As winter sets in, the fighting in Ukraine will slow. Both sides will use the downtime to resupply and refit for next year’s warm weather fighting season. So this is an excellent time to take stock of where the conflict stands after ten months and look for larger trends above the ebb and flow of the frontlines.
Four major geopolitical takeaways stand out:
Russian Decline
No matter how the war unfolds in the next year or two (and it looks set to drag on), Russian power has been badly reduced.
Russian President Vladimir Putin planned a short war that would illustrate Russian military might and bolster his country’s claim to sit at the high table of world politics, despite a corrupted economy too small for a great power.
Instead, Putin has stumbled into a quagmire akin to the Soviet war in Afghanistan in the 1980s or the American war in Vietnam.
America’s quagmires, such as the Iraq counterinsurgency, were costly and domestically disruptive, but enormous size of the US economy and the popular legitimacy of its democratic system insured that American could wind down its losing wars without a massive rupture.
Russia does not have this luxury. Its economy is 7% of the size of America’s; to fight a long war will be profoundly economically disruptive. And Putin’s dictatorship is fundamentally unstable. Putin is vulnerable to a coup if he does not win his war of choice in Ukraine.
More broadly, Russia’s poor performance in the war abolishes the myth of Russian military modernization – that despite its shaky economy, Russia is still a great power because of its military prowess. This is no longer credible; Russia is losing to a country whose military no one took seriously a year ago. Russia’s economy is only in the world’s top twenty now, and the war-related sanctions will shrink it out of the group in a year or so.
In short, neither Russia’s economic capacity nor its military capabilities justify calling Russia a great power anymore.
Ukraine’s Rise
Just about everyone thought the Russians would roll over Ukraine. Early western discussion focused on whether we should support an insurgency there against the victorious Russians. Yet by the late spring, it was apparent there was no blitzkrieg victory to be had. Ukraine would survive as a sovereign state even if Russia held some of its territories. And by the fall, opinion began to suggest that Ukraine was actually winning and that Putin might use a nuclear weapon in desperation.
It is worth remembering in hindsight how remarkable this is. Putin expected to win his war in a week. Western opinion concurred. Few observers knew anything about Ukraine, much less the Ukrainian military.
Yet Ukraine is now on course to win the war; even re-taking Crimea from Russia is a genuine possibility. Although Ukraine’s economy is being wrecked by the conflict, the country will emerge with arguably the finest ground force in Europe, an achievement no one foresaw in January.
If Russia is on the downward cusp of becoming a middle power, Ukraine is on the upward cusp.
NATO is Back
Yet another remarkable geopolitical outcome is the rejuvenation of NATO.
For years after the Cold War, NATO drifted. It never quite broke up, if only because its European members liked the US security umbrella. But it lacked a clear strategic purpose. It tried to find that in out-of-area deployments during the war on terror.
But few members like these deployments. Nor did they go particularly well – no one really knew what ‘winning’ the war on terror meant. And it all ended with an unsatisfying whimper in Afghanistan in 2021.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ended this malaise. Years of Putin’s vague threats and belligerence suddenly became concrete. NATO members like Germany and Italy who had tried to engage Putin could no longer avoid the long-standing Russian neo-imperialist fears of the alliance’ eastern members. The United States too, after the confusion about NATO during the Donald Trump presidency, re-engaged. The alliance also brought in two new members and has sought to build bridges to Asian democracies concerned about China.
So long as Putin remains in power, this new community spirit in NATO will remain.
There is no ‘Ukraine Model’
February’s declaration of alignment between Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping unnerved small states everywhere.
It appeared that China was endorsing Putin’s Ukraine invasion, and indeed, China has stood behind Russia throughout the war. Taiwan particularly feared that Putin was creating a ‘model’ by which a large autocracy neighboring a small democracy might use territorial and cultural grievances to justify an invasion.
This may indeed be what China was hoping. Xi’s rhetoric on Taiwan is tougher than that of his predecessors. But the ‘model’ has gone badly awry. Russia has found the absorbing a patriotic people committed to defending their sovereignty is far harder than expected. Also, Western unity behind Ukraine has not cracked, as Putin apparently expected, under the pressure of nuclear threats and rising fuel costs. And Western sanctions on Russia have also been tougher than Putin likely expected.
