epic Fury, new CNN/SSRS and Reuters/Ipsos polls reveal that nearly 60% of Americans lack trust in President Donald Trump’s military strategy.
B-2 Bomber. The B-21 Raider will look very similar. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-This report analyzes the “confused messaging” from Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the intense backlash from conservative influencers like Matt Walsh.
-Eastwood concludes that without a clear “off-ramp” and a prime-time Oval Office address, the administration risks a domestic political “quagmire” similar to previous Middle Eastern conflicts.
The 60% Dissent: Why New Polling Shows a Major Majority of Americans Oppose Operation Epic Fury
The U.S. conflict in Iran is difficult for many ordinary Americans to understand and support. There is no clear cause and effect like the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990 that led to the extremely successful Operation Desert Storm.
During that quick war, people were convinced that the United States should act with a multitude of international support and a large and willing group of allies to counter Saddam Hussein. Even the reasoning behind the Second Gulf War and invasion in 2003 to depose Hussein was clearly articulated at the beginning and supported initially by most.
Domestic Political Pressure Against the Conflict Is Already Heightening
These strikes against Iran in 2026 are affected by negative domestic political pressures. Democrats are against anything that President Donald Trump does. Some people think that Israel convinced Trump to attack Iran.
B-52 Bomber. Image Credit: 19FortyFive.com Taken at the National Museum of the Air Force.
Many Republicans are supportive, but not all conservatives are on board. Young people do not have a long history with Iran and are mostly unaware of all the malign acts conducted by the ayatollahs over the years that have killed more than 1,000 Americans and made the Middle East unstable. Many members of Generation Z don’t know that Iran is the biggest state sponsor of terrorism in the world.
New Polling Is Bad News for the White House
Opinion polls tease these beliefs out. A CNN poll conducted by SSRS should have warning signs for the Trump national security team. Almost 60 percent of Americans do not support Operation Epic Fury.
“The poll, fielded shortly after US and Israeli attacks launched the war with Iran, finds majorities express doubts about President Donald Trump’s handling of the situation. Most say they lack trust in Trump to make the right decisions about U.S. use of force in Iran, with 60 percent saying they do not think he has a clear plan for handling the situation and 62 percent saying he should get congressional approval for any further military action,” according to CNN.
Only 12 percent of the respondents support boots on the ground. However, a vast majority of Americans believe that Iran is an enemy, according to an earlier survey done by CNN in January.
Another Poll Suggests War Fatigue Already
A Reuters/Ipsos poll revealed similar findings. In that questionnaire, only 25 percent approve of the strikes while 43 percent disapprove. Another result of the poll is that 29 percent of respondents are “not sure” whether they support or do not support the strikes on Iran.
A B-52 Stratofortress assigned to the 2nd Bomb Wing, Barksdale Air Force Base, Louisiana, approaches a KC-135 Stratotanker assigned to the 6th Air Refueling Wing, MacDill AFB, Florida, for fuel over the southeastern United States, Nov. 5, 2024. The B-52 Stratofortress is a long-range, heavy bomber that can perform a variety of missions. As part of the Air Force Global Strike Command, the B-52 enables combat-ready forces to conduct strategic nuclear deterrence and global strike operations in support of combatant commanders. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Mia McNeill)
PHILIPPINE SEA (Feb. 24, 2024) A U.S. Air Force B-52 Stratofortress, attached to the 5th Bomb Wing, and aircraft attached to Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 11, fly in formation over the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71), Feb. 24, 2024. Theodore Roosevelt, flagship of Carrier Strike Group Nine, is underway conducting routine operations in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations. U.S. 7th Fleet is the U.S. Navy’s largest forward-deployed numbered fleet, and routinely interacts and operates with allies and partners in preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific region. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Thomas Gooley)
A B-52, assigned to Minot Air Force Base, sits on the flightline at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii, Nov. 27, 2019. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Jermaine Ayers)
This is a persuadable number of people who aren’t sure about the strikes, but it also shows that President Donald Trump has not articulated the reasoning behind the war in a way that many ordinary Americans understand. One of the problems is that Trump has chosen to address Americans either by social media or short statements at a podium from his home in Mar-a-Lago, Florida. A longer prime-time speech from the Oval Office would perhaps be better to convince the American people about the objectives and goals.
Is This the Next Forever War That Trump Is So Against?