This does not mean China will desist from attacking Taiwan. But it should at least give it pause that it will not be easy or quick.
These are all positive trends for democracy. Ukraine’s pain has been enormous, but it is defending democracy and demonstrating that autocracy is not stronger than open societies. Let us hope, then, in the new year, that it continues its successful counteroffensive against imperialist aggression.
Expert Biography: Dr. Robert E. Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly; RoberEdwinKelly.com) is a professor in the Department of Political Science at Pusan National University and 19FortyFive Contributing Editor.
Paddy Manning
December 22, 2022 at 8:25 am
What confusion over NATO in the Trump years? Trump told Germany to up its military spending to 2% of GDP and idiots laughed.
Not laughing now
403Forbidden
December 22, 2022 at 8:45 am
Disaster is how ukraninian people got totally hoodwinked by biden and stoltenberg and herr zelenskiyy.
Russia has certainly paid a price for PROTECTING the russian-speaking inhabitants of donbass, and this will be viewed positively by future historians.
On the other hand, people in the future will recognize the terrible galloping advance of ultra sophisticated fascism or woke fascism in the 21st century.
Anyone still remember abu ghraib ??? Anybody? Woke fascism in its finest display sealed in panaranomic full color photos and permanently available on the world wide web.
Goran
December 22, 2022 at 9:21 am
The longer this lasts, the deeper the hole Russia will find itself in.
Paul
December 22, 2022 at 10:11 am
Goran…it will all be over by Summer
Paul
December 22, 2022 at 10:13 am
So, a poly sci professor does not know that tracked vehicles do quite well over frozen ground
Infantry Grunt
December 22, 2022 at 11:15 am
KGB Putler is very likely to “accidentally” fall out of a basement window in the very near future — just like many of his oligarchs have…
BTW, Ex-CEO of Russian state space corporation Roscosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, was injured in an attack on a party he was holding for fellow military advisors in RuSSian-occupied Donetsk.
There is also video online showing him participating in neo-Nazi rallies and giving Nazi salutes.
He must be tight with Putin’s Chef, Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the neo-Nazi PMC Wagner group, which was named in honor of the favorite German composer of the Nazis.
Jacksonian Libertarian
December 22, 2022 at 11:24 am
As one of those that disputed the common wisdom that Russia would win in 3 days, I’m giving myself a pat on the back. The measurement that Russia had Ukraine out gunned 3 to 1, was an apples and oranges comparison.
Combat Power rule of thumb: 1 smart weapon = 500 dumb weapons
Ukraine had been supplied with Javelin ATGMs as well as other western smart weapons. The modern battlefield has evolved and the Industrial Age dumb weapons (tanks, cannons, aircraft, etc.) most use to judge combat power have become obsolete in the Information Age.
Another reason Ukraine is superior is a difference between the militaries of Authoritarian Cultures and Democratic Cultures.
1. Authoritarian Cultures have “Regime Protection Armies” that are good at rooting out disloyalty, but not good at fighting other armies (Authoritarians fear rebellion more than invasion).
2. Democratic Cultures have “Field Armies” whose troops are encouraged to take the initiative, and engage targets of opportunity, something Regime Protection troops are not trusted (rebellion) to do.
Finally, Authoritarian Cultures are hundreds of times more corrupt, and their militaries are hollowed out by thieving officers stealing whatever they can get away with. This results in low quality weapons, poorly supplied armies, low morale, and a focus on looting, rape, and murder in the field. In Authoritarian Cultures political power negates the “Rule of Law”, and this is reflected not only in the economy, but the military as well.
Gary Jacobs
December 22, 2022 at 11:53 am
Paul said it pretty well… the Ukrainians need the ground to freeze so maneuvers can begin again. If some of the streams freeze, it will be even more ideal than summer time.
Unfortunately the rain/mud came early this year, and the freeze is coming late. Otherwise Ukraine would have taken Svatove, Kremmina, and more by now. As it is, I have seen the mud toss around massive MaxxPro MRAPs like they were kids toys.
As well, the Ruble is in the process of cratering again. over 70r for $1. The Euro is nearing 80-1. As well, Russian Ural oil is still about $50, and more countries are cancelling arms sales from Russia – India, Egypt, and more.
Then there is the complete waste of expensive missiles on terrorising Ukrainian civilians by bombing their power supply. 50+ countries are sending generators and transformers. The time to repair is about to get even shorter than before.
That’s all a recipe for disaster in Russia’s economy.
And their war effort is going even worse.
Have a liberating day.
Gary Jacobs
December 22, 2022 at 11:58 am
403forgotten,
Your troll routine is so phony, predictable, and hypocritical.
You mention Abu Ghraib, and yet Eleven US soldiers were convicted of crimes relating to the Abu Ghraib scandal. Seven of those were from Maryland-based 372nd Military Police Company.
Whereas Russia is passing a law making all crimes committed by Russians null and void as long as they serve the interests of Russia. If you are not sure how rape, torture and looting serves the purpose of Russia…all one has to do is take an honest look at centuries of Russian history…because all of those things are standard operating procedure for Russian Imperialists.
You should especially go have a read of
Gendered Violence: Jewish Women in the Pogroms of 1917 to 1921
Irina Astashkevich
Series: Jews of Russia & Eastern Europe and Their Legacy
In this time period (1917-1921), there were “over a thousand pogroms in about five hundred localities.” Astashkevich considers this a “genocide” and the frequent, systematic use of rape as a weapon may be considered “genocidal rape.” Lives—as well as minds—were lost, entire communities were erased, some women attempted suicide, some succeeded, others stopped menstruating, some had to be psychiatrically hospitalized, most were afraid to go out forever afterwards. Such “violent riots” were scripted and “aimed to ensure social death along with the physical extermination … many shtetls were destroyed never to be rebuilt.”
Rinse and repeat this story of Russian brutality over and over and over and over… and you Putinista troll schtick blaming Ukraine for everything and Russia for nothing becomes a fool’s errand by troll farm livestock.
Have a liberating day.
Rick
December 22, 2022 at 12:41 pm
As much as Vlad would liken himself to Peter the Great it is more likely he is introduced to gravity before that ever happens.
Jim
December 22, 2022 at 1:11 pm
A disaster for Russia, if they lose the war.
Whoever loses… nobody knows what will happen.
Those that predict Ukraine will win have been saying Ukraine is “winning” the whole time for ten months, ongoing.
I do expect decisive events in the coming months.
Events that can’t be lied about or spun by a compliant media… or armchair warriors.
Then we will see the fallout, whichever way it goes.
The stakes are high all around.
It’s premature to claim it’s a disaster for Russia… nobody knows how it will go… until those decisive actions are taken.
404
December 22, 2022 at 2:43 pm
403, you didnt get memo.
Russian army pulled back.
Now rating dropped to 2nd best army in Ukraine.
Robert M Freeman
December 22, 2022 at 2:56 pm
This is typical of the cartoonish read meat this site dishes out to its base in the pretense of providing meaningful analysis. For example:
“Vladimir Putin planned a short war”
• The author cannot know this. Can not. His pretending to more certitude than is possible is proof of his partisan hyperbole masquerading as analysis. More likely, Putin planned a gradual war to win acceptance among the Russian citizenry. It’s worked. Acceptance of the war, and Putin’s popularity are both above 80%, vastly higher than comparable ratings in the U.S., for the war or for Biden.
“Russia’s poor performance in the war…”
• Who is performing poorly? Russia controls 20% of Ukraine’s territory…it destroyed Ukraine’s air force on the ground on the second day of the war, just after it finished destroying Ukraine’s command and control centers on the first day…it has just finished destroying more than half of Ukraine’s electrical power grid in a matter of weeks, with no Russian casualties…Ukraine, according to the President of the European Commission, has lost more than 100,000 troops. That’s a per capita rate 160 TIMES greater than U.S. losses in Vietnam. Once again, who is performing poorly?
…opinion began to suggest that… Putin might use a nuclear weapon in desperation.