Plus, Trump has admitted that the operation could take more than four weeks and has not ruled out ground troops. This frightens many in both parties that the conflict could become a “forever war”—something that Trump has always criticized. He has run for the White House previously on the promise of no more “stupid” wars in the Middle East.
Few Democrats Are on Board
Democrats’ suspicion of any foreign policy action by the White House is unsurprising, both among the populace and leftist lawmakers on Capitol Hill. That criticism is expected. Democrats want clearer reasoning about the attacks and a full address to everyone in Congress about the need for more strikes against Iran.
Even Some Conservatives Are Reticent
What is most alarming is the lack of support from some Republicans and conservative influencers on social media. “Woke Right” figures like Tucker Carlson are against the war. Carlson, who has historically supported Trump, said that the attack on Iran is “absolutely disgusting and evil.” He also suggested to ABC News that it will have a major effect on Trump’s MAGA base, saying, “This is going to shuffle the deck in a profound way.”
Air Force Rockwell B-1B Lancer 28th Bomb Wing (28 BW) 37th Bomb Squadron Ellsworth Air Force Base – Rapid City, South Dakota
A B-1B Lancer, tail number 86-0094, is moved across Douglas Blvd. to the Maintenance Repair and Overhaul Technology Center (MROTC) to receive an initial portion of Gate 1 of programmed depot maintenance April 21. 567th AMXS personnel will perform three days of maintenance which include single system checks on 40 individual actuators validating voltage outputs as
well as interrogating each actuator for hydraulic leaks. After single systems are completed, the horizontal stabilizers will be removed from the aircraft. This is the first time that horizontal stabilizers have ever been removed at the MROTC. Once complete, the aircraft and horizontal stabilizers will be brought back across Douglas to the 569th AMXS strip facility for plastic media blasting. Once stripped, the horizontal stabilizers will be routed to the 76th Commodities Maintenance Group for overhaul and repairs. (U.S. Air Force photo/Kelly White)
Former Trump acolyte Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene has grave reservations about the war and considers the action to be un-MAGA and not “America First.”
“Popular pro-Trump podcaster Tim Pool also blasted the action by the administration as a betrayal of Trump’s campaign platform, while MAGA influencers Keith and Kevin Hodge wrote in an online post, ‘Freeing the people of Iran is not why I voted for Trump,’” ABC reported.
Conservative stalwart Matt Walsh, always a Trump proponent, blasted the decision for the Iranian attacks and said he doesn’t think the administration sufficiently made its case. “The messaging on this thing is, to put it mildly, confused,” Walsh posted on X.
One of the problems has been that different members of the Trump national security team have divergent claims on why the attacks are necessary. This, as Walsh has pointed out, has been confusing and frustrating even to normal MAGA supporters. Some skeptics point toward a statement by Secretary of State Marco Rubio that appeared to make Israel the lead party in the conflict.
Is Israel in Control?
“We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action,” Rubio told journalists Monday night from Capitol Hill. “We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces. And we knew that if we didn’t preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties.”
This is not a clarifying statement, and it made some wonder if Israel is pushing the Trump administration to act more aggressively than it would have otherwise.
Keep This Effort Short and Safe
The main issues that guide support for wars are the duration of the conflict and casualties. The more American citizens die and the longer the conflict lasts, the more Trump will bleed support. The death toll is now at six U.S. military personnel, and we are still in the first week of the operation. But if Trump’s war lasts longer than a month, and if he orders troops to enter Iranian borders and the U.S. military takes more casualties, more people will come out against the war.
A U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancer, attached to the 34th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron, Ellsworth Air Force Base, South Dakota, flies over the Pacific Ocean after taking off from Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, June 12, 2022. Bomber Task Force missions contribute to joint force lethality and deter aggression in the Indo-Pacific by demonstrating the United States Air Force’s ability to operate anywhere in the world at any time in support of the National Defense Strategy. (U.S. Air Force Photo by Tech. Sgt. Chris Hibben)
The best Trump can do is hit hard and quick, win decisively, and take a fast off-ramp with a small number of Americans killed or wounded. The Trump team, including Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine, the intelligence community, and Republican Members of Congress, must get on the same page. They are putting out statements with different talking points.
This conflict is frustrating for many, and the majority of Americans would like it to end. Trump could be falling into a quagmire that is similar to other regime change efforts in the Middle East that have cost so much blood and treasure. The American people are not fully convinced of the need to strike Iran, and Trump’s political support could get even worse if things go badly during the war.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood
Author of now over 3,000 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