• What “opinion”? That of militarist influencers, like the present author? This is how the U.S. lays the predicate for false flag operations, witness its false flags re: use of chemical weapons in Syria. Russian doctrine explicitly eschews nuclear first use. U.S. doctrine explicitly does not. Witness, Hiroshima.
The alliance [NATO] also brought in two new members.
• Simply a lie, straight up. The last country admitted to NATO was Macedonia, in 2020. Google “NATO Enlargement.”
These are all positive trends for democracy.
• This is when you know it’s really propaganda. Ukraine is not a democracy. The government was installed in the 2014 fascist Maidan coup carried out by the U.S. Zelensky has outlawed competing political parties, shut down all non-government-sanctioned media outlets, installed his Kleptocratic thugs into all positions of power, and more. Ukraine is simply a useful proxy for the U.S. so it doesn’t have to lose its own people in the fighting. That’s when Vietnam went south…when working and middle class white boys began coming home in body bags. Democracy has nothing to do with it, except to mesmerize the gullible with enculturated buzz words.
tarek
December 22, 2022 at 4:29 pm
Dear Robert Kelly
Are you paid to publish this garbage ? i hope you dont believe your own lalaland analysis….ukraine army was evaporated
Simple verified facts…
nato is figthing directly war against russia (500 satellites thousand of missiles millions of shell tanks….)… more and more us/nato boots are on the ground every passing day…
the real question is when will u stop to fight this proxy war and declare officially the war… i know that us leaders think they could break russia in a few days ….please help yourselves and make the call….we ll see what geniuses will spring out of the matriochka
Rick
December 22, 2022 at 7:25 pm
tarek, It’s amusing you have to claim US/NATO troops are in the fight to justify the humiliation Ukraine has handed putin. How does it feel to know your army can’t beat a small dedicated group of Ukrainians?
Happy HIMARS and Patriot batteries.
Goran
December 22, 2022 at 8:55 pm
Robert M Freeman: “Who is performing poorly?”
What is more likely to happen, Zaporizhia being taken by Russian military or Melitopol being taken by Ukrainians? I think that Ukrainians have the advantage and that Melitopol will be taken during summer months, can you make equally detailed prediction so we have something to go off of?
TheDon
December 23, 2022 at 12:15 am
Just for trolls.
No one takes 100,000 strategic deaths.
Putin invaded Ukraine with his own plan , not including the expertise of his generals.
Russia is regrouping. The hatred however is much deeper because of deaths. Even if Russian soldiers advance, ukraine has 43 million citizens who will continue fighting.
How many Russian lives does Putin consider a “win”?
Its an honor for Ukranians to die. I dont think the same in Russia. I believe most Russians are against this war.
I personally feel for the Russians and Ukrainians. So much common ancestry, beliefs.
Irrogance has resulted in many poor outcomes.
Andrew P
December 23, 2022 at 10:27 am
It ain’t over till its over. Russia has been performing poorly throughout the war, but both sides are low on ammunition. Nobody can predict with confidence where it all ends up.
Robert M Freeman
December 23, 2022 at 12:03 pm
Goran,
Notice that you are unable to deny a single fact that I’ve presented to show that the Russians are winning, and big. Not one. So, you want to shift the field of argument to the speculative—what might happen in the future. Not interesting. Let’s deal with reality as it IS, as we can DOCUMENT, not as it MIGHT be, or as we WISH it were.
Here is one more reality that bodes ill for Ukraine. They (meaning Ukraine/NATO/US) have no defense whatsoever against Russia’s hypersonic missiles. The Zircons and Kinzahls, Iskander and Avangard missiles are able to pick off Ukrainian assets at hundreds of kilometers with astonishing accuracy, down to the level of individual radar stations, rocket launchers, artillery pieces, tanks, etc. To say nothing of the much larger and more critical power stations, armories, bridges, rail yards, weapons depots, water treatment plants, etc.
This is how they were able to take out half of the Ukrainian power grid in a matter of weeks, with essentially no losses of troops. They are shooting fish in a barrel. The asymmetry of deliverable destructive power is astounding, perhaps only ever equaled in the history of warfare by the possession of the atomic bomb by the U.S. at the end of WWII.
The U.S. does not have a single working hypersonic missile and is believed to be 5 years behind Russia. What’s you speculation on how this ends up for Ukraine?
Neofeudalfuture
December 23, 2022 at 12:18 pm
Ukraine is already a failed state. Did you not see the aid is also to keep its government running? There’s no economy in Ukraine once the aid stops it will immediately stop.
Ukraine has banned opposition parties and jailed its leaders. You can tell yourself its just rooting out pro Russian traitors, but this stuff is about unchallenged power, not democracy.
And millions of Ukrainians have left forever and its looking like there’s so many casualties combined with a low birth rate Ukraine won’t ever recover. It was already dying. And do you think without a 100billion dollars and counting Ukraine would have performed the same?
I don’t
Goran
December 23, 2022 at 1:17 pm
Robert M Freeman: “Notice that you are unable to deny a single fact that I’ve presented to show that the Russians are winning, and big.”
One of the most meaningful measures of success would be a shift in where the front lines are, that’s why I asked for your opinion on where the front lines may be six months from now. Those who insist that Russia is winning should be able to come up with some sort of prediction. Look at poor Daniel Davis, first saying that the Russian military would take Odessa, then saying that Ukrainians would have their asses handed to them while taking back Kherson, why can’t you be more like Daniel Davis?
Goran
December 23, 2022 at 1:32 pm
Neofeudalfuture, you are right, Ukraine is not in the best shape, but its people seem to be enthusiastic about having a future outside the Russian sphere of influence, once free and guided by EU standards in education, business and so on, chances of success of such an ingenious and motivated lot are pretty good.
MaxAmoeba
December 23, 2022 at 2:39 pm
A disaster for Zelensky you hacks.
Attila
December 23, 2022 at 4:23 pm
Russia warns US of direct conflict if they continue to arm Ukraine ??, I think they are better to warn themselves for Russia is no match for the US never mind NATO.rusdia live in a bubble and it will be burst soon enough with out asking fir it to be, putin has help from Ukraine,Syria,Iran ,North Korea just shows how pathetic and weak Russian military is it has this help plus thousands of mercenaries from goodness knows where and they still think their warnings carry any significance or worry to the western world no way . Putin Russia has bluffed for 20 years till it recently exposed their pathetic ,inept ,useless, clueless military to the world and they became a laughing stock and can no longer threaten any one with out nukes they are terrorist cowards and third world terrorist neo nazi scum of the universe they have gone as low as they can go the are total barbarians a 3rd world nation of scum that still lives in the 4th century
tarek
December 23, 2022 at 5:34 pm
Dear Attila , Rick
continue to vomit ur lalaland military analysis … we know what we are facing … the west has unleashed a full war against us…. militaraly using the scumbag western ukros as cannon fodder…economically .stealing russia reserves and trying to destroy our whole economy…we are full of ressources proactive and reactive people ….. so as i said before ….make the call and launch ur missiles and fighters against russia ….we ll see what will happen ….as we say in russia… око за око
Goran
December 23, 2022 at 7:03 pm
tarek, let’s pretend everyone wants a compromise, what could that compromise look like?
To show you what I mean, I’ll give an example; Russians in Ukraine get a non-territorial autonomy (covering education, culture etc), Crimea is leased to Russia for a period of 50 years, Ukrainian security forces in Donbas have a guaranteed participation quota for Russian speaking citizens and so on. What are your ideas?
Rick
December 23, 2022 at 7:35 pm
tarek,
If the US/NATO put boots on the ground in Ukraine Crimea would be liberated and your drunken conscripts would have turned tail or surrendered.
It’s amusing that you think you are a superpower after so many humiliations inflicted by Ukraine.
Jacksonian Libertarian
December 23, 2022 at 8:48 pm
Goran, you’ve been reading my posts.
You are correct that in the “fog of war” the only truth is the “front Lines”. Like the “market price” in competitive free markets, the “front lines” are the “market price” of war. I’ve been saying this for years.
You are also correct about Davis and his predictions, that use no supporting strategic principles, and which apparently assume everyone should just bend over for the cowardly little poisoner Putin. (I stopped reading his Putin Propaganda)
The “4 step Scientific Method” uses predictions to disprove hypotheses.
1. Observation
2. Hypothesis
3. Prediction
4. Experimentation
Science advances by disproving false hypotheses. It doesn’t prove anything true, it only elevates surviving hypotheses to theories that are still standing.
Prediction: Ukraine, logistically supplied (gratis) by the deep pockets west, will continue to destroy the Russian military, which is logistically “scraping the bottom of the barrel” buying Iranian and North Korean ordnance.
“Captains should study tactics, but Generals must study logistics.”
Combat Power rule of thumb: 1 smart weapon = 500 dumb weapons
Is it suspicious that so many of the Putin Nomenklatura have fallen to their deaths since February? “If you lay down with dogs, you will wake up with fleas.”
David N. Tate
December 23, 2022 at 10:24 pm
The Russian Federation is fighting the United States, European Union, and NATO in the Ukrainian proxy war. NATO member states spend well over $1.1 Trillion annually on defense. The poor Russian Federation spends far less than $70 Billion annually on defense. The Russian Federation can’t defend itself against the NATO alliance. NATO is the most powerful military alliance on Earth. The European Union and NATO are attempting to gain control of the European continent from the Atlantic to the Ural mountains.
Robert M Freeman
December 23, 2022 at 11:07 pm
Goran,
This is the compromise: Russia keeps the Donbass and Crimea. Ukraine agrees to remain neutral vis-à-vis NATO.
Why is this the likely compromise?
1. Facts on the ground. Russia occupies the Donbas and Crimea now and Ukraine has no capacity to reverse that. In fact, they will lose more ground before it is over.
2. The people in the Donbas are ethnically, culturally, linguistically, and religiously Russian. That’s why they voted overwhelmingly to be absorbed into Russia.
3. The right of self-determination is more elemental in International Law than is state sovereignty, because it is self-determination that leads to the existence of the state, only after which sovereignty comes into existence.
4. Ukraine under Yatsenyuk, Poroshenko, and Zelensky forfeited the right to rule the Donbas when they killed 14,000 Donbas citizens between 2014 and 2022.
5. They further forfeited the right when they betrayed their words on Minsk1 and 2, which Angela Merkel has revealed were always a fraud. They are not honorable stewards of the well-being of the Donbass people.
6. Because of 2, 3, 4, and 5, above, the people of Donbas will never consent to be ruled by Ukrainians. Ukraine is better off without them and their lurking resistance and subversion.
7. The U.S. is laying pipe to abandon Zelensky, with SoS Blinken signaling that he (Z) needs to be more open to compromise on territorial issues. Without the $10-odd billion per month from the U.S. and EU, how many hours do you think Zelensky will last? His motivation to compromise along these lines will be existential.
This is what and why the ultimate compromise will look like.
dave
December 24, 2022 at 12:27 am
The author doesn`t have a clue!Russia will win the conflict. Putin didn`t want this fight against former comrades. that`s why he didn`t go all out like we did pretty much everywhere. Utilities were on in whole country until recently. Didn`t hit trains, etc, that`s all changed. It`s like USA fighting Canada.We wouldn`t want to needlessly destroy infrastructure, and have civilian collateral damege. A retired air force general said yesterday NATO forces in Europe couldn`t beat the Russians. They are 5 years ahead in missile technology. We have NOTHING to stop there hypersonic missiles. We don`t have any! We spend 10 times what Russia does on the military. They get more bank for their bucks.
Goran
December 24, 2022 at 8:57 am
Robert M Freeman: “The right of self-determination is more elemental in International Law than is state sovereignty, because it is self-determination that leads to the existence of the state, only after which sovereignty comes into existence.”
I disagree, but if you insist, does that apply to ethnic groups living in Russia that in two years time may decide to carve out their own country? If you had to guess how many ethnic groups live in Russia and how many of them are ripe for an institutional distancing from the Kremlin, what would your guess be?
Don’t tell me we can break up Ukraine through self determination but when it comes to Russia, that rule suddenly doesn’t apply.
Alexis's family met a drone strike
December 28, 2022 at 11:52 pm
Dear 403:
Smile for the camera. We’ll erase you like we did with that vatnik Alexis.